I obviously could be super wrong here but I am still pretty damn confident despite this apathetic pa that we will get a violent break soon and a meaningful uptick in volatility.
Personally think there is a 8-10 chance that red box gets sodomised and raided below
I like these odds personally so im putting it out there for you to berate
#BTC
Stop trying to long every dip
We keep getting mini flush where positions get raided and then wait 24 hours and cunts are back flinging whatever margin they have left back into longs
The selling has been controlled and methodical
The capitulation candle coming will be one for the books
Are you ready anon?!
#BTC
What makes this range so trecherous is the deception that occured here
Run May high and pull a MSB on the weekly
Get everyone to deploy on confirmation of strength
People slowly realise its not what it appeared and aknowledge a pullback is likely
The market keeps dipping
And before you know it you are 20-40% underwater on spot bags
The market doesn't reclaim the range
It is too late
The rest is history
Not unusual to see a big bounce and has been hallmark of pa for a while. VOL. crush in motion
However, while this sell last week had characteristics associated with capitulation, I don't think the worst is behind us yet
Lockout rally Monday designed to entice and bait you to chase after the fact. Expecting this to completely unwind into the end of the week
Pressure remains down and I think this is destination over coming days/weeks
We are now pinched between the rolling 365 and the yearly vwap below
Going into next week wouldn't be shocked if there was a bit of initial bid into it below but I think $BTC will struggle to really establish any firm footing here
We have compressed for a while sitting on a thin volume shelf just below
mid 60s are next
$BTC
Markets move on positional flows
Whatever narrative you think is already priced in is usually just the market walking toward max pain and the path of least resistance
When we gapped up a few weeks back, it wasnโt Bessentโs signal to the bond market or the debasement thesis suddenly taking center stage. It was overcrowded shorts, ripe for the picking
Look at the tape now: bonds breaking, oil ripping, credit spreads slowly starting to widen, volatility still suppressed. Something will hit and trigger a messy flush of selling. Youโll call it a Black Swan. The market has already been telling you it wants to mean revert lower
Circular reasoning is a curse
This crab back and fourth is engineered to throw you out of sync and make you question your decision making
by design the market is here to make the majority of participants feel and look like idiots
if you stuck your neck out and actually took a short in this range, you know it hasn't been easy
for starters you are fighting a local uptrend where there is reflexive bid
and we don't have momentum to the downside (YET!)
If you survived and have your positions in place, you have done well
The best is yet to come
TIs Game Time Baby
#BTC
I am open to us sweeping the yearly open
As we say in markets need to be open to everything and any scenario
I am just not putting it as my base case scenario
I went through and cherry picked some consolidations on the 4 hour where multiple attempts at supply eventually led to a loss in momentum and a -10% drop
All these examples occured post ETF launch as price action and flow very much changed as a consequence
As you can see tops are a process and take a lot more patience than most are willing to admit
Also text book headfakes above key swing points don't always happen and for such I am willing to take a stop out if I am indeed correct on my prognosis of distribution here
$BTC