Tom O'Keeffe

Macro, Commodities, Pigs🐷📈

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Carraighill has made its debut on the @RealVision platform.

@higginsdavidw spoke with @maggielake about our thesis for a return of disinflation.

https://t.co/MILVGLDlpP

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Europeans are set for a cold, costly winter this year.

The ongoing energy crisis shows little sign of easing, while the headline inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in October.

#EnergyCrisis #Inflation @Tom_O_Keeffe

https://t.co/nVqakN5O0e

[David Beckworth @DavidBeckworth]

Note that headline CPI closely tracks commodity prices. Consequently, there are two solutions to this high inflation: (1) the Fed preemptively tightens and potentially stalls the recovery or (2) capitalism does its magic on the supply side of economy and lowers commodity prices.

[David W. Higgins @higginsdavidw]

Immensely proud of my colleagues at @CarraighillC for this achievement.

A small Dublin firm making a global impact.

@smurphy126 @Tom_O_Keeffe

[David W. Higgins @higginsdavidw]

Inflation is one of the hottest debates in the world economy today.

I'm so proud to have worked on this with @smurphy126 and @Tom_O_Keeffe over many months this year.

The bottom line is that inflation isn't going to come strongly, as many expect.

I'll explain below why.

1/

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Turkey's economy is in a precarious situation, with FX reserves largely depleted.

@Tom_O_Keeffe asks, will this be one of the greatest emerging market crises of all time?

#Turkey #EmergingMarkets #Erdogan #Economy #Finance #investment #investing

https://t.co/6R5nuPd50A

[Tom O'Keeffe @Tom_O_Keeffe]

I wrote about Italy's weak growth over the last 20 years. You can read it here.

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Italy has unveiled a €248bn package of investments and reforms as part of the #NextGenerationEU #RecoveryFund.

@Tom_O_Keeffe has taken a timely look at the productivity puzzle which has hindered Italian growth since euro adoption.

#NGEU #RecoveryPlan

https://t.co/fJxKZ8IDET

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

A decade on from the Greek crises, Carraighill founder @smurphy126 looks at the ongoing economic challenges in a country which nearly brought the euro to its knees.

https://t.co/CWgm0FMgIz

[Tom O'Keeffe @Tom_O_Keeffe]

Check out the latest blog I wrote on the US economy.

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

With the #BidenAdministration embarking on a new round of fiscal #stimulus, Carraighill Analyst @Tom_O_Keeffe takes a detailed look at the US Fiscal Deficit & the Fallacy of the Broken Window

#fiscalstimulus #finance #economy #usaeconomy #thefed #fed
https://t.co/fAvT4Kl4er

[David W. Higgins @higginsdavidw]

Very proud this morning to see research we produced at @CarraighillC quoted in the Financial Times. @smurphy126

[Donald Schneider @DonFSchneider]

By way of context the net worth held by the bottom 50% has increased 20% since Q1 yet these gains may not be taxed for decades
https://t.co/p3glr8CdO0

[John Authers @johnauthers]

Commodity prices are reviving, and history suggests a prolonged upswing will mean a bearish outlook for stocks; the S&P 500 has never been so expensive, relative to commodity prices. (h/t Jim Reid, @DeutscheBank) https://t.co/22a61DJbea via @bopinion

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

What would happen to the UK banking system if the @bankofengland moved to a policy of negative interest rates?

https://t.co/hrnaHsTYQA

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

As the US votes in #Election2020, Analyst @higginsdavidw looks at the electoral college map and the paths to victory both candidates.

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Household cash flow (savings) in Germany is poised to hit a record high this year.

This is a mix of increased welfare payments and subsidies from government, along with falling consumption and capital expenditure. The government has transferred an extra €70bn to households.

[Stephen Kinsella @stephenkinsella]

Chapeau, @dermotcasey. Chapeau.

[Carraighill @CarraighillC]

Carraighill analyst @higginsdavidw commenting today on falling COVID-19 deaths in Ireland. @IrishTimes @RMcGreevy1301

https://t.co/GYqcIpol9Y

[Dow @mark_dow]

TBF, his COVID strategy has been driving up per capita GDP

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

Still thinking about how in Art Laffer’s absurd toy model of the economy, the optimal solution here is for one of the farmers to starve to death.

[📈 Len Kiefer 📊 @lenkiefer]

Updated: Initial jobless claims as number 1/2