Tokyo Trader

tradeify code: ATARI
Equity Derivatives Trader
東京・六本木ヒルズの元銀行トレーダー

[verniman @verniman]

#ES_F AM session (DayAfterTrend) #SP500 #SPX https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Statistically #NASDAQ #VIX
Historical frequency (Nasdaq / NQ behavior)
Using typical thresholds:
+8–10% in ≤10 trading days
+12–15% in ≤15–20 trading days
Observed frequency:
Move TypeFrequency
+8–10% in 10 days~3–6 times per year
+12–15% in ~3 weeks~1–3 times per year
V-shaped rallies (like this)~2–4 times per year

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Probabilities (Short-Term: next 10–30 minutes)
🔻 Pullback Probability: 65–75%

Why:

Price is extended from value area
Lack of fresh volume above current highs
Mean reversion tendency toward 26125–26150 HVN
Typical auction behavior: price rotates back to value after extension

Expected behavior:

Initial rejection or stall at highs
Rotation down into nearest high-volume node
Possible consolidation before next move
🔺 Continuation Probability: 25–35%

Why lower:

Continuation requires new aggressive buyers
Current structure shows diminishing momentum near highs
No clear breakout + acceptance above current range yet

Continuation scenario requires:

Holding above ~26190–26200
Increasing volume at highs
Tight consolidation (bull flag behavior)

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

NQ Quick Levels & Probabilities
Resistance
26,020–26,080
26,200 (target)
Support
25,900 (key)
25,750 (POC)
25,600
Scenarios
🟢 Breakout up: 60% → 26,200
🟡 Range: 25% → 25,900–26,050
🔴 Pullback: 15% → 25,750
Key trigger
Above 26k = bullish
Below 25,900 = pullback starts
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[IGSquawk @IGSquawk]

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

#NASDAQ Statistical Levels
🔴 Upper
26,100 — 3σ extreme
25,900 — 2σ breakout
25,700 — +1σ resistance
⚖️ Mean
25,500 — VPOC / Mean
🟢 Lower
25,300 — −1σ support
25,100 — −2σ strong support
24,900 — −3σ panic

#NQ_F #VIX

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Risk vs Reward #NASDAQ #today
Trade Win Rate Reward Verdict
Buy here~45%Small⚠️ Risky
Short highs~40%Large✅ Better setup
Wait for pullback—Best⭐ Safest

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

@Jacobtradesz

[verniman @verniman]

#ES_F New record high is coming #SP500 #SPX https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Conditional Probabilities (Quant Estimate)
OutcomeProbabilityExplanation
Continuation higher (break highs)0.58 – 0.64Trend persistence + value migration
Range rotation / shallow pullback0.23 – 0.29Typical post-trend consolidation
Full bearish reversal0.09 – 0.14Requires structure failure
Sharp liquidation (>1% drop)0.03 – 0.05Rare without macro catalyst

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Probabilities from this structure
1️⃣ Continuation higher

Probability: ~55–65%

Conditions:

Price holds above 25880–25900
Break above 25970–26000

Reason:

Trend days often lead to next-day continuation or overnight grind higher.
2️⃣ Pullback but trend intact

Probability: ~25–30%

Typical target zones:

25880–25900
25780–25800

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

ScenarioProbability #NASDAQ
Trend continuation55%
Range consolidation30%
Bearish reversal15%

Bias: Bullish unless 25780 breaks.

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[verniman @verniman]

#ES_F Trading Bullish Imbalance https://t.co/0gYuQqMhhS #SPX #SPY

[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Quant Bias NQ
ScenarioProbability
Bull continuation60%
Range around mean28%
Sharp selloff12%
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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Best Statistical Levels for NASDAQ Today

26,100  3σ extreme
25,900  2σ breakout
25,700  +1σ resistance
25,500  MEAN / VPOC
25,300  −1σ support
25,100  −2σ strong support
24,900  −3σ panic

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Institutional Trading Zones

ZoneInterpretation
25,450–25,550Statistical equilibrium
25,600–25,700breakout trigger
25,870extreme upside target (2σ)
25,300strong support

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

Institutional Trading Zones

ZoneInterpretation
25,450–25,550Statistical equilibrium
25,600–25,700breakout trigger
25,870extreme upside target (2σ)
25,300strong support

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[Tokyo Trader @Tokyo97AN]

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Best statistical levels for NASDAQ:

25,700 3σ extreme
25,500 2σ breakout

25,300 +1σ resistance

25,100 MEAN / VPOC

24,900 -1σ support
24,700 -2σ strong support
24,500 -3σ panic
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