The S&P 500 has largely trended sideways for the past few months, as strong fundamental tailwinds were offset by the headwinds of higher oil prices and interest rates.
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The S&P 500 has largely moved sideways since early August, as it attempts to shake off the headwinds of high oil prices and interest rates. Beneath the surface, the impact of these factors have been much more acute.
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We are maintaining an upward bias on equities as we enter a seasonally strong period for stocks, which, combined with improving fundamentals, supports our constructive outlook into year-end.
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The S&P 500 index has largely grinded sideways for the last two months, weathering the impact of higher oil prices and interest rates.
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Shifting Market Leadership: Market leadership has shifted in the wake of the latest Federal Reserve decision with market appetite for risk improving.
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$100 oil and 5% 10-year Treasury yields are the main focus. Not only at elevated levels, but their rate of change has been sharp. This can dampen consumption, investment, and economic momentum longer they persist.
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Consolidation Within an Uptrend: The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend but has been consolidating following its early August breakout.
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The S&P 500 has largely consolidated over the past several weeks, following its sharp breakout to new all-time highs in early August.
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Investors Still Rewarded Despite Long List of Concerns: YTD the market has returned double-digit gains, supported by earnings growth and a still constructive economic backdrop.
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Market strength is coming on wide breadth- with the "average S&P stock," small caps, banks, transports, and health care all trading at highs.
On the risk side, there are plenty of variables that could disrupt the momentum.
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Momentum Thrust Pushes S&P 500 to New Highs: The S&P 500 surged more than 5.5% over a five-day period last week, a move exceeding two standard deviations, and strong enough to propel the index to new all-time highs.
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The S&P 500 finished July flat over the prior 1.5 months, but price action has been very eventful under the surface. Economic resilience and earnings strength continue to be the primary driver of equities.
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While the market has continued to trade largely sideways over the past week—a continuation of the trend in place since early June—we view this as a healthy consolidation following the strong advance from March through June.
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Market Backdrop: Healthy Consolidation as the Market Remains Rotational: Equity markets continue to digest the powerful advance that began in March, with major indices largely moving sideways since early June.
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Volatility and market rotation continued, with the S&P 500 taking a breather and consolidating near its 50-DMA. Avoiding a rollover from this area is important for preserving the market's upside trajectory.
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The S&P 500 has shaken off a bit of volatility over the past week, bouncing near June 2nd highs after a -5% 6-day pullback.
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The one-dimensional market since the March lows is finally taking a breather: U.S. equities are digesting recent gains following a strong run, the S&P 500 up roughly 20% and semiconductors also in just a few months.
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The current stretch of 9 consecutive positive weeks is one of the longest historically. Since 1980, there have only been a handful of 8+ consecutive weekly gains.
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Riding the Market Momentum: The S&P 500 has rallied nearly 20% from its late-March, Iran conflict–driven low.
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Following the index's pullback in Q1, there has been some incremental progress in the Middle East (i.e. ceasefire negotiations vs. widespread bombing) and economic data has been resilient through the disruptions.
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