Tim Muirhead

Engineer by trade, trader by profession. 21 years in markets
Markets, charts, sarcasm, occasional banter.
Fully caffeinated

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

It's not that Bitcoin is down 50% that should be concerning to the bulls.

It's down 50% when equity markets are reaching all-time highs. Historically it thrived in risk on environments.

It's flat over 5 years ago with gold up ~150%. Bitcoin starting to look like a digital tulip.

The deeper inefficiency: Why use energy for a mindless guessing game (the bitcoin proof of work) when you can use it to produce intelligence with AI.

No doubt it's been one of the greatest trades of the decade, but all good things come to an end, and Michael Seller might have just put the final nail in the coffin.

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Last ten years.

Gold’s largest drawdown? 23%

vs.

Bitcoin -82%, -58%, -65%, -75%, and now near -50% yet again.

A store of wealth holds its value. It doesn’t lose half its value or more every few years.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

@ealwebster If you compare the intelligence of ham sandwiches to the two major parties, the sandwiches are only half as thick.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

@DavidBCollum You could measure it by taking a jar of your favourite 'substance' into deep space and if left long enough, eventually it will reach the temperature of deep space.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Bearish flag break on bitcoin.
Love it or hate it, it trades very technically.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

David Boon downed 52 beers on a Qantas flight from Sydney to London ahead of the 1989 Ashes.

Then walked out and helped Australia smash England by 210 runs in the First Test.

[Mikli @CryptoMikli]

Steven Bartlett says a few glasses of wine ruined the next 3 days of his life

“It's one of those areas where you don't understand the hidden cost until you really give it up for a while. I stopped drinking at 30 years old. I'm now 33. When I was 31, I thought, I'll have a drink again because now I could really A/B test it. I had a year of not drinking, decided to have a drink again”

“It ruined three days of my life. I had a couple of glasses of wine, didn't get drunk. It ruined three days of my life because of the domino effect it caused”

“I got worse sleep that night, and then because I got worse sleep that night, I ate more poorly the next day because my dopamine system or whatever, the cortisol system was all messed up. I podcasted worse. I didn't go to the gym that day or the day after because I felt really bad. I then slept worse, and I could track all of this on my Whoop”

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

You can trust this guy. He's a man of his word.

[Reuters Business @ReutersBiz]

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the rapid development and adoption of AI would not lead to a global ‘jobs apocalypse’ and the technology had not claimed as many white-collar jobs as he had feared. More here: https://t.co/X5hNGLOxxG

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

@RBASHAGGER I thought this was meant to be a parody account

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

@elonmusk Unpopular take: If Elon really cared about saving people's lives he's make FSD free.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

With the Kospi going vertical on the AI chip boom lead by Samsung and SK Hynix and Korean yields about to break to new highs, someone please explain to me why the Korea won isn't going up.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

24 hours later...

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

US rates pushing. 2s at 4%, 10s near 4.5 and 30's at 5%. These are the levels the market normally starts to pay attention.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Cotton CT giving the tech names a run for their money

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Cotton CT - Nice move out of the multi-year range. The longer the range, the better the moves tend to be.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Welcome to Country doesn’t belong at an Anzac Day dawn service.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Evergreen reminder than Crypto is a rats nest riddled with fraud, scams, rug pulls, money laundering, Ponzi schemes, and phishing attempts.

And if someone steals your private keys- its like losing your money at the beach - there is no one to help

[Zach Rynes | CLG @ChainLinkGod]

Look guys, it's actually really straightforward, a bunch of people staked their ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield, except they didn't want their capital to be locked up, so they actually staked with a liquid staking protocol called Lido who provided them a liquid staking receipt token called stETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer, except they didn't want to lock up their capital, so they actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided them with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH, except they decided to juice their yield further by depositing their rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called Aave so that they could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero that was hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry

[World of Statistics @stats_feed]

🚢 Vessels Crossed Strait of Hormuz

🟢 Feb 26 → 132 vessels
🟢 Feb 27 → 128 vessels
🟡 Feb 28 → 98 vessels
🟠 Mar 01 → 18 vessels
🔴 Mar 02 → 7 vessels
🔴 Mar 03 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 04 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 05 → 1 vessel
❌ Mar 06 → 0 vessels
🔴 Mar 07 → 1 vessel
🔴 Mar 08 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 09 → 1 vessel
🔴 Mar 10 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 11 → 1 vessel
❌ Mar 12 → 0 vessels
🔴 Mar 13 → 3 vessels
🔴 Mar 14 → 1 vessel
❌ Mar 15 → 0 vessels
🔴 Mar 16 → 1 vessel
🔴 Mar 17 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 18 → 1 vessel
❌ Mar 19 → 0 vessels
🔴 Mar 20 → 1 vessel
🔴 Mar 21 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 22 → 3 vessels
🔴 Mar 23 → 5 vessels
🔴 Mar 24 → 6 vessels
🔴 Mar 25 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 26 → 7 vessels
🔴 Mar 27 → 4 vessels
🟠 Mar 28 → 12 vessels
🔴 Mar 29 → 2 vessels
🔴 Mar 30 → 4 vessels
🔴 Mar 31 → 5 vessels
🔴 Apr 1 → 8 vessels
🔴 Apr 2 → 6 vessels
🟠 Apr 3 → 14 vessels
🟠 Apr 4 → 10 vessels
🟠 Apr 5 → 11 vessels
🔴 Apr 6 → 7 vessels
🟠 Apr 7 → 11 vessels
🔴 Apr 8 → 5 vessels
🔴 Apr 9 → 9 vessels
🔴 Apr 10 → 8 vessels
🟠 Apr 11 → 14 vessels
🟠 Apr 12 → 22 vessels
🟠 Apr 13 → 17 vessels
🟠 Apr 14 → 19 vessels
🟠 Apr 15 → 15 vessels
🔴 Apr 16 → 8 vessels
🟠 Apr 17 → 12 vessels
🟠 Apr 18 → 35 vessels
🔴 Apr 19 → 3 vessels

Sources: Windward Maritime Intelligence, Lloyd’s List, PIB India, regional briefings, Maritime News, Kpler Risk and Compliance.

Visualization: Windward Maritime AI

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Cotton leading the charge

[Analogics @HowCanIKelp]

Cotton $CT has taken the lead from Silver $SI on a one-month basis, Copper $HG sliding into 3rd:

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

https://t.co/jbvwYM0FAh

All publicity is good publicity isn't it?

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

ELS, one of the beneficiaries of MOAR war spending....

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Still won't keep up with the NDIS

I wish this was satire.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Australia will reportedly raise defense spending by A$53,000,000,000.00 over the next decade.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Cotton CT - Nice move out of the multi-year range. The longer the range, the better the moves tend to be.

[Tim Muirhead @TimMuirhead]

Cotton CT - multi year break.