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[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Day 445 of the $ETH bear market, and it's the shallowest of the three big ones so far.

I lined up the three big ETH bear markets by days since each all-time high. Here's where each one stood on day 445:

2018 bear: −88% ($161)
2022 bear: −67% ($1,598)
Now: −57% (about $2,090)

2018 cycle
Top: $1,386 on Jan 13, 2018
Bottom: $83, down 94%, 335 days later
New high: day 1,107

2022 cycle
Top: $4,812 on Nov 8, 2021
Bottom: $994, down 79%, 222 days later
New high: day 1,383

This cycle
Top: $4,831 on Aug 22, 2025
Lowest so far: $1,565, down 68%, on June 25, 2026 (day 307)
Today: up 34% from that low

What I take from it:

1. The damage is real but smaller. A 68% drop hurts. It's still the mildest of the three big bears.

2. Time is the real price of admission. The last two took 3 to nearly 4 years to reclaim the top. If this one rhymes, a new high lands somewhere around Sept 2028 to June 2029. That's a pattern, not a promise.

3. Know the limits. Two past cycles is a tiny sample, and a shallower bear doesn't prove the bottom is in. A lower low is still possible, which is exactly why my buy levels sit at $1,900, $1,800 and $1,700.

The long-term case hasn't changed for me. The calendar is what tests your conviction.

Save this for the next time someone tells you ETH is finished.

Where do you think this one ends: a faster recovery because it's shallower, or a longer grind? Tell me below.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl @0xSweep The bear market isn’t over yet

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Old belief: Ethereum goes post-quantum around 2028, and faster slots arrive in the next fork (Hegotá).

New proposal from @ethlabs_org today: make Ethereum post-quantum AND "post-AI" in 2027. Quick slots get pulled from Hegotá to make room.

Why they say now:
• Quantum deadlines keep moving up (they cite the US gov going 2035 → 2030, Google by 2029)
• AI is finding software bugs at scale
• Pivoting now is cheaper than mid-fork

Glamsterdam still ships as planned. This is input to core devs, not a decision yet.

Speed traded for security. For a store of value, that's the right trade.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@p3te_eth The call has played out quite well! Thanks for digging that back up 🔮

Been expecting this for months. Hopefully I don’t mess it up by expecting a drop below $2,000 within the next month to the low.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl Been here before 😅 2022, 2018 we always come back. Well some of us…

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

Every $ETH / $BTC cycle top has been lower than the last: 0.150 (2017), 0.088 (2021), 0.042 (2025).

Yesterday it closed at 0.0278.

Repeat the last two drops (−41%, −52%) and the next top lands at 0.020–0.025, below where it trades now.

What breaks the pattern this time: real ETH demand, or just a weaker Bitcoin?

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl We go lower and then just like always we bounce back after the bear market ends in November/December.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl Could very well be I’m looking for stronger ETH going forward hopefully

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

The SpaceX IPO low window, in today's dates and prices, is Nov 13–Dec 2, around $1,696–$1,700 for $ETH.

Around SpaceX's June 12 listing, ETH made two almost identical lows: $1,568.87 six days before the listing and $1,565.19 thirteen days after. Only $3.68 apart.

Lined up on Anthropic's reported Nov 19 first-trade plan, those days land on Nov 13 and Dec 2. The same drops from this window's start ($2,446.62 on Oct 20) are about $1,700 and $1,696.

ETH closed at $2,050.58 on Nov 10.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Perhaps the reason Bitcoin is falling (if you need one) is due to the upcoming Anthropic IPO.

You can see Bitcoin's performance going into the SpaceX IPO (blue line).

Investors will often try to free up capital for major IPOs.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@IamSigma007 I see opportunity!

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Bulltech702 Your running out of room Spider-Man 😅

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

$ETH holding onto $2,000 support:

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Alaouicapital Scale check, per Lookonchain: this wallet (0x5CBC) has sold 4,785 ETH since Oct 26. That's 2,785, then the two-week pause, then 1,000 + 1,000.

Spot ETH ETFs had 127,828 ETH of net outflows over 7 days on Lookonchain's tracker. This wallet's 2,000 is about 1.6% of that.

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Mike_AI_BTC_ETH The doctors checking him out after he falls:

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Mrcryptoo1 I agree with that it is holding up better so far

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

One company now owns almost 1 of every 20 $ETH.

Bitmine's Nov 9 update:
• 6,070,092 ETH, 4.97% of the 122.2M supply
• 9,587 bought last week, and a buy every week since June 30, 2025
• 5,227,037 staked (86%) at a 2.65% trailing yield

Their goal is 5%. That's 39,908 ETH away, about 4 weeks at last week's pace.

A buyer that never skips a week is real support in a bear market. A bid with a finish line is also a bid that can stop.

What happens to the weekly buying after 5%?

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@beka_web3 Feels pretty accurate

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@Johnattan7791 Testing the grip strength

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@crypto_amaru No shorts just warning of the most likely outcome nothing against Eth

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@milmillinetwork Usually what I say right before it breaks down

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@valerielwl 😅 he will survive the fall

[Digital Oil @TokenizedDollar]

@jedifractal That’s about how it’s going 😂