Tim

Cancer researcher in profession, also interested in technology, investing, scifi, more.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@garyblack00 @SawyerMerritt @Tesla Vision far cheaper. If tesla gets it working they will scale alone for a while. When others come to vision only, tesla will be mass producing purposebuilt. Design+ramp purposebuilt takes many years for others.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@KishavanBhola Couldnt you hold puts on spacex and calls on sats to close the difference?

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@GrindeOptions Their shares are in lockup. It is unrealized

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@CuteDogeSnoot If you get paid in spacex shares valued by lockup price you are potentially getting a terrible deal even at 800. Selling spacex is literally not allowed for most shares. So who knows, that 800 in spacex shares may only sell 50 bucks if selling was allowed.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@thecyrusjanssen I'm not so sure this deal will hold. Maybe if a decent amount of ships get through, that could suffice to provide what is needed to get through a lasting closure of the strait without a severe recession.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@yunta_tsai Singularity at anthropic

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@ZacksJerryRig Heat can also radiate and a thermos has reflective layer to avoid that mechanism. They won't build a reflective layer bouncing back the radiation around the sattelites. In fact, they will build a radiator. You know the radiator in your house? It would still work in a vacuum.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@acheronix The ipo is marketed by all banks and brokers while the float is low. Breaking the ipo day peak should take 5-7y.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@Rajatsoni I sold at 120k and will buy at 40k

[Tib3rius @0xTib3rius]

My god, its incredible.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@squawksquare Liquidity is thin since end of day last week Thursday due to selling to raise cash to subscribe for spacex ipo, which is highly oversubscribed.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@JM_speakss Cycle: Maybe I'm crazy but from 65k to 120k is almost a double peak to peak. If the bottom also almost doubles it would be from 16k to 30k. I think FTX was particularly bad, and the recent peak was modest. So my expected bottom is 32-40k.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@cryptogoos The token on hyperliquid is lot less interesting when you can take the cash out and subscribe to get shares at lower price. Doesnt mean price wont go up on ipo day.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@BobLoukas The real bottom will have something breaking. Like when FTX went bankrupt. Something will happen. And peak to peak was barely a double, so trough to trough should be 16k to 32k. Now FTX was pretty rough so say 32-40k.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@big_duca Vulnerabilities are public, thats how you find it, in the public code

[Marius Schober @mariusschober]

thank me later regarding the SpaceX IPO

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@jwt0625 You try to find a lower rate on b300

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

In retrospect it is so obvious that they will be frontrun. Before they can buy back in it will run up and they will be used as exit liquidity. Expect full recovery in 1 to 2 trading days after subscription slows down. If oversubscription keeps running (lower % you get, more you want to subscribe, virtuous cycle) then this can drag out through next week.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@MechanizeWork Here is one "How many words are in this sentence?". Opus 4.8 told me "Five"

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

Your reasoning on the merger weighs many details. I keep coming back to the idea that price discovery on spacex only begins when all lockups (arguably except elon's) end. How can a market cap number mean anything if there is a temporary ban on selling a stock? Although special committees may be able to compensate it is too difficult to value these companies as any objective standard would price them much lower. Its all about track record and historical events.

[Tim @TimefortimXD]

@Vol888 If democrats win the next presidential election they are coming to kill tesla for bitter revenge through lawfare. A merged entity may be more resilient and avoid the worst. In any other way it seems unattractive until spacex trades with all shares unlocked and ipo hype fades.