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[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

With the 2026 MLB season coming up, it's time to go over the new features for this season!

There is a full Statcast suite, along with many new upgrades to the projection systems.

Here's every new addition and upgrade for this upcoming MLB season 🧵👇

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More MLB breakdowns, projections, and in-depth analysis coming all season long! 🫡

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Researching Thursday's MLB games?

I checked the entire slate and looked into each batter's pitch mix and Statcast metrics inside the Toad Sports app.

Here are a few names that might be worth keeping an eye on... 👀🧵⬇️

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

(LAD) Max Muncy: Ryne Nelson throws the 4SFB 60% of the time against left-handed batters and has already given up 6 home runs on it this season. Muncy has a 23% barrel rate, 96 EV, 0.31 ISO, 0.48 wOBA, and 5 home runs on the fastball against right-handed pitching. He also has a 33% barrel rate, 95 EV, 0.75 ISO, and 3 home runs against the cutter, which Nelson throws 16% of the time. Between those two pitches alone, that is 76% of Nelson's arsenal and 8 home runs allowed to left-handed hitters this season from that pitch combination. The play-by-play is relentless: a 108 EV lineout on 6/2 that should have left the yard, a 106 EV 431-foot homer on 5/31, a 105 EV 396-foot homer off Wheeler on 5/29, a 107 EV homer on 5/15, and 106-107 EV flyouts on 5/9 and 5/10. The outs in this stretch are hard-hit balls finding gloves. Nelson going to the fastball 60% of the time is exactly the scenario Muncy's entire season has been built around.

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Every player on this list is here because the model's projected probability is higher than what the odds are implying. That gap is the edge, and it's the only thing that gets a player on this sheet.

Ben Rice leads at 25.3% with +360 at FanDuel. That implies roughly a 21.7% probability. The model has him 3.5% above that. He's been one of the more consistent names near the top of these lists and today is no different.

Yordan Alvarez actually projects at 25.6% today, which is higher than Rice. But his odds are sitting at +290 on DraftKings, which implies roughly a 25.6% probability. The model and the book are essentially in the same place, so the edge is -0.1%. Nearly identical probability to the guy leading this list, completely off it because the price has him right where the model does. There's no gap to work with.

That's the whole point of the edge calculation. Two players projecting within a fraction of a percent of each other can be in completely different situations depending on what the book decided to charge for it. Raw probability doesn't tell you that. The edge does.

Both numbers are still moving. +290 on Alvarez ticking up to +310 or +320 flips that -0.1% and puts him in value territory. Checking back closer to first pitch matters, and so does checking early before the market adjusts to where the model already is.

The Toad Sports app handles all of this automatically so you're not converting odds by hand or watching multiple books for line movement. Projections go live early each morning and update throughout the day across thousands of players and markets. Team projections, a full Matchup Matrix built on Statcast data, and every stat category you'd want to dig into are all in there.

Also worth noting: this is just a sample. The full list of home run projections, edge calculations, and value spots across today's entire slate is inside the app. What's shown here doesn't scratch the surface of what's available.

Free trial is on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and you can view all of the projections for today, tomorrow, and the next day at no cost.

Toad Sports App: https://t.co/ZXC1kDbKAc

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

Let me know if you want these daily! ❤️

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

MLB Home Run Parlay (+26885)

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Every player on this list is here because the model's projected probability is higher than what the odds are implying. That gap is the edge, and it's the only thing that gets a player on this sheet.

Buxton leads at 26.2% with +325 at DraftKings. That implies roughly a 23.5% probability. The model has him 2.7% above that. Same name that has been showing up near the top of these lists, and the edge is still there today.

Juan Soto is a good example of how close the line can be. He is projected a 24.7% probability today, but you'll notice he is not on this list. That's because at +300 on FanDuel the implied probability is roughly 25%. The model has him just below that, so the edge sits at -0.3%. Less than half a percentage point separating him from being on this list. The odds just need to tick up slightly or the projection to move a fraction and that flips. It's worth keeping an eye on as first pitch gets closer.

That's exactly the kind of movement that makes checking back throughout the day matter. Odds shift, projections update as lineups confirm, and a spot that didn't have value at 9am can look completely different by noon. The reverse is true too. Players on this list right now aren't guaranteed to hold their edge all the way to game time.

The Toad Sports app tracks all of it automatically so you're not doing the math by hand or monitoring multiple books trying to catch a line move before it's gone. Projections go live early each morning and update throughout the day across thousands of players and markets. Team projections, a full matchup matrix built on Statcast data, and every stat category you'd want to research are all in there.

Also worth noting: this is just a sample. The full list of home run projections, edge calculations, and value spots across today's entire slate is inside the app. What's shown here doesn't scratch the surface of what's available.

Free trial is on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and you can view all of the projections for today, tomorrow, and the next day at no cost.

Toad Sports App: https://t.co/ZXC1kDbKAc

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Every player on this board has one thing in common: the model's projected probability is higher than what the odds are implying at their current price on DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.

The board covers eight different stat categories, which is worth paying attention to. Home runs tend to get the most attention on here, but they're also the hardest to hit. A player like Junior Caminero showing 54.6% on 2+ total bases at +100 is a completely different conversation than a 23% home run projection.

None of what's shown here is the highest probabilities for the day. These are just a sample of spots where the model currently sees value, not the full picture of what's available today. The complete set of projections across every category, every player, and every market are inside the Toad Sports app - updating throughout the day based upon weather, lineups, pitching changes, and other factors that allow users to keep up and find the value without having stagnant lines.

You can get a FREE TRIAL on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and today's full board is waiting for you at no cost.

Toad Sports App: https://t.co/ZXC1kDbKAc

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

MLB Player Projections:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Every player on this list is here because the model's projected probability is higher than what the odds are implying. That gap is the edge, and it's the only thing that gets a player on this sheet.

Trout leads at 23.9% with +425 at MGM. That implies roughly a 19.0% probability. The model has him nearly 5% above that, which is one of the cleaner edges on the slate today. The number at the top of the list isn't always the best spot. The gap between the projection and the price is.

Matt Olson is a good example of that working the other way. He comes in at 22.3%, which would put him right in the mix with the names on this list. But at +320 the implied probability is roughly 23.8%. The model has him 1.5% below what the book is pricing, so the edge sits at -1.5% and he isn't here. The probability doesn't look much different from some of the players that made the list. The odds are just too short for where the model has him right now.
That number moves. +320 shifting to +340 or +350 by first pitch changes the math entirely.

Same goes for the projections themselves updating as lineup information comes in. Neither the odds nor the probabilities on this list are fixed between now and game time, which is worth keeping in mind whether you're checking in early or closer to first pitch.

The Toad Sports app tracks all of this in one place so you're not manually converting odds or refreshing multiple tabs trying to catch movement before it disappears. Projections go live early each morning and update throughout the day. Thousands of projections across the full slate, team projections, and a Matchup Matrix built on Statcast data for digging into individual batter vs. pitcher matchups. Whatever the research process looks like, there's something in there that fits it.

Also worth noting: this is just a sample of what's available - not the highest probabilities for today. The full list of home run projections, edge calculations, and value spots across today's entire slate is inside the app. What's shown here doesn't scratch the surface of what's available.

Free trial is on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and you can view all of the projections for today, tomorrow, and the next day at no cost.

Toad Sports App: https://t.co/ZXC1kDbKAc

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

@MLBHR HE FINALLY DID IT! WE'RE SO BACK!

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Full breakdown of some of today's projections was posted earlier. For all of today's highest probabilities, check out the Toad Sports app.

https://t.co/Zqd6gvb9Ty

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

These are some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Saturday's Home Run Parlay (+9496)

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Every player on this list is here for the same reason: the model's projected probability is higher than what the odds are implying. That gap is the edge, and it's the only thing that gets a player on this sheet.

Buxton leads today at 26.0%. +330 at FanDuel implies roughly a 23.3% probability. The model has him 2.7% higher than that, so the edge is +2.7%. That's the number that matters. Not the probability on its own, not the odds on their own. The relationship between the two.

Aaron Judge is a good illustration of how this works in the other direction. He projects at 26.0% today, which is essentially identical to Buxton's probability. But his odds are sitting at +220 on DraftKings, which implies roughly a 31.2% probability. The book has him priced as significantly more likely to go deep than the model does. That puts the edge at -5.2%, one of the larger negative edges on today's slate.

Same probability as the guy at the top of the list, completely different value situation depending on what the market is doing with it.
Both of those things can shift before first pitch. Judge at +220 moving to +260 closes that gap considerably. A projection update that bumps his probability above the implied number flips it entirely. Odds and probabilities are both moving targets throughout the day, which is why checking back closer to game time matters just as much as checking in early before the market adjusts.

The process isn't about finding the player most likely to hit a home run. It's about finding the spots where the model sees more than the price is giving you credit for. Over a large enough sample that's where the math starts working in your favor.

The Toad Sports app handles all of this automatically so you're not converting odds to implied probability by hand or cross-referencing multiple books to find the best number. Every projection includes the probability, the line, and the edge in one place.

Thousands of projections across each day's slate, team projections, and a full Matchup Matrix built on Statcast data for digging into individual batter vs. pitcher matchups. Whatever part of the process you care about, there's something in there for it.

Free trial is available on both the Apple and Android app stores. Download the app, take 30 seconds to set up your account, and you can view all of the projections for today, tomorrow, and the next day at no cost.

Toad Sports App: https://t.co/ZXC1kDbKAc

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

These are some of today's MLB home run projections from the Toad Sports app:

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Enjoy this thread?

🩵 Drop A Like
📲 Try The @ToadSports App (FREE)

More MLB writeups, projections, and in-depth analysis coming all season long! 🫡

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

Researching Saturday's MLB matchups? 👀

I just looked at the entire slate of games and checked every single player's matchup matrix on the Toad Sports app.

Here are a few names that might be worth keeping an eye on... 🧵⬇️

[Toad Sports @ToadSports]

(LAA) Mike Trout: Drew Rasmussen throws the sinker 38% of the time against right-handed batters, but his second most common pitch is the cutter at 33%, and that is where Mike Trout does his most serious damage. Against right-handed pitching, Trout has an 18.2% barrel rate, 0.60 ISO, 0.66 wOBA, and 3 home runs on the cutter this season. He also has a 25% barrel rate and 2 home runs on the 4S-FB, which Rasmussen throws 19% of the time. The recent form backs it up: a 108.9 EV home run off a cutter from Eovaldi on 5/23, a 110.5 EV sinker on 5/20, and 100.9 EV contact on 5/22. He went deep twice in April on cutters (Fedde on 4/29, Lugo on 4/26), and with Rasmussen making the cutter his primary seconday pitch against right-handed batters, Trout is going to see it repeatedly in this game.