Carraighill has made its debut on the @RealVision platform.
@higginsdavidw spoke with @maggielake about our thesis for a return of disinflation.
https://t.co/MILVGLDlpP
Europeans are set for a cold, costly winter this year.
The ongoing energy crisis shows little sign of easing, while the headline inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in October.
#EnergyCrisis#Inflation@Tom_O_Keeffe
https://t.co/nVqakN5O0e
Note that headline CPI closely tracks commodity prices. Consequently, there are two solutions to this high inflation: (1) the Fed preemptively tightens and potentially stalls the recovery or (2) capitalism does its magic on the supply side of economy and lowers commodity prices.
Inflation is one of the hottest debates in the world economy today.
I'm so proud to have worked on this with @smurphy126 and @Tom_O_Keeffe over many months this year.
The bottom line is that inflation isn't going to come strongly, as many expect.
I'll explain below why.
1/
Italy has unveiled a €248bn package of investments and reforms as part of the #NextGenerationEU#RecoveryFund.
@Tom_O_Keeffe has taken a timely look at the productivity puzzle which has hindered Italian growth since euro adoption.
#NGEU#RecoveryPlan
https://t.co/fJxKZ8IDET
A decade on from the Greek crises, Carraighill founder @smurphy126 looks at the ongoing economic challenges in a country which nearly brought the euro to its knees.
https://t.co/CWgm0FMgIz
Commodity prices are reviving, and history suggests a prolonged upswing will mean a bearish outlook for stocks; the S&P 500 has never been so expensive, relative to commodity prices. (h/t Jim Reid, @DeutscheBank) https://t.co/22a61DJbea via @bopinion
Household cash flow (savings) in Germany is poised to hit a record high this year.
This is a mix of increased welfare payments and subsidies from government, along with falling consumption and capital expenditure. The government has transferred an extra €70bn to households.