Tony Farnham

Economic Strategist/Analyst with Patersons Securities; 35+ years experience in financial markets. VIEWS EXPRESSED DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THOSE OF PATERSONS.

[Tony Farnham @Tony_Farnham]

Our 4Q17 CPI fails to provide monetary policy “smoking gun” for RBA; means bullets fired by the “increase rates in mid-2018” crowd are still of the rubber variety; many retailers still look coy about price increases

[Tony Farnham @Tony_Farnham]

Small October jobs gain powered by full-time component; employment up 3% over past year but annual wages growth ~ 2% = contradiction in basic economic theory – perhaps historic drivers of labour demand and supply have been recast!

[Tony Farnham @Tony_Farnham]

ABS Wage Cost Index only +0.5% in 3Q17 (despite 2017 Minimum Wage Case boost) + sub-100 Nov. WBC consumer sentiment index (utilities charges, interest rate and political uncertainties) = near-term ceiling on consumer spending upside.

[Tony Farnham @Tony_Farnham]

RBA reduces FY18 GDP + underlying CPI f/casts; another blow to interest rate hawks not focussed enough on spluttering consumer spending; backs our long-time thesis that no hikes in RBA benchmark rate are likely over coming year.