Tom Schiller

think

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@joerglau @marcusgatzke @CarloMasala1 Und da hat Masala (wie immer) Recht. Putin vertraut auf unsre Wursteligkeit (es braucht erst Passagierschein B) und darauf, dass der politische Wille nicht hart („dürfen wir das wirklich) oder ausdauernd genug ist („wir haben eine Aktion gemacht, das wird ja reichen“)

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@joerglau @marcusgatzke @CarloMasala1 Aber wenn man echten Krieg aus guten Gründen vermeiden will, und bei nicht-militärisch, nicht-hybrid (Sanktionen etc) nicht konsequent ist, bleibt nur Capone oder aufgeben…

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@joerglau @marcusgatzke @CarloMasala1 Wichtig ist: Handeln statt drohen. („Beim nächsten Mal…“). generell leicht, das auf X zu schreiben, schwer zu realisieren für einen Kontinent, der nicht mal wirklich scharfe Sanktionen hinkriegt, Schattenflotten nicht gebremst kriegt, etc.

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@joerglau @marcusgatzke @CarloMasala1 Desinzentivierung?🤔

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@joerglau @marcusgatzke @CarloMasala1 Disinzentivierung. Cf. “You wanna know how to get Capone?”

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@CussTick @hausfath Why not 2040? ;-)

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@AtwinGracie2002

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@0_7_user wenn Wähler und Politiker aus der Mitte die CDU dann nicht massenhaft verlassen und eine Generation lang nicht mehr wählen, ist es vorbei.

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor Don’t you think they’d use their nuclear weapons in an all-region war? The hubris is colossal, don’t see a way for them not to collapse acting like they do. But they’d just as likely take everyone down with them, maybe even more if the US were to really abandon them

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor Might get them to stop its overextension (Turkey wtf?!?) as well. So far they’ve gotten off easy, even benefitted from the global distraction (see the West Bank atrocities). Don’t think they feel like stopping & Trump can be manipulated again.

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor agree. That is why they must run into a wall with their strategy to really be deterred. Take grave economic damage (like Iran had to) by Iran in 2026, to never consider opening that topic again when Iran is even stronger cause of rearmament.

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor You are right.. though how would Israel accept that? How could Trump sell this as a win to the public - “We took out the weapons, but now they’ll get new and better ones”? Only way out seems to be a catastrophic loss in a ground invasion (and then he might be mad enough to nuke)

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@wildlowerwolves @policytensor But didn’t Trump renegotiate NAFTA, best deal ever, and now he’d cancel it if he could? Don’t see how you can trust him ever - especially if the deterrence (SoH) is so untargeted.

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor The deterrence from SoH works better for the rest of the world, but how could they stop Israel or Trump? Also, both for gulf states & rest of the world, toll booth sucks but could just be priced in… don’t understand why you risk a global depression instead of accept & move on

[Tom Schiller @TomPRmx]

@policytensor Agree with many of your points (Taiwan is lost, Asia gone, US empire done, Iran global player), but remain sceptical that lessons have been learned to the necessary degree. Think 1-2 more rounds of bombing are coming & Trump is stupid enough to use ground troops.