Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵

The Tokyo Decoder analyzes BoJ policy and the OIS curve. We look past the headline noise to find the 'will' of the Japanese policymakers. 石 versus 意志

[Bank of Japan @Bank_of_Japan_e]

Governor UEDA made a speech entitled "Economic Activity and Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan" at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting in Tokyo on June 3, 2026.
https://t.co/xZbWUFKqWe

[Bloomberg @business]

Mitsubishi UFJ said a larger or out-of-cycle Bank of Japan rate hike can’t be ruled out, warning that an expected increase this month may not be enough to prevent further declines in the yen and Japanese government bonds https://t.co/I3S0vs1kkJ

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

【日本市況】円が対ドル160円近辺、米・イラン再衝突－株式が下落 https://t.co/KDS5A0tLaQ

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

BoJ expected to raise interest rates at the June meeting - Sources

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

robust corporate profits and the ~5% spring wage negotiations provide the domestic economy with a sufficient buffer to absorb tighter financial condition. With pinned at an uncomfortable 160 level, the BOJ is under acute political pressure to curb imported inflation risks.

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

Governor Kazuo Ueda has officially put a June rate hike on the table. By explicitly stating the BOJ is prepared to discuss the "pros and cons" of a hike at the upcoming June 15-16 Monetary Policy Meeting, Ueda is actively managing bond market expectations

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

to prevent the Bank from appearing behind the curve. We think that this rhetoric serves as a strong trial balloon for a 25bp hike to 1.00%.

The macro backdrop supports this maneuver. Despite external volatility stemming from the Middle East, Ueda correctly identifies that

[Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia]

BOJ will 'discuss' rate hike despite uncertainties, says Gov. Ueda https://t.co/pX4PXJsbDt

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

Find our analysis on Substack here:
https://t.co/dOBt57aTTn

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

Telegraphing the June Rate Hike
In his high-stakes address at the Kisaragi-kai meeting in Tokyo today, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provided an overview of how recent geopolitical supply shocks are feeding into the central bank’s reaction function, sending clear signals to markets.

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

Outsized rally in 10yr #JGB yesterday. No major catalyst, so assuming it was flow driven. Could fade in the near future, underpinned by #BOJ hiking cycle, rising term premium, fiscal issuance.

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

日銀は6月利上げ見送りの可能性、インフレ圧力高まらず－白井元委員 https://t.co/R10ke7mbXM

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

along with Masu and Koeda—all appear inclined toward a near-term hike. Consequently, investors are highly alert to the possibility that the speech could serve as an effective pre-commitment to a rate increase.

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming speech on June 3 is viewed as the BOJ's final opportunity to proactively communicate its policy stance ahead of the June Monetary Policy Meeting. Market attention is exceptionally high because five board members—the three previous April dissenters

[Bloomberg @business]

Japan’s financial markets have entered a new phase in which rising bond yields no longer signal just the healthy normalization of monetary policy, but also the risk that inflation may increase too much https://t.co/8l9rnJpsLa

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

政府・日銀の為替介入11兆円超、月次で過去最大－27日までの1カ月間 https://t.co/JxqbJiw8Bt

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

Revisiting the „Appropriate” Policy https://t.co/Sqnwa8YIWN

[Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia]

Rising bond yields put pressure on BOJ's taper plan https://t.co/Ny6gWA867l

[Ishi's Tokyo Decoder 🇯🇵 @TokyoDecoder]

This is what we also write about in our latest Substack article "The 'Appropriate' Policy".
https://t.co/uNON3hcdbb

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

みずほFG社長、日銀利上げ幅0.5%なら「債券市場に好ましい」 https://t.co/wZd1Aub1z4

[ブルームバーグニュース @BloombergJapan]

植田日銀総裁、原油価格上昇の「ショックは広範囲かつ持続的」 https://t.co/9wHC1IUseq