Tim Dowse

Consultant, after 40+ years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury, RUSI. Security, defence, geopolitical assessment. Now mainly posting @timdowse.bsky.social

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@shashj @John_ForemanCBE @GElefteriu What are the assumptions for GDP over the period?

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@shashj @AriFleischer Think some tankers are flying from Bulgaria. But nothing like the usage of Mildenhall, Fairford, Lakenheath, Ramstein, Spangdahlem etc. Your point stands.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@ArmsControlWonk Exactly. Iran was working on missiles capable of reaching Europe in the 1990s - and very probably had ambitions for an ICBM. The surprise would be if they had not made progress since then.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@AlistairBurtUK Very much agree. Particularly true for those of us who grew up in the Cold War years and spent much of our adult lives working in close cooperation with US allies.

[Menna Rawlings @MennaRawlings]

It’s misleading and malicious. The vast majority of @FCDOGovUK people, home and abroad, work their socks off to deliver for Britain - our people, our prosperity and our security. That might not grab the headlines, but it’s the reality.

I’ve left too, but would rather heed this ⬇️

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@JohnRentoul 30

[Hamish Falconer MP @HFalconerMP]

The determination of students in Gaza to pursue their studies against a backdrop of death, destruction and famine is remarkable.

The UK has helped to support students from Gaza to come to the UK to take up their university offers.

https://t.co/Cl2XkT42Rk

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@BRyvkin Reminds me of how Zinoviev reacted when he was told about the fake ‘Zinoviev letter’: “It’s the sort of thing I would have written”. (h/t @GillHistory and her book “The Zinoviev Letter: The Conspiracy that Never Dies”).

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@LizaRosen0000 @BeaverWestminst On the contrary, this footage was shown on the main BBC news bulletin in the UK last night, 23 July.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@SuzanneRaine2 @shashj And btw, “realistic possibility” has always been another of my particular bugbears. It sounds to most people like “more likely than not”. In fact it means the opposite.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@SuzanneRaine2 @shashj Yes. You can’t escape probabilistic language. But keep it simple. If you have to give busy readers a training course or a handbook to understand what you are telling them, you’ve lost the plot.
I also dislike percentages of probability, giving a spurious sense of precision.

[Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office @FCDOGovUK]

At Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport, we have been helping British nationals wanting to leave the region.

British nationals in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories should continue to register their presence to get information on potential further flights.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@RadioFreeTom One of the relatively few occasions when Margaret Thatcher disagreed - strongly - with President Reagan.

[Martin Harris @MartinHarrisOBE]

Another night spent listening to Ukraine’s mobile fire teams battling Russian drones in the skies above Kyiv. And another morning bringing grim news of those killed and injured (including children) in last night’s attack. Russia is relentlessly pursuing war not peace.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@gregbagwell I should perhaps add that I did have plenty of cause to question MOD on other things…

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

Nice surprise to hear @ChrisGreenwayUK turn up on BBC Radio 4 this morning in a programme celebrating the centenary of the shipping forecast!

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

@AlexLuck9 Ah. I clearly need a sense of humour upgrade.

[Tim Dowse @TimDowse]

I wonder what other regimes - particularly in Africa - that have put their security in Russia's hands think, when they see Russia abandoning its longest-serving ally in the Middle East?

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Multiple Russian airlifters have arrived at Khmeimim airbase in Syria, including the massive An-124.

Increasing signs that Russian forces are evacuating their key eastern Mediterranean holdings.