🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips

FREE NFL betting tips. Combining statistics & analytical data to help YOU win! 📈

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

THE LONGSHOT LANDS ✅✅

BOOOOMMM!! 16/1 SUPER BOWL WIN!!

SMASH A ❤️ IF YOU WERE ON!!

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DROP A ❤️ IF TAILING!

- The Seahawks boast the NFL's best run defence by expected points allowed, whilst Patriots have the 3rd worst rush success rate in the league. Maye will need to throw the football here if the Patriots are to be succesful, and 31+ pass attempts appears likely.

- The Seahawks rank bottom half in defending explosive downfield balls across the second half of the season and just last week, they allowed outside receptions of 44, 34, 29, and 21yds. Drake Maye leads all QB's in the league in expected points added on passes thrown 20+ yds. Explosive plays could be key here which would thereby boost his yardage numbers considerably.

- Maye’s ability to win on deep explosive plays is also reliant on a deep pass catcher in Kayshon Boutte. Boutte runs 90% of his routes on the outside and 40% of his playoff targets have travelled 20+ yards. He’s cleared this 20+ longest reception line in 2/3 playoff matches, and this match-up appears to set up nicely for him once more.

- The Seahawks have allowed the most receptions to opposing RB’s this season and they're also zone heavy, which TreVeyon Henderson sees a nice uptick when facing. Admittedly, Rhamondre Stevenson has been the focal pass catching RB in the team in recent times, however he actually see's a downturn vs zone, and his recent exploits leaves value in the Henderson price. I wouldn’t write off a number of plays to be schemed in for Henderson to produce here, especially given the aforementioned coverages and the fact this experienced Patriots staff have had 2 weeks to prepare a game plan to overcome a formidable Seahawks defence.

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[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@chefpwaring Great to hear mate, some lovely winners there! Anytime, cheers for all your support this season 🙌

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

BOOM! WHAT AN END TO THE POST SEASON!!

PLAYOFFS AND SUPER BOWL RECAP

✅ 6/12 on Bet-Builders
📈 +33.50pts profit

🙌 16/1 Super Bowl winner

WHO MADE SOME MONEY❤️⤵️

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@kingham_ross Boom! Thank you mate, glad to see that you were on

[Rohan @rohansharma124]

@TommysNFLTips Thank you mate

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@luke48602582 @R__J202 Stick to cricket pal

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@R__J202 @luke48602582 🤦😂

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ARE THE SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS 🏆

They beat the Patriots 29-13 to claim the crown

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@jimmy_sowden I hear it

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

🤔🤦🏼‍♂️

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@connor472010 Fully mate 😭

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

The Super Bowl so far has been ______

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@zackjbeatty Defence vs defence 😴

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

Kayshon Boutte 21 yard gain on his first catch ✅

Nice start to both builders with Kupp also taking 23

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

@brianchegs Cheers mate, and to you 🤝

[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

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DROP A ❤️ IF TAILING!

- The Seahawks boast the NFL's best run defence by expected points allowed, whilst Patriots have the 3rd worst rush success rate in the league. Maye will need to throw the football here if the Patriots are to be succesful, and 31+ pass attempts appears likely.

- The Seahawks rank bottom half in defending explosive downfield balls across the second half of the season and just last week, they allowed outside receptions of 44, 34, 29, and 21yds. Drake Maye leads all QB's in the league in expected points added on passes thrown 20+ yds. Explosive plays could be key here which would thereby boost his yardage numbers considerably.

- Maye’s ability to win on deep explosive plays is also reliant on a deep pass catcher in Kayshon Boutte. Boutte runs 90% of his routes on the outside and 40% of his playoff targets have travelled 20+ yards. He’s cleared this 20+ longest reception line in 2/3 playoff matches, and this match-up appears to set up nicely for him once more.

- The Seahawks have allowed the most receptions to opposing RB’s this season and they're also zone heavy, which TreVeyon Henderson sees a nice uptick when facing. Admittedly, Rhamondre Stevenson has been the focal pass catching RB in the team in recent times, however he actually see's a downturn vs zone, and his recent exploits leaves value in the Henderson price. I wouldn’t write off a number of plays to be schemed in for Henderson to produce here, especially given the aforementioned coverages and the fact this experienced Patriots staff have had 2 weeks to prepare a game plan to overcome a formidable Seahawks defence.

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[🏈 Tommy's NFL Tips @TommysNFLTips]

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- Since the return of Milton Williams the Patriots have not allowed a single individual to surpass 60 rushing yards in any games in which he’s played at least 40% of the defensive snaps, also allowing just 3.1 yds per carry. Walkers rush attempts line sits at 19 tonight, even if he went for 25 against the above statistics he would be falling short of this 81+ line.

- The Seahawks are susceptible to deep explosive plays, they rank bottom half in defending downfield balls across the second half of the season, and they allowed outside receptions of 44, 34, 29, and 21yds last time out. They’ve also played Cover 6 at the highest rate of any team throughout the playoffs for which Kayshon Boutte is the highest targeted player for the Patriots when playing against. Drake Maye is also throwing out wide at a top 10 rate and Boutte looks well placed to profit here as the outside receiver. He’s gone for 66+ yds in 2/3 playoff matches, and he still saw 6 targets when falling short last time out.

- Experience matters in these big games, and Cooper Kupp can show as a reliable pass catcher in the Seahawks offence, as already shown in his increased post-season role, seeing his regular season target rate increase from 16% to 22%. Patriots are expected to play increased man coverage here to suppress JSN, and Kupp arguably gets the best match-up here against the man scheme. He also runs 40% of his routes in the slot where the Patriots have proven vulnerable this season. He’s over this 29+ line in 10/11 previous playoff matches, and he only fell 2yds short of this line in his only miss.

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