Curious about what's to come. There is going to be too little supply for the market to balance for quite some time. However, a dump of new homes and more existing ones might suddenly cool an otherwise heated up market. What do you think?
10 Biases that distort your Decision-Making:
1. Self-Serving Bias - Our failures are situational, but our successes are our responsibility.
2. Curse of knowledge - Once we know something, we assume everyone else knows it, too.
3. Dunning-Kruger Effect - The less you know, the more confident you are. The more you know, the less confident you are.
4. Belief Bias - We judge an argument's strength not by how strongly it supports the conclusion but by how plausible the conclusion is in our own minds.
5. Escalation of Commitment - We invest more in things that have cost us something rather than altering our investments, even if we face negative outcomes.
6. Gambler's Fallacy - We think future possibilities are affected by past events.
7. Zero-Risk Bias - We tend to reduce small risks to zero, even if we can reduce more risk with another option.
8. Outgroup Homogeneity Bias - We perceive out-group members as homogenous and our own in-groups as more diverse.
9. Clustering Illusion - We find patterns and clusters in random data.
10. Blind Spot Bias - We overlook biases in our own decision-making and see them more in others.
Which of these is troubling you the most?😅
The Curse of Knowledge is up there for me.
It doesn’t make sense to continue wanting something if you’re not willing to do what it takes to get it.
If you don’t want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process, is to guarantee disappointment.
Since peaking in June 2022, U.S. home prices have fallen 2.4%. That puts us just below April 2022 levels
IF U.S. home prices fall 10% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Oct. 2021 levels
IF U.S. home prices fall 20% peak-to-trough, it'd take prices back to Feb. 2021 levels
Good news for remodeling:
24 million homes will be "ripe" for major renovations and improvement projects by 2027.
The "Prime Remodel" years is when it undergoes a series of major improvement projects.
Before 2021, this cohort of homes had never topped 21 million.
While total inventory fell for the 3rd straight month, now at 1.22 million, monthly supply rose to 3.3 months as the days on the market grew from 18 to 21 days.
Existing home sales continue to tank, falling in October by -5.9% vs. -6.6% est. & -0.5% prior … median home price +6.6% y/y to $379,100; monthly supply rose to 3.3 vs. 3.1 prior … annualized level of sales now flirting with COVID low
Does this support the life i am wanting to live?
👆👆 this question is really smart to ask before jumping into a new project or making any big decisions.
I'm getting this vibe after rates dropped; remember, we saw buyers come in around 5%. Think stabilization first; the bleeding needs to stop, and you will see this in the forward-looking data first. HMI and purchase apps it's a long process
Are there things you’ve given up on? You think it’s too late, too far gone, never going to work out. God is saying, “It’s still going to happen.” The dreams He’s placed in your heart, the desires He’s put in you, they’re already on the schedule. Now rise up.
Fed Chair Powell says...
1. The U.S. housing market was "overheated" during the pandemic.
2. We need to get housing supply and demand back into "balance."
3. We don't have the "poor" mortgage credit issues that we saw in the last cycle.
Sellers, don't be afraid to reduce the price if needed. And be careful to not get emotionally stuck on the original list price. Remember, you are NOT giving up value if value wasn’t ever there in the first place.
Building a company with the right compensation model as well as opportunities for those involved influence culture more than focusing on culture. When people ask about your culture I think what they are really asking about is opportunity to grow and thrive.