Torbjörn Isaksson

Chief Analyst, Nordea Markets, Sweden

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪🌍 We have made an overview of academic research of factors determining interest rates longer term. Our conclusion is that the Riksbank’s policy rate should be around 3% longer out. (Only in Swedish, sorry…) ➡️ https://t.co/o1ZDgBGgRL

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 A parliamentary committee will today propose that the surplus target for public finances will be replaced with a balance target => expected + more expansionary fiscal policy. But effects should not be exaggerated. ➡️ https://t.co/0BBkG7J3vg

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Riksbank's message largely as expected. 25bp rate cuts in the pipeline, but the door is open ajar for a bigger move in November or December. ➡️ https://t.co/EMjtL8lvzS

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

⬇️Heads-up! Swedish flash CPIF and CPIF ex energy as from the September reading due 8 Oct! ⬇️

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Core inflation as expected in August, but the composition was dovish as services inflation was lower than forecast. 50bp rate cut nevertheless unlikely in September. ➡️ https://t.co/mOMfQbi3u6

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 NIER's Tendency Survey - stagnant. GDP fell in Q2 and there is not much improvement in Q3. Rate cuts needed. ➡️ https://t.co/5jSGBZq1Sr

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 No drama in the Q2 GDP numbers. GDP was revised upwards to -0.3% q/q, largely as expected. GDP has been stagnate for almost three years. Depressed domestic demand. ➡️ https://t.co/5BJduy8fqC

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Unemployment 8.6% in July. The labour market is indeed an argument for rate cuts.➡️ https://t.co/UTS4VfbpRx

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Riksbank added one additional rate cut in its guidance. A policy rate at 2.75% by year-end increasingly likely. The SEK stable. ➡️ https://t.co/SQpJk7XqLo

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Governor Thedéen in June: "...somewhat weaker development in the labour market is one reason why I believe that we should proceed somewhat faster with the rate cuts." Agree.

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 July inflation preview: Core hitting the target & inflation remains below Riksbank's view. ➡️ https://t.co/j5gSLrExjy

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Consumption concerns. ➡️ https://t.co/4dCBSM8zEA

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 July PMI below 50 and order intake plummeted - mainly summer noise. If anything, the report supports our view that the recovery will be bumpy and gradual. ➡️ https://t.co/0v9SLNKl5u

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 GDP dropped by 0.8% q/q in Q2 according to SCB's flash, most likely due to sluggish domestic demand. ➡️ https://t.co/mgnIQSZCW0

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 June inflation was low. A rate cut in August is a done deal, and very much suggest that the Riksbank will take action in September as well. Comment ➡️ https://t.co/RGifyfAWTU

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Seasonal adjustments are tricky, not least for LFS data. Weak numbers for May. ➡️ https://t.co/ewFqnOuCEW @SusanneSpectr

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 After several months with downward surprises, inflation came out higher than we had expected. We still see inflation below the Riksbank's forecast and thus more rate cuts than the bank signals. ➡️ https://t.co/ut6PZ4JG4j

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 Weak hard data for April underline that the recovery is fragile. Consumption and especially order intake to the manufacturing industry stand out. ➡️ https://t.co/CG17Le3hRE

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

@daniwaldenstrom Den tidigare nedgången av fraktkostnaderna, fallande råvaru- och energipriser talar för att priserna på varor faller. Senaste tidens uppgång i fraktpriserna kanske minskar nedåtriskerna i prognoserna, snarare än att det lyfter inflationen. Beror såklart på hur mkt fraktkost ökar.

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

And cost pressures are muted in the service sector, according to the PMI report.

[Torbjörn Isaksson @TorbjrnIsaksson]

🇸🇪 PMIs not convincing. Fragile recovery, rate cuts would help.