🪲 $ROL is a name that rarely sells off too aggressively. It's in the midst of one of those right now. Push it down to $44 and it gets interesting from a long-term DGI perspective, according to the @MarketScholars#DividendStairstep chart (a function of Dividend Yield Theory).
15 days ago I flagged a single put sweep on $FUTU.
The 130P 06/05. Avg fill $2.28. 500 contracts. $114K premium. Stock was $151.
100% ask-side. No hedge. No spread leg. 14% OTM with 29 DTE.
That kind of print on a single OTM put is institutional positioning into a binary the market wasn't pricing.
Today the binary hit.
Pre-market $FUTU disclosed a Notice of Investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission. CSRC is targeting unauthorized cross-border brokerages serving mainland Chinese clients. $FUTU, Tiger, and Longbridge all named.
Stock opened down 28%. Bottomed near $89. The 130P went from 14% OTM to 45% ITM.
Same contract today traded 1,604 volume, $39.03 avg fill, $6.26M in premium.
$2.28 to $39.03. 17x.
Here's what the smart money saw that the tape didn't.
$FUTU was being priced as a clean fintech compounder. 9x P/E. $2.9B revenue. 49.7% net margin. 33% ROE. Goldman had it on the APAC Conviction List.
But $FUTU has been operating in a gray zone serving mainland Chinese clients for years. CSRC enforcement runs quiet for months before sudden notice. US-listed Chinese ADRs sit in permanent regulatory tail risk. And Q1 earnings drop next week on 5/28 — management knew the probe was coming.
The flow was the only signal you needed.
The 5/7 sweep was institutions pricing in a tail the analysts and the algos were ignoring.
This is the entire game.
The flow tells you the institution sees something. You don't always know what until it lands. Your job is to follow the print, not predict the headline.
Related names still carrying the same regulatory tail risk:
$TIGR $JD $BABA $BIDU $PDD $NIO $LI $XPEV $BILI $TME
Reading the tape sometimes > reading the news late.
— TakeProfits
$SATL on November 5th I laid out compelling DD on why I thought the stock would have a significant rerating higher. Since then it's gone a 550% rally putting it in the top performer in the space sector for the year
*NFA
QUCY is probably somewhere between 2 and 10c a share. Buying and holding this will result in the dumdums losing 90 to 100 pct of their investment. How do they keep finding people to buy these?
$QUCY raises 6 million of which a few mill is already gone, the Lazar group has convertible notes which can convert into over 470m shares, which means the suckers buying shares at 4$ are paying over 1.5b market cap for a company that might not be worth 10m, the real value of
TRENDING: $BTC just hit target one of four retracement target boxes.
• Price broke down from upward trend line & dots
• Confirmed RSI sell signal
• Pending sell signal
Bulls crossing fingers target four holds as support. 🤞
$SOX Semis UPD Thread:
1) Blow off top in progress - question is where does it end?
-I find calling tops before we see rollover pointless, we are simply looking for conditions for a top and RR for any future trades
-Our best matching cycle from Jan 1 analysis was 94-98 which has come to a spot where that cycle started putting a 2 month distribution top followed by 12 month correction (see updated price and close up view)
-Current 3.5Y cycle is already extremely long; I think topping and correction phases will be more compressed and bottom ~Q4.
5) $SOXX chart is now 3 SD above AVWAPs from 2008, 2022 and 2025 lows
-last move was on low volume with a potential blow off top with a daily volume spike followed by 3 days of rising prices on declining volume
-The gap up on Apr 23 created a potential distribution range
-Since Mar 31 bottom, there were 13 gap ups
-338 is balance area on 1h, 4h and 1d (200 hour VPOC) with a gap at 348
-In a bullish scenario you can still expect a retest of 365 area with 362 breakaway gap support being key to hold to avoid false breakout look. Acceptance back below that range would be red flag for bulls
-Weekly close has a hanging man candle. If followed by a red week it could signal local top: