Cranjis McBasketball

🏀 Xs & Os • Team & Agent Consulting • @The_BBall_Index Founder • Lakers Exceptionalism Pod

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

If you want more Tim & Tom content, our Discord server is the place to be.

Example: with 24 bonus pods since the start of the regular season, that's an extra pod every ~2 games.

Join any premium tier to get into the Discord for good:
https://t.co/dK4pCTd7YD

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Deuce McBride is the most Cranjis McBasketball IJ name among NBA players

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Here's what the calf strain timeline data looks like. This is one of the wider range of outcomes for that middle 50%.

I plan to use this tool to help ballpark what to expect for various injuries throughout the year.

https://t.co/DYQeroOQ4G

[Jovan Buha @jovanbuha]

We finally have clarity on LA’s injuries.

Adou is dealing with an excess of fluid buildup in his left knee — the same knee he had surgery on last year.

Carr’s “contusion” is actually a right oblique strain — the same injury Austin Reaves dealt with at the end of last season (unclear what grade).

Sexton is dealing with a calf strain.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

I won’t use this to predict the future, given how roster + scheme + possibly defensive roles are each changing, but I’d caution against anchoring to that raw DRtg when expectation setting.

I do separately expect the groups with Kessler out there to be strong on defense. Not as much for the collective set of lineups without him.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Luka + Reaves on-court last season with LeBron off-court had a 110.7 Defensive Rating.

It had a 117.3 expected Defensive Rating based on the luck-adjusted xPoints data we use at BBall Index (what we use to calculate LEBRON).

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Denver ran aggressive coverages the ~same rates as Golden State the game prior.

Just 1 handful of them included actual blitzing.

It’s good to see different looks and put things on film to clean up in practice. It’s not really something to be upset about.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Kessler rightfully gets a lot of credit for cleaning up mistakes (& did a ton yesterday), but I want to shout out Jaden Hardy and Bronny James here.

After Thybulle is beat, Kessler rotates to traps the box and we see Harden sink & get into the dump off guy's body + Bronny bust ass to get to the corner, w/Hardy then full sprint to closeout, Bronny good help & recover forr a heavy contest.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Wrong team, but this was sick

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

DeRozan had been cooking LaRavia all game so LA uses a lurker to provide deterring help.

Help AROUND the paint = middle is open

Denver runs a help beater and gets an easy bucket.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Maybe he's pressing and trying to prove his case to start, but Grimes is making a lot of dumb mistakes on both ends of the court lately

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Ice + Drop from LA and Kessler signals to switch. AR recovers to Jokic, but Grimes is late to go from zoning up to his own man + is in a closed stance and gets back cut

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

@BruddogTecmo For the letter grades it's currently baselining against last season's Lakers performances. For the ones that I can I plan to expand that to be league-wide.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

The Lakers half court offense yesterday was a bit rough

A couple screenshots from the tracker I'll be sharing with the Discord's Courtside tier this year.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Denver going 4-out 1-in with a lob threat in the short corner + deep corners running Murray/Jokic high P&R vs drop is so hard to guard.

Trevon Brazile fits that dump off guy job well

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

@RyanParsons31 I have a bunch of little tweaks to make and then will have it up! Lots of views to build out.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

In Q1 LA was consistently in drop with their Centers

One benefit of drop/switching (vs hedging) is your low man doesn't need to rotate each screen and you don't need to sink or fill behind it.

That's supposed to limit dump off buckets like this. Luka should stay home here.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

@RichStapless Of course! And I’m happy to answer questions whenever as well

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Help Counter Rate for the Lakers half court offense in preseason the last 3 years:

2024-25: 52%
2025-26: 14%
2026-27: 11%

This is the % of plays LA attempts a counter w/cutting and/or screening when defenses are sending proactive doubles or overloading to deter drives.

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

The offensive rating for the organized portion of the Lakers half court offense in preseason each of the years under JJ, as well as their Scheme Score metric grade:

2024-25: 105 (C)
2025-26: 111 (A)
2026-27: 95 (D-)

[Cranjis McBasketball @Tim_NBA]

Hiding things in preseason makes no sense to me. I'd rather have reps and build proficiency in various coverages, sets, tactics, etc.

The regular season is more about YOU than specific matchups.

If it's game 82 of the season and you're playing your locked in R1 opponent, sure.

[KB24 @scizzorz24]

@markjp @Tim_NBA Tbh, i never understood the whole idea of hiding strategy when everyone already knows how most teams want to play.

The goal should be having your strategy be so good, mixed in with counters, so it doesn’t matter what strategy someone uses against you.