Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro

Founder @ | Quality of Earnings + valuation for SMB/LMM | CFA, ex-IRS valuation examiner | U.S. Army Combat Vet (OEF) | Camino Pilgrim

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

About me:
Founded QoEPro to provide independent quality of earnings for SMB/LMM. Completed over 250+ QoE’s & valuations over 10+ years.
U.S. Army Combat vet (OEF) | Camino Pilgrim | Texas McCombs EMBA Candidate, Class of ‘28
Love me some entrepreneurship.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

X is wild: You state a basic fact that is both non-controversial and easily verifiable, and yet inevitably someone will call you a dipshit.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

A flat annual working capital peg doesn't measure whether the seller delivered a normal business. It measures what month you closed in.
Pull the monthly balance sheets. Set the peg for the season you actually close in.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@RunningBear571 @HenryWilliams74 @SMB_Attorney @grok What percentage of current homes for sale in the U.S. are around 1,000 sqft?

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

I just searched Austin/NB/San Antonio region on Zillow. All the quaint 1950’s homes in decent school districts cost between $300k and $800k. The simple fact is most of these small homes were built closer to major city centers (before suburban sprawl) and sell for a premium nowadays. My basic argument is a factually true one: We need a greater supply of smaller homes in the places where people actually want to live.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

I mean, you can go on Zillow for yourself and browse the inventory. It’s a small portion of available housing. Since we don’t make houses this size anymore, the ones that do exist are either (1) almost unlivable in the very worst neighborhoods, or (2) in older neighborhoods in prime locations that are going for top dollar. Hardly affordable.

I looked around Austin/NB/San Antonio, and these 1,000 sqft “starter homes” in areas with decent school districts are easily going for $300k-$800k.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@SBALenderLyons If they shut down operations, the owners should be able to save roughly $800k a year.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

I think most Americans don’t know how lucky we have it. We successfully convinced other countries to give us their oil, raw materials, food, finished goods, you-name-it, etc., all in exchange for make believe electronic 1’s and 0’s that we literally pull out of thin air whenever we want. It’s bonkers how advantageous this is for us as consumers, and folks somehow want to give this arrangement up.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@ConnorAbene “Become easy to remember.” … Love it! Gonna make that my new mantra.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@PEoperator It makes sense tho … the data shows fewer people having sex, overall fewer relationships and less dating, declining lingerie purchases, etc … It all kind of suggested that people are unhappy with their bodies. 👀

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

Have come across 3 software engineers over the last two months that are inherently skeptical of using AI for even the simplest things like designing a website. I think that’s weird. Is that weird?

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@justinskycak Related: You don’t know who you really are, by yourself, without relationships. You might think you’re a patient person … until Thanksgiving with the in-laws.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@girdley @bedrockqoewill I’ve honestly been shocked by the amount of interest I’ve been getting from the sell-side for my QoE’s these past 6 months.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

@SMB_Attorney Good brokers are going to do some diligence beforehand and make sure their ask is in the ballpark of where the company actually is.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

https://t.co/wmuDXqGOcF

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

You can make a business look like it had a banner year without selling an extra dollar.
Cash-basis books reward collecting faster, not earning more. Not fraud, just the method.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

When I was a part of a PE-backed roll up operation, the deals that were needlessly dragged out and eventually died all had one thing in common: The seller invariably used their cousin’s best friend/high school varsity team buddy who happened to be a defense/family law/estate/anything-but-M&A attorney, lol.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

I still wrestle with ideas on the important stuff (like for my own content or anything serious), but I do find myself legitimately turning to AI too much for little stuff. It can be fun to learn about new things that way, but it does take the ‘wayfinding’ aspect out of your life. There’s a beauty and joy from stumbling through life without rigid plans. Was in Scotland last month, and I outsourced planning my daily excursions and meals to Claude way more than I’d like to admit. In reality, I should have put the phone down, and wandered around, exploring villages, and stumbling into pubs.

[Timothy Vance, CFA | QoEPro @TimothyVanceATX]

I think there’s a lot of awareness on both sides, but it’s more so what else can you do? ETA is hot right now and if you want in, you have to pay to play. I have a feeling that eventually supply and demand will work itself out, as more players find it cheaper to just start their own business from scratch rather than paying outrageous multiples, which will in turn bring on a greater supply with reduced demand, and multiples will come down.