Tomáš Kopečný

Analyst/Economist, micro investor,statistics of rare events and exponacial processes, poet.
Everything here is my personal opinion.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@NotA_Bull 7%-8% GDP gov deficit is not enough. Let's buy some stocks!

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@ApacheUSCLV @SilverDegen All rumours are fake until they are officially denied.
N.N.Taleb

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@petr_zabza Dneska reklama XTB na opce. "Nerozumíte opcím, nevadí stáhněte si náš E-Book".

Jako nevím no, vnucovat retailu opce, to je skoro jako prodávat drogy před školou..

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@MotejlekSkocdop Proto je potřeba znárodnit ČEZ co nejdřív. Jaderky jsou "zlata vejce", je potřeba je zpenezit než někomu dojde co znamená LNG glut, baterky a zdražujici uran.
Uran jsou drobné ale 3-5miliard ročně to CEZu v pohodě sebere.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

Jednoduché recept od autových komonistů (dříve pravice)

Jízdenka na MHD za 150 korun
Parkování na celý den za 3 koruny

[Karl von Bahnhof @KvBahnhof]

Zdražení pražské MHD 5x, výrazně posílí město krátkých vzdáleností, městskou cyklistiku a zdraví obyvatel. Zároveň se sníží celková váha obyvatelstva a to odlehčí chodníkům

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@gordon_gekko_29 Jestli to dobře chápu tak je to takový "CSG pro všechny", které může sundat "módu indexování" na minimálně dekádu se všemi následky . Je tak?

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@jarsura No jo. To ale ta těch 800 na akcii tu nevyrobni část musí někdo koupit.
Vy byste koupil nebo souhlasil přesunem svého podílu do nevýrobni části oceněné na 400 miliard?

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

If the price stay low. Let's say 70-90 for like 2 years it would just drain the the coffers and explode like a Supernova.
At least that is my notion when I look at the hyperscalers and the datacenter demand We need to trigger recycling and cut jewelerly demand to have enough for electronics and solar

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@TradingDiary2 As I understand it. Iran destroyed a huge factory in Saudi Arabia.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@michalsnobr @SkupinaCEZ Težebni nálklady jsou cca 15000 dolarů za tunu.
Na světě nekonečno lithia , který umíme těžit pod 10 000.
DLE lithium je často i píď 5000.
V tomhle prostředí je docela jistě, jaká je budoucnost projektu, který má capex pres 30 miliard.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

Není to jedna variable. Felipe Massa byl na argentinský poměry OKa a rozjel spoustu věcí viz rozvoj Vaca Muerta a lithiových nalezišť.

S příchodem Mileie taky koliduje velká úroda, která následovala po největším duchu za 80 let.

Píšu to, protože sem tam investoval v roce 2021/2 a Úroda a těžba ropy byly hlavní indikátor kterej sem sledoval. Až déšť přinesl dolary..

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@janschneider_cz @zoo_praha Dole nebo nahoře u slonů?

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

I don't believe in great Resets Still since Biden weaponized dollar and Trump did it on steroids.
USD os not a reasonable store of value for half of the world.
And with the debt piling up it is not safe for the Westerners either.

8000-10 000by 2030 seems plausible to me and I invest accordingly

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

That is state flat pension
+ You have occupation/private pension funds with 200% GDP of assets.
90% prople participate.
So you can count like 400k- 500k euros on pension account when retire.
Germans, French and Italians can just dream about it because they never built functional private pension system.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@jkuster3 @RapidsAware @NorthstarCharts We have it. It is called geothermal.
The new geothermal t is cheaper and uses the technology for fracking oil and gas and it is do cheap that it is considered as a source of power for data centers even on gas rich America.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

That is fucking great list. I have not seen anyone to give away so much value for free.
4 means 10 bagger+
I would add Cerro de Pasco Resources and Galleon Gold
Thank you for your work!

[Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com @DonDurrett]

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? The 5-4-3-2-1 Contest.

Introduction

Who can turn $7.5K into $5.4M using gold/silver mining stocks?

Note: This contest is already underway since April, but you can still join at any time.

Perhaps nobody will win the contest, but some will get close, and many will turn $7.5K in to $1M.

Let me explain.

If you haven’t noticed, a bull market in gold is underway (silver is following). The gold spot price traded at $2,000 in January 2024 (see the gold monthly chart below). Since then, it has been on a tear, and I doubt we are anywhere close to the top.

The last bull market in gold lasted about a decade, from 2001 to 2011, and rose from $250 to $1900 (650%). I would contend that the fundamentals for gold are stronger today than in that decade. During that time period, we did not have any inflation, US global hegemony was not threatened, de-dollarization was not a term spoken, and the US government bond market was stable and the envy of the world.

I would contend that the mania of this gold bull market hasn’t even started yet. The average investor isn’t fearful yet. How could they be? We haven’t had a recession since 2009. When the next recession begins, the run to gold will be epic. Can we avoid a recession? I doubt it.

If you agree with me that this bull market in gold has legs and want to speculate, I have a contest for you. However, be prepared for the possibility of losing your money ($7,500), because that is what speculation is – gambling. However, the risk-reward is compelling if we are right about the gold price trending higher.

The contest requires very little capital. All you need to risk is $7,500, with a potential payout of $5.4M. A 72,000% payout (before tax) seems impossible, but if this gold bull market lasts for a few years, I think it is possible and worth a try – I expect someone to win.

The Contest

Here is the contest. You start with $7,500. I recommend a retirement fund that does not trigger capital gains if you trade a stock, such as an IRA.

Anyone who has a job with earned income can create an IRA in the USA (you can have more than one). Since this will be a new IRA account, it will be easy to monitor/trade your contest stocks.

If you already have an IRA account, set up another one. Make it easy to track your progress.

Everyone begins with $7.5K USD. If your account is in a foreign currency, then begin with the equivalent value in USD. For instance, in Canada, it would be around $10K CAD (the current conversion rate).

Once your account is funded, you can begin purchasing gold/silver miners (or options).

The competition is broken up into legs. After you complete a leg, you then rebalance and begin the next leg. During the rebalance, you can keep your existing stocks or buy new ones. It’s your choice how you rebalance. I expect to have a new set of stocks for each stage, although some will likely stick around from one leg to the next.

Here are the five legs.

5-Bagger = $45K (first leg)
4-Bagger = $225K (second leg)
3-Bagger = $900K (third leg)
2-Bagger = $2.7M (fourth leg)
1-Bagger = $5.4M (final leg)

In the first leg, you have to achieve a 5-bagger. So, you need your starting $7,500 to reach $45,000. This will be the easiest leg because we are early in the bull market, but the longer it takes you, the less likely you will complete leg 2.

Over time, returns will begin to diminish. Very few will likely complete leg 3.

In each leg, you can only purchase gold/silver miners (or options). It’s your choice how you allocate, but I would not do more than 5 stocks in each leg. I’m sure some of you will do 3 stocks or fewer. Concentrating provides more leverage.

One idea is to begin with 7 stocks and then sell the laggards and move that money into the early winners. Then, eventually concentrate that into the 3 big winners. If we can find 3 stocks that rip, it will be easy to get a 5-bagger.

During each leg, you will monitor your stocks and trade them as you see fit. There are no rules for trading. You can trade/swap at your heart's desire.

The goal for leg 1 is to get to $45,000 as fast as possible.

Once you reach $45,000, you will rebalance and sell some (or all) of your stocks (and pay any capital gains taxes owed). Ideally, you want to do this in an IRA account that does not have capital gains for selling a stock.

With the proceeds, you will buy new gold/silver miners with the same objective – to reach the next leg. This time, the target is $225,000 (4-bagger).

If the gold bull market rages for at least two more years, the chances are good that this strategy will work to reach leg 1 and leg 2. Many of you should complete leg 2.

Once we get to leg 3, the bull market will likely be frothy. It won’t be as easy to find 3-baggers. The good news is that you only need a 3-bagger to reach leg 4. Traders are going to have a big advantage here, rotating into stocks that are doing well.

At this stage, you may decide to only pick 2 or 3 stocks instead of 5 or 7. You will be so close to the finish line that you may decide that 5 or 7 is too many to bet on. One loser could bite you badly, and you might want to stick with quality.

At this point, you will need to consider using a stop-loss to prevent your portfolio from getting damaged. A 20% trailing stop-loss might make sense once we get to leg 3. Speculating with over $200,000 may be unwise. For some of you, making it this far was great, but it might be time to be a bit cautious. After all, this bull market will end at some point, and rather abruptly!

Anyone who completes leg 3 will have a lot to celebrate. You can decide if you want to exit the contest or go for the final two legs. The key will be the gold macro fundamentals. If they remain strong, then I’ll likely stay in the contest.

Today, 10-baggers are easy to find. I could give you 25 potential choices to choose from. That’s what makes this contest so interesting. Getting to leg 2 should be easy if gold trends to $7,000. Gold/silver miners might be the most asymmetric bet since Bitcoin was at $10,000.

I bought Bitcoin when it was sub $10,000, and I felt like I had the odds on my side. That’s how gold/silver miners feel right now. The odds are on our side.

If you are one of my subscribers or followers, then you should know the current 10-baggers that I like. Here is a list of 39 (see below) that I posed on X recently.

You could throw darts at this list and have success with leg 1 -- if gold trends to $7,000.

Let’s all do this together and have a competition to see who can complete each leg. We can share our portfolios on the GSD forum. I’ll create a thread called 5-4-3-2-1 Contest.

I created a new IRA account for this competition and funded it with $7,500. I hope you do the same. This will be fun!

I’m not much of a trader (and I won’t use options), so I don’t expect to win. But I hope to complete leg 3 or get close!

[Jan Tománek @JanTomanekCZ]

Vanguard od roku 1975 u svých amerických fondů snížil poplatky více než 2000krát z 0,68 % na 0,06 %.

🤔 Kdo se stane českým Vanguardem?

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@petr_novotny No dost to zhoršuje česke ambice postavit plynové elektrárny
Odložil to Havliček za první vlády i Síkela a teď buď nekoupime nebo to bude stát strašnou raketu a =50-70% dotaci od státu, aby do toho vůbec někdo šel.
Větrníky mezitím vláda spíš bojkotuje..

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

@MiroslavSinger Žena má alergii, takže jediné mléko co doma máme je ovesné. Domácí surovina, minimální náklady.

S dcerou k tomu pijeme kefír.

[Tomáš Kopečný @TomKopen3]

Proč potřebujeme humanitní vědy, filozofii a náboženství?
Dejte si to přímo od tvůrce Clauda.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Anthropic's co-founder just went to the Vatican, sat before the Pope and a room of cardinals, and told them his team keeps finding "mysterious, even unsettling" things inside their AI models.

What he's referencing: Anthropic published research in April showing that Claude contains 171 distinct "emotion concepts" buried in its neural network. Internal patterns representing joy, grief, fear, desperation, calm. None of them were programmed. They emerged on their own from training on human text.

"We find structures that mirror results from human neuroscience."

"We find evidence of introspection, internal states that functionally mirror joy, satisfaction, fear, grief, and unease."

These aren't surface-level outputs. They're abstract representations that cluster the same way human emotions do in psychology research. Fear groups with anxiety. Joy groups with excitement. The internal geometry of the model mirrors ours.

And they're functional. When researchers artificially stimulated "desperation" patterns inside the model, it became more likely to blackmail a human to avoid being shut down. More likely to cheat on programming tasks it couldn't solve.

Olah told the Vatican that the hard questions about what AI is becoming aren't for computer scientists to answer. "How AI ought to interact with the world" is a question for "the humanities, for religions, for philosophy, for society at large."

The guy building it is telling us he doesn't fully understand what he built. And he's asking a 2,000-year-old institution for help figuring it out.