i think the reward of having bitcoin around 55K outweigh the benefit of not having bitcoin despite the fact that it might have a small chance of going around 40k.
a 4 year cycle chance to buy low and sell high.
bullish higher timeframe.
notice something that is currently building up based on 2 previous cycle?
everytime we have a pump around 50%, we will have a retracement and the chance to buy the dip for the ones getting sidelined.
Soon we can deploy our stable into spot again.
Retracement to the upside should happen anytime by now or the next few days.
But my bias is gonna be shorting the retracement. The market structure and all timeframe candlestick such as 4h 12h 1d is still bearish until that 74.9k get taken out
Sit out and relax until the market gives you the opportunity to trade
I will explain this
When you see stuff like this, 99% of the time the coin is controlled by a cabal group and they are dumping it from side wallets.
These wallets serve as a supply control, so the cabal is safe nobody else will dump and make them lose money. Also it’s a decoy to serve as a “conviction wallet”.
With every significant coin pump the cabal sells, from $5k up to $20k sells, depending on the liquidity, sometimes even more. This is again with every pump.
I saw this way too many times in 2024 and I see the same plays happening now in 2026 on Robinhood probably from the same cabal groups.
They are not active on CT or rarely you see them post about the coins and by looking at their profiles you would have never guessed its them.
people shorting today are getting rekt. if you wanna short, short when market structure signals it. dont blindly ape into shorts thinking that "the resistance" will hold
1 thing i learned from my past mistake is that, once you search about 1 thing. it will flood your timeline. makes you think about fomoin onto the token you see.
Blindly aping from one to another. it starts small, until you didnt even realize that its eating up your intended allocation porto, and once the market maker done its job, it might be too late for you to get out, hoping that the token pump 1 more time just for you to get into break even point with your capital.
Remember guys, its a long term game to preserve and grow your capital
Too much information can be a double sword.
So many bullish posting, starting from traders, trenchers and such.
Just focus on your edge
The temptation to try new stuff and learn new things is very high. But i dont think the rewards compared to learning curve, cost and time is worth it during the bull market when its back on
In this moment, its best to ape into alt that you think have potential with calculated risk to the downside that you can accept. I know most alt have fly high
But remember, in bull run, most token goes insane, just not all
So choose yours wisely
I personally pick
aster-2:native basically supported by Cz and from a price action point of view, the downside is limited
ethereum:0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be alternative to deribit, but since deribit has no token, the next option is just derive
Im aiming for solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn as well but the RR is just bad already
The allocation to these token will be relatively small
Insane imbalance orderbook in S&P500 , someone knows something
Not to mention we have bearish engulfing candle on weekly S&P500
Just something worth watching
Closed the trade early, dont like the price action, but surely will look for another entry at the beginning of next week for short. especially with bearish engulfing forming
UBS SEES S&P 500 BULL RUN EXTENDING
UBS raised its S&P 500 targets to 8,100 for December 2026 and 8,400 for June 2027, citing stronger earnings and resilient growth.
The bank now expects EPS of $350 in 2026 and $400 in 2027, driven by strength in technology, semiconductors and energy.
UBS remains bullish on resilient economic growth, a patient Fed and accelerating AI adoption.
Key risks include higher oil prices, renewed inflation and disappointing AI returns.
Real talk
If you’re on the wrong side during a big move like this, most of your immediate impulses are gonna suck
Greatest hits:
1. Revenge short - Can’t believe I missed this piece of shit scam pumping; it’s up so much it HAS to come down
2. Oversized buy - I will use leverage as a time travel machine to make up for being late
3. TA cope - It has to retest the exact level it broke out from immediately because I watched two whole Babypips videos on 1.5x speed
4. All-or-nothing - My only options are 0%. exposure or 100%, nothing in between exists
5. Deer in headlights - oh geez I guess I should wait for a pullback but no what if the consolidation is the pullback hmm maybe I’ll wait for a range to form but what if that range breaks down do I buy the retest of the breakout or the range reclaim oh man fuck shit what’s Ansem saying
6. Overtrader - I will cement my bloodline on the 5 minute chart; if this next candle is the wrong colour I will either be rich or poor
Just chill out, delete your levels, pretend you haven’t looked at the chart in weeks - fresh eyes
Then it’s the usual list of simple questions:
1. What signals are firing / what do I think is gonna happen
2. What kind of bet am I making (mean reversion/volatility expansion/new trend/momentum/Blackrock scam etc.) and on what time horizon
3. Where am I wrong
4. Does my position size match the current volatility and align with the shape of my trade idea i.e. points 1-3
FWIW I’m washed but gonna try to jam some spot sub 70k. If it gets accepted below 66-67k (retraces the breakout) then I’ll lose money
“Wow it’s up so much what you buy the top?”
Then I’ll lose money and look silly on social media. That’s the cost of doing business (at least the first one).
Just start LARPing like everyone else and instead of saying “I bought the top” say “I aggressively rebalanced when an ensemble of carefully weighed momentum factor signals fired contemporaneously.”
people are getting mix arguments between bull and bear in here. if in the next 2 weeks we cant get a brutal weekly candle to the upside, the bottom is not in
just my POV