Selling puts works until the stock gaps 20% below your strike. Then you find out whether you actually had a plan.
Here is mine.
If I still believe in the company, I roll down and out. More time, another credit, a lower strike.
If the roll does not make sense, I take assignment. Now I own shares at a cost basis below where the stock was when I opened the trade, and I start selling calls against them.
What I do not do is panic close for a loss because the position turned red three weeks in.
Good companies recover, and the premium keeps coming in while you wait.
If it never went against you, everyone would be doing it.
$MU $NVDA $AMD $MRVL
You could buy 100 shares of $BE right now for about $18,112.
Or you could sell the $150 put expiring August 21 and get paid $1,700 to wait.
Bloom Energy reports earnings tomorrow after the close, and the options market is pricing in a move of roughly 27% in either direction. That fear is why this put is paying what it's paying. Implied volatility sits at 178%.
Three ways this plays out.
The stock stays above $150 through expiration. You keep the full $1,700. That's an 11.3% return on capital in 25 days, roughly 165% annualized.
The stock drops but you still like the company. Roll down and out, collect another credit, give the position more time to work.
You get assigned. Your real cost basis is $133 per share, which is 26% below where the stock trades today. You own shares at a price the market hasn't seen in a while and you start selling covered calls against them.
The setup: $150 strike, 17% cushion below the current price, 0.26 delta, 25 days to expiration.
You're getting paid a lot of premium here because there's real event risk attached to it. Earnings can gap a stock through any strike. Only sell this if $133 is a price you'd genuinely be happy owning Bloom Energy at.
Not financial advice.
Here are 5 themes I think matter most over the next 10 years.
Each one plays an important role:
AI cloud - $IREN
Compute is the scarcest resource in tech right now, and IREN owns the power to produce it. A $9.7 billion five-year contract with Microsoft to run NVIDIA GB300s at its 750MW Childress campus, with Microsoft prepaying 20% up front. Targeting $3.4 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year end. Owning your own power is the moat.
Custom silicon - $MRVL
Every hyperscaler is designing its own AI chip and almost none of them can build it alone. Marvell's custom silicon business went from zero to $1.5 billion in a single fiscal year and doubled. Data center is now 76% of revenue at a record $1.83 billion a quarter. It gets paid no matter whose cloud wins.
Autonomous defense - $ONDS
Drones and counter-drone systems went from niche to budget priority. Ondas booked $70 million in new orders in four weeks and $150 million in Q2 across counter-UAS, ISR, and precision strike. Raised 2026 guidance to at least $525 million after acquiring DZYNE. Partnered with Palantir.
Hyperscalers - $AMZN
Three high margin engines compounding at once. AWS reaccelerated to 28% growth at a $150 billion run rate, its fastest in 15 quarters. Advertising crossed $70 billion trailing. Its own chips run at a $20 billion annual pace. A record $200 billion of capex this year is building the next decade.
Domestic energy - $TE
None of the above runs without power, and increasingly it has to be made here. T1 Energy has 5GW of module capacity in Texas with a 2.1GW cell fab coming online in Austin late this year. Revenue up 232%. Management targets $375 to $450 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2027.
We just experienced the worst monthly sell off in momentum stocks ever recorded.
If you have survived these past few weeks, give yourself a pat on the back.
I know so many traders that blew up their accounts over the last 2 weeks.
This market will HUMBLE you.
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Enjoy a 1-week free trial with full access to the complete Skylit suite, including Heat Seeker, Talon, AtlasNinja, Dpools, and Flowseaker, Falcon.
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Enjoy a 1-week free trial with full access to the complete Skylit suite, including Heat Seeker, Talon, AtlasNinja, Dpools, and Flowseaker, Falcon.
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Enjoy a 1-week free trial with full access to the complete Skylit suite, including Heat Seeker, Talon, AtlasNinja, Dpools, and Flowseaker, Falcon.
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