Le plus gros vendeur de ta séance n'est presque jamais un vendeur directionnel, c'est généralement un market maker qui se couvre.
Thread sur ce flux mécanique quotidien et sur comment je l'interprète durant mes sessions sur $SPX via @VolSignals 🧵👇
$SPX $ES_F $NQ_F Premarket
· Broad bid overnight with dow and tech leading : $SPY at +0,36%, $QQQ at +1,07%, $IWM at +0,46% and $DIA at +1,24%
· Futures with $ES at +0,35%, $NQ at +1,11%, $RTY at +0,46%, $YM at +1,21%, $GC at +1,18% and $CL at -3,14%
· Vol keeps bleeding with $VIX at 15,64 (-1,39%), $VXN at 24,77 (-4,73%), $VVIX at 90,81 (-0,91%), long-vol products offered with $UVXY at -2,09%, $VIXY at -1,57%, $VXX at -1,19% and $SVIX at +1,23%
· Macro day : Trade Balance already out as expected, JOLTS Job Openings at 16h00 expected at 7,45M against 7,59M, Factory Orders at 16h00 and Trump speaks at 22h30
$SPX Map
· Spot at 7625 with clear balance at 7600 already tested!
· Upside : 7635 is our first test if we clearing it opens the 7650/7665 zone where biggest long cluster sits then 7700 as extension
· Downside : 7620 is our first test if we losing it opens 7600 then 7595/7575 zone with 7560 behind
· Charm is supportive again with long range of decaying calls above us, 7625 is flip level : hold above it and it drags us up into those calls, lose it and support gives way to suppressive charm late in session
· Gamma is very positive at roughly $13,1B per percent : speed that carried last sessions is gone, moves get absorbed instead of extended
· 0DTE Straddle at $25,9 against $31,4 yesterday, the fourth session lower in a row : we just rallied into a pocket of long gamma that was already sitting in this range
Interpretations are mine | Datas from @VolSignals
$SPX $ES_F $NQ_F Premarket
· Slightly offered overnight into FOMC day with $SPY at -0,05%, $QQQ at -0,06%, $IWM at -0,18% and $DIA at -0,66%
· Futures with $ES at -0,08% sitting at 7461, $NQ at -0,25%, $RTY at -0,19%, $YM at -0,58%, $GC at -0,31% and $CL at +6,47%
· Vol firm with $VIX at 18,38 (+0,93%), $VXN at 28,61, $VVIX at 98,51 (-2,38%), long-vol products bid with $UVXY at +1,62%, $VXX at +1,59%, $VIXY at +0,71% and $SVIX at -1,06%
· Macro day : EIA Crude at 16h30, FOMC decision at 20h00 then Warsh press conference at 20h30, Trump speaks at 21h00, $META and $MSFT earnings at 22h10
$SPX Map
· Spot at 7429 with balance at 7430 but gamma is flat so nothing pins us there : it is a marker not a clear magnet, levels can be very unstable today!
· Upside : 7440 is our first test and second in 7475, clearing it opens the 7485/7500 zone with 7525 behind
· Downside : 7395 is our first test and second in 7370, if we losing it opens the 7360/7345 zone where dealer puts sit
· Gamma is slightly negative/flat overall but both sides behave differently : short under us so a sell picks up speed, long above us so a rally slows down as it goes
· Vanna is my read today : book is short into the meeting, a vol drop after the release pushes the move instead of stopping it and charm only wakes up in the last hour
· 0DTE Straddle at $53,60 against $38,70 yesterday and Fed days usually pay out the day after
Interpretations are mine | Datas from @VolSignals
$SPX
Journée beaucoup plus propre qu'hier avec nos deux bornes qui ont fait leur boulot
Open sur un flush direct dans notre zone downside aussitôt défendu, flip de la balance derrière et impulsion haussière jusqu'à notre borne haute avec de belles réactions sur nos tests, classique ping pong.
Belle poussée verticale avec un vrai momentum acheteur correspondant plus à du flux qu'au positionnement. Cela nous ramène au dessus de 7430 en environnement gamma positif et charm supportif où les MM rachètent les baisses au lieu de les suivre
Straddle 0DTE de $38,70 à l'open pour 21 points de move : tout est déjà tourné vers Warsh et le FOMC, à demain!
N’hésitez pas à vous abonner pour suivre mon aventure jusqu’à devenir pilote professionnel 🏎️🔥
💬 Posez toutes vos questions, j’y répondrai avec plaisir !
Le meilleur reste à venir… 🙌