My #FPL Journal 2023/24 Season.
Best start ever in my few years of playing.
Gameweek 1:
Template Rating: Moderately Differential
📈 Total Points: 91
🌍 OR: 45,060
As LiveFPL is nominated for the @The_FCAs best organization in fantasy football, I would appreciate your votes, only if you think it's deserved 🙏❤️
https://t.co/0WE0aqBVvN
I might finally make it to the ceremony this time (traveling across oceans) so let's do this 🫡
Introducing xDC (Expected DEFCON) - Chance of a defender to get to 10 CBIT in #FPL - RT appreciated
All data from @FFScout
I will post a few plots with a brief description.
1. DC (DEFCON) points per 90 from 24-25 season vs Expected DEFCON points (2*xDC) per 90
This chart shows that the method works as xDC seems to predict the actual DC points reasonably well. xDC is calculated from clearances, blocks, interceptions, and tackles data.
xDC is useful since we can now combine this with xG, xA, and xCS (Expected clean sheet) to find the chance of a defender to get us FPL points
FPL: The art of picking the right Liverpool defender 🧵
This might change your perspective on DEFs
• Virgil van Dijk: He is the best in the world at one thing. And it helps in FPL
• Jeremie Frimpong and the risks involved
• Can Milos Kerkez become a unicorn?
Let’s do this:
So, GW10 then… how does this all fall in to place specifically!? I’ll try and keep this short and sweet and I’ll add a RAG rating to highlight “perfect zonal match ups” (i.e. attacking prowess vs defensive weakness):
⚔️ Newcastle vs Arsenal 🔫
We know Arsenal will attack down their right but that is also the side of the pitch Newcastle concede the least chances from. Stalemate maybe? I doubt it. Saka is too good at what he does!
Similarly for Newcastle, they’ll go down their left but Arsenal aren’t really weak anywhere, as we all know.
🟠 Saka
🔴 Gordon/Barnes
🍒 Bournemouth vs Man City 👕
No real zonal weakness to exploit. Bournemouth fairly similar in terms of goals conceded whilst Man City attack down their left. As for Bournemouth, they seem to attack down the left but Man City don’t tend to concede from there.
🟠 Foden/Savio/Gvardiol/Nunes
🔴 Kerkez/Tavernier/Kluivert
🚜 Ipswich vs Leicester 🦊
Ipswich have conceded mostly down their left which could give Buonanotte a good shot but Leicester usually attack down their own left with Mavididi. Leicester concede more down their left which could give Burns ample opportunity for returns.
🟠 Buonanotte/Mavididi
🟠 Burns
🐦🔥 Liverpool vs Brighton 🐦
Brighton concede chances mostly down their left and Liverpool create mostly down their right… helloooooo Salah! Brighton on the other hand create mostly down their left which is Liverpool’s weakest side too.
🟢 Salah
🟢 Mitoma
🌳 Nottingham Forest vs West Ham ⚒️
Forest create mostly down their left and centre and West Ham concede the majority of chances down their right and centre. Bodes well for Hudson Odoi and Wood! West Ham attack mostly down their right but that is the side where Forest concede the least chances.
🟢 Wood/Hudson Odoi
🟠 Bowen
🪽 Southampton vs Everton 🍬
Everton concede their most chances on their right but that is where Southampton attack the least. Everton attack mostly down their right and Southampton concede a lot down their left which means it could work out well for whoever is playing on Everton’s right.
🟢 Harrison
🐺 Wolves vs Crystal Palace 🦅
Wolves create mostly on their wings and Palace concede most from their right. Cunha could go well here! Wolves concede mostly on their right which looks good for Eze too.
🟢 Cunha/Aït-Nouri (depending on formation)
🟢 Eze
🐓 Tottenham vs Aston Villa 🦁
Tottenham attack mostly down the right but that is where Villa is strongest. Villa attack mostly down their left which is Spurs’ weakness.
🟢 Digne/Rogers
👹 Man United vs Chelsea 🔵
Chelsea don’t really have a weak point but they are not defensively sound either. If Man United are going to get anything it’ll be from their wings. Man United concede most from their left and Chelsea could pose a threat there.
🟠 Madueke
🟠 Rashford/Garnacho
🏡 Fulham vs Brentford 🐝
Brentford concede a lot of chances, across the board, but mostly from their left. Adama could pose a big threat. Fulham concede most from their left which is perfect for Mbeumo on Brentford’s right.
🟢 Mbeumo
🟢 Adama
I hope this has helped highlight where teams are doing well or doing badly. I’ll continue to break this down as the weeks go by to see if anything has changed… I may do a weekly thread 🧵 of players to target if this gets a good reception!
Give this a like and a repost if it was a good read ❤️
#NEWARS #BOUMCI #IPSLEI #LIVBHA #NFOWHU #SOUEVE #WOLCRY #TOTAVL #MUNCHE #FULBRE
⛓️💥 Team Breakdown ⛓️💥
Chances created & conceded
We’re practically a quarter of the way through the season so, where do teams create the majority of their chances? On the left? On the right maybe? How about through the middle? With that said, which players are most likely to succeed?
All of that, with a GW10 twist towards the end… A DEEP dive!
@FFScout has been heavily utilised for the data!
A thread 🧵
#FPL #FPLCommunity
“I am not working with 15 players. I am working with 14 players”.
“The other 1 player is training apart. I don't see him. It's not a mess like it looks from outside. Absolutely not”.
“He can even have 20 price drops, it’s not my point. I don’t care”.
- a Barco owner