Tige Savage

Revolution Co-Founder. VC. Sailor. Pilot. Diver. Skier. Dad. Optimist. #GoBlue

[Andrew Romans @romansventures]

Episode #102 Fireside with a VC speaking with Tige Savage @tigesavage who cofounded Revolution with Steve Case, founder of AOL

YouTube: https://t.co/9tQluPtM5Z.

All podcast platforms here: https://t.co/wlDwysPiwf.

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

3 min of @AdamMGrant wisdom https://t.co/9TjnfiNp6Q

[Alex Shtarkman @AlexShtarkman]

My review of 2023 #vc trends and 2024 #proptech predictions

1️⃣ More distress and “medicine taking”
2️⃣ More consolidation / restructuring
3️⃣ More M&A (equity only)
4️⃣ Shut down of proptech funds, CVCs, etc.
5️⃣ #GenAI will not be a "silver bullet"

Link: https://t.co/2BwVlO7hEG

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I believe that long-term rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.

The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains.

Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production.

The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating.

Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds.

The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’

Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024.

The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now.

I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’

I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now.

The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world.

And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today.

It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation.

But I could be wrong. AI might save us.

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

This guy was special.

[Alex Shtarkman @AlexShtarkman]

Whether you are a #proptech founder, investor, or #RE professional, everyone should reflect on this statistic - 85% of founders believe their proptech VCs (with real estate LPs) have NOT delivered on the promise of value add. Why? Read the full story here: https://t.co/7mnO61yO18

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

The triumph of innovation over imagination https://t.co/ieE7y0vRlm

[Revolution @revolution]

📣 #DurhamNC: Catch Revolution Ventures Managing Partner, @tigesavage, and @bcvp general partner, @jcaplain, at @AmerUnderground on Monday for a conversation on the state of VC. Register for the 11/7 event. 🗓️ ⤵️ https://t.co/rsmYn7J659

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

@jharinstein And other kids can’t drive the car…

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

Teach your kids to drive a stick, while you/they still can. It’s good for their souls. And makes them better drivers… https://t.co/CR08ZGpdw1

[Revolution @revolution]

We see you, @theminthouse. 🤩 https://t.co/JCJoQUcLqh

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

What we’ll be eating in 10, 20, 100 years https://t.co/XWQJ7MYBUo

[Alex Shtarkman @AlexShtarkman]

Congratulations @WillLucasMH1, @samanthajoyg314, and the entire @theminthouse team on your $35M Series B! Through thick and thin, pandemic and market volatility, consumers have voted with their wallets - residential hospitality is here to stay with MH leading the way!

[Revolution @revolution]

In the next 3 years, what VCs will endure? According to @TigeSavage, investors with deep industry specialization, a hands-on ability to drive incremental value, or both — and great entrepreneurs are poised to benefit. Read why in @Protocol. ⤵️ https://t.co/q3Oy6fK5LS

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

#GreatAmerican https://t.co/lmYBJmLXXs

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

@jharinstein You’re in my prayers

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

Moderation? Yes, please. @peggynoonannyc https://t.co/ot2vEdAD4q

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

This guy represents everything that’s right with sports. It’s nice to have a modern professional athlete you can point your kids to as an example to follow. Zim is that guy

[ziMS Foundation @ziMSFoundation]

Today, Ryan is announcing his retirement from the game of baseball. We are so proud and honored of what Ryan has done both on and off the field, and are excited for what will come next. Here is a message from Employee #11.

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

Guilty.

[Tige Savage @tigesavage]

And here's why sports TV rights are so expensive...

https://t.co/chWmMCuQK9 #axiosam