Olivia
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Trinity
@TradeACH
Joined December 2025
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Google's former Cloud AI director, who co-wrote their 50-page agent playbook:
"the coding agent is the model plus the harness around it"
that harness is what Graph Engineering actually is: you stop writing prompts and start designing the system your agents run on
in 18 minutes Addy Osmani shows exactly where Google draws the line between what the agents run and what you still own
the graph you design:
- agents own the inner loop: investigate, implement, test, report
- you own the outer loop: decide, verify, approve, answer for it
- the agent hands you evidence, not answers: diffs, tests, logs, traces, screenshots
- Google's own playbook puts the model at roughly 10% of the result, the harness around it is the other 90%
the number that stings: 96% of developers don't fully trust AI code, and only about half verify before they commit
the takeaway: nobody gets paid for the model choice anymore, they get paid for the graph around it
i've sat through a lot of agent talks, this is the cleanest map of the new job i've found
watch and bookmark it, then read the Graph Engineering breakdown below ↓
The setup for growth stocks is pretty straightforward:
• The $QQQ gets back above the 50-day moving average.
OR
• We get a correction of 10%+ followed by a legitimate Follow-Through Day.
Until one of those happens, I view this as chop.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities elsewhere. Railroads, financials, REITs, Energy and other groups can absolutely have their own setups.
But that’s not what I’m talking about.
I’m talking about software, semis, neo-cloud, photonics, memory and data center names. For those groups, I’d rather wait for one of those two conditions than force trades in an environment that hasn’t yet proven itself.
Your timeline is full of people explaining why the move happened.
After it already happened..
Mine is about finding it before everyone else.
This week's receipts:
+620.44% combined alpha.
Different game.
Different results. 🐦⬛
❤️ & share if you are ready for next week!
Rest up, see you Monday!
R.I.P. GOOGLE FLIGHTS IN 2026.
R.I.P. BOOKING COM IN 2026.
R.I.P. SKYSCANNER IN 2026.
$1,190 flight. I paid $159.
Use these 10 prompts before booking your next trip: 👇🏼
(Save this 🔖 you��ll need it later)
🚨BREAKING: PEOPLE KNOW WHEN YOU'RE USING CHATGPT AND CLAUDE.
The structure, the tone, the excessive polish. It all gives you away.
7 prompts that fix this:
Met a contractor in Phoenix who got denied $250,000 from Chase on a Monday and approved for $250,000 from Chase on a Friday
Same LLC. Same credit score. Same bank. Same branch
He changed one word on the application
His LLC was registered as "real estate brokerage." NAICS code 531210. Chase's underwriting algorithm flags that code as high-risk lending. Automatic denial at anything over $30,000
His accountant told him to refile the LLC's business activity as "property management." NAICS code 531311. Same LLC. Same articles of organization. Same operations. Just a different 6-digit code on the Secretary of State website
Chase's system saw "property management" and approved him for $250,000 at 0% for 12 months across two Ink cards
$250,000 approved. $0 denied. Same human. Same business. One word on a state filing
Every business credit card application runs through an automated underwriting system. The system checks your personal credit score, your stated revenue, and your NAICS code. The NAICS code tells the algorithm what industry you're in. And every industry has a different risk tier inside the bank's model
High-risk NAICS codes that trigger automatic denials or reduced limits:
531210 (real estate brokerage): flagged
523910 (investment advisory): flagged
722511 (full-service restaurant): flagged
453998 (miscellaneous retail): flagged
541990 (catch-all professional services): flagged
Low-risk NAICS codes that sail through underwriting:
531311 (property management): approved
541611 (management consulting): approved
541810 (advertising/marketing): approved
561499 (business support services): approved
511210 (software publishing): approved
The difference between "real estate brokerage" and "property management" is roughly $105,000 in approved credit at the same bank, same day, same score
Nobody tells you this because nobody at Chase is incentivized to help you pick the right code. The loan officer doesn't know. The application doesn't explain. You type in your business activity and the algorithm decides your fate before a human ever sees your file
Step 1: Look up your current NAICS code at https://t.co/ghg91fN2Kr. Type in your business activity. You'll see 3-5 codes that technically describe what you do
Step 2: Check which code your LLC is registered under at your state's Secretary of State website
Step 3: If your code falls in the high-risk bucket, file an amendment changing your registered business activity to the lowest-risk code that still accurately describes your operations. "Marketing consulting" instead of "advertising agency." "Business support services" instead of "virtual assistant staffing." Same work, different risk tier
Step 4: Update the NAICS code on your IRS records by filing Form 8822-B or updating it on your next tax return
Step 5: Wait 30 days for state records to update, then apply
The guy in Phoenix used his $250,000 to put down payments on 4 rental properties in Mesa. Cash offers. Closed all 4 in 19 days. Combined rent covers every minimum payment plus $2,200 a month in cash flow. Refinanced at month 8 with a DSCR lender, paid the cards to zero, and kept all 4 houses
He went from denied to $250,000 approved to owning 4 rentals in under a year. One word on a state filing. That's it
the algorithm is deciding how much money you get before a banker even touches your application. and nobody at the bank is going to call you and say "hey try a different NAICS code." they'd rather deny you and move on lmfaooo
link in bio if you want up to $250,000 at 0% APR (700+ score required). we map every NAICS code, sequence every bank, and build the full stack
🚨 THE MOST BULLISH SIGN! 🚨
Philip Morris $PM is at a new all-time high.
Ten years ago, the company announced it was going to kill its own business. It would replace cigarettes with smoke-free products. Investors thought they'd lost their minds.
Today, 40% of revenue is smoke-free. ZYN and IQOS are growing 20%+ a year. Each smoke-free pack brings in 2.5 times the revenue of a cigarette.
The boring tobacco stock that everyone wrote off just made a new high.
The companies that survive the next decade are the ones willing to destroy their best product before someone else does.
#IBDPartner
This is the most bullish bit of the $GOOG earnings call for AI infrastructure names like $IREN $NUAI $CIFR $WULF
82% AI Cloud growth Y/Y beating expectations of ~64%.
Operating margins came in at 35.6% Y/Y with expectations ~30.8%.
FCF is now negative for the first time since IPO!
Willing to take the margin hit to lock up third party capacity to grow market share and continue to accelerate growth. Capex guide upped from 180-190B to 195-205B.
Super bullish AI infrastructure
Furu posts an OTM $SPX / $SPY 0dte,
➡️buy an ATM 5dte $XSP or $SPY
Your win rate skyrockets!
Hate to be that person but trying to get out of the rat race on zero dte options isn’t for 99% of you.
Most are too driven on p/l, emotions & greed to turn a profit.
You want the sauce?
Furu posts an OTM $SPX / $SPY 0dte, buy an ATM 5dte $XSP or $SPY
Your win rate skyrockets!
$BTC:
Bears have gone quiet as Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the weekly MA200 and is now approaching the Green Line. In my opinion, a confirmed breakout above the Green Line would open the path toward the $80,000 region as the next major target. The Green line is located at $66,200! The Indicator is a Monthly one, so a monthly close above the Green line is required, however several daily closes above it will be a great sign for me!
Even if Bitcoin gets rejected at the Green Line initially, I would not consider that a problem. In that scenario, I expect price to consolidate sideways between the Green and White Lines before eventually breaking above the Green Line.
Whether the breakout happens now or later, a confirmed move above the Green Line remains my primary expectation, and I have positioned myself accordingly! All my exact buy orders, trading strategies and ideas are shared in Premium only! What I post on X is maybe 5% of educational content that is shared on Premium! Join now: https://t.co/oP8wCPvlZh
Bernie. Bernie, Bernie, Bernie.
Let me get this straight, because I want to make sure I am reading your economics homework correctly, and I did not eat a bowl of alphabet soup this morning so bear with me. You just listed UnitedHealth's $5.48 billion quarterly profit as proof of corporate greed. Cute. Except that profit happened WHILE the Affordable Care Act — the law that guarantees these insurers a captive, subsidized, taxpayer-fed customer base — has been the law of the land for fifteen years. You are not exposing corporate greed, Senator. You are reading me the receipt for your own bill. The ACA did not shrink the insurance industry. It turned it into a government-guaranteed cash cow, and now you are shocked, SHOCKED, that the cow got fat. Eats soup with a fork, this one.
And here is the part that should really sting. Your own party just finished a 43-day shutdown demanding MORE money be poured into that exact system, because the temporary COVID subsidies YOUR PARTY wrote into the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — zero Republican votes on either bill, by the way — expired right on schedule, exactly as YOU designed them to. Not a single Republican voted to end those subsidies. You did. Then you shut down the government to admit, out loud, on the record, that a law literally named the AFFORDABLE Care Act cannot survive without emergency pandemic cash. That is not an insult from me. That is a confession from you.
So now the solution is Medicare for All. Naturally. Because when a fifteen-year-old government program made the insurance companies richer, the answer is obviously MORE government program, just bigger. If ignorance is bliss you must be the happiest man in the Senate. Independent estimates put full single-payer implementation at somewhere between forty and sixty percent of the ENTIRE federal budget. Forty to sixty percent, Senator. Larger than Social Security. Larger than defense. You want me to hand over half the country's checkbook to the same apparatus that just admitted its last healthcare experiment doesn't work without a subsidy IV drip.
Let's talk about who's asking. You have served in the United States government for something like forty years between the House and Senate, and by my count the bills you personally got across the finish line as lead sponsor could be counted on one hand, mostly involving the naming of federal buildings. Somewhere out there is a tree tirelessly producing oxygen for you, Senator, and it owes itself an apology for the return on investment. This is also the same man who, as a young idealist, tried out communal living on a hippie commune and did not exactly stick around long enough to collect a pension from it. Now you want the reins to fifty percent of the national budget. I keep hearing "tax the rich" out of a man worth several million dollars who charters private jets on his "Fighting Oligarchy" tour because, in his own words, he isn't waiting in line at United with the rest of us peasants. Bless your heart. That is rich even by Congressional standards. Couldn't pour water out of a boot with instructions on the heel, but sure, hand him the checkbook.
And before you tell me capitalism failed and it's finally socialism's turn — how's that working out for your ideological younger brother in New York? Zohran Mamdani just announced a THIRTY MILLION DOLLAR government grocery store in a city his own comptroller says is worse than broke. Kansas City tried this. Erie, Kansas tried this. That is not a hunch, Senator, that is a lab result, and I am a science teacher, so let me walk you through the peer review.
An experiment only counts as science if it has been REPLICATED. Not run once. Run again. And again. Under different conditions, different continents, different decades, different "well THIS time we'll do it right" true believers standing at the podium. So let's replicate it together, shall we, because apparently nobody handed you the lab notes.
Trial one: the USSR, 1920s and 1930s. Stalin seized the farms, collectivized the kulaks, and centrally planned the harvest. Result: the Holodomor, a man-made famine in Ukraine that starved somewhere between five and ten million people to death while grain was actively being EXPORTED past their starving bodies. That is not a rounding error. That is a control group that died.
Trial two: Cuba, 1959 onward. Castro nationalized every business, every farm, every bank on the island. Sugar production, once the envy of the hemisphere, collapsed. The economy shrank thirty-five percent in a single decade when the Soviet training wheels came off. Extreme poverty today sits near eighty-eight percent. Same experiment. Same result.
Trial three: Venezuela, sitting on some of the largest oil reserves on the PLANET, nationalized its oil industry and ran the socialist playbook to the letter. Production collapsed from three and a half million barrels a day to under one million. Hyperinflation peaked past sixty-three THOUSAND percent. Nine million people fled. You cannot bribe your way out of the results with oil money. We tried. It's in the data.
Trial four, and this one should make every teacher in America wince: China's Great Leap Forward, 1958 to 1962. Mao abolished private farming, herded peasants into communes, melted down their pots and pans for backyard steel that was too low-grade to use for anything. Somewhere between fifteen and forty-five million people starved. Some regions saw cannibalism. That is not a typo. That is what happens when central planners replace the price system with a five-year plan and a slogan.
Trial five: North Korea, present day, running the same command economy with the Juche twist. Famine in the 1990s killed hundreds of thousands to over a million. Markets are technically illegal and thrive anyway in the shadows, because human beings will trade even when their government threatens to shoot them for it.
Trial six is my personal favorite because it is the cleanest natural experiment in the history of economics: East versus West Germany. Same people. Same language. Same culture. Same starting point in 1945. One half got markets, one half got the Stasi and collectivized industry. East German productivity settled at roughly thirty to seventy-five percent of the West's, and the population had to build a WALL to stop its own citizens from swimming, tunneling, and hot-air-ballooning their way out. Nobody builds a wall to keep people from fleeing prosperity, Senator.
Trial seven: Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975 to 1979. They abolished money entirely. No markets. No private property. Total state control, straight out of the textbook you apparently keep on your nightstand. One point seven to three million people, roughly a quarter of the country, died of starvation, overwork, and execution in FOUR YEARS.
And for the extra credit column: Ethiopia's Derg collectivization, Tanzania's Ujamaa villages, Yugoslavia's market-socialism ceiling, Vietnam before it finally abandoned the model, India's decades of License Raj stagnation, and Poland and the rest of the Eastern Bloc running factories that burned three times the steel per unit of output compared to the free market next door. Every single trial, same hypothesis, same result. I have seen middle schoolers design better controlled experiments during a volcano science fair.
That is not one anecdote, Bernie. That is a stack of peer-reviewed, historically documented, independently verified trials spanning four continents and a full century, and the conclusion section reads the same every time: shortages, queues, corruption, and a body count north of a hundred million people once you tally every collectivized farm, every purged kulak, and every commune that ran out of rice. If an experiment fails this many times in this many labs, a real scientist stops blaming the equipment and starts questioning the hypothesis. You, apparently, would rather run trial number eight on 340 million Americans and call it "finally getting it right." Trying to reason with some folks really is like trying to baptize a cat.
Quinn's First Law of Liberalism: liberalism always generates the exact opposite of its stated intent. You want cheaper healthcare, you get record insurer profits. You want affordable food, you get a thirty-million-dollar failed grocery store. You want to fight the oligarchy, you fly private. Every single time. Set your watch by it.
I keep asking Democrats this question and I never get an answer: what have YOU actually done to help people, versus just handing out someone else's money? Because handouts without a ladder out is not compassion. It is a leash. And I think deep down you know that, Senator, or you wouldn't need the private jet to get away from the people you claim to be fighting for. You're about as useful as a screen door on a submarine when it comes to actually running anything, but boy can you point fingers.
You are the human version of period cramps on this topic, Bernie, and I mean that with the utmost respect for a man who has spent forty years discovering new ways to spend money he didn't earn. Has a leak in the think tank if he genuinely believes THIS is the moment socialism finally works. Unless your name is Google, Senator, you need to stop acting like you know everything about running an economy you have personally never had to run.
But what do I know. I am only a medically retired Army combat medic and a science teacher who actually reads the Congressional Budget Office numbers before I open my mouth about a trillion-dollar healthcare takeover.
@JoJoFromJerz @atrupar @TheYoungTurks #MAGA #Veterans #Trump
•This X post is a detailed rebuttal from a retired Army combat medic and science teacher to Bernie Sanders’ criticism of UnitedHealth’s profits and advocacy for Medicare for All, arguing the Affordable Care Act created subsidized profits for insurers rather than curbing greed.
•The author accuses Democrats of designing temporary COVID-era subsidies that expired, forcing government shutdown demands, and claims full single-payer would consume 40-60% of the federal budget while ignoring Bernie’s limited legislative record and personal contradictions like private jet use.
•It presents a series of historical case studies—USSR Holodomor, Cuba’s collapse, Venezuela’s hyperinflation, Mao’s Great Leap Forward, and East vs. West Germany—as replicated evidence that centralized economic control leads to shortages, poverty, and mass deaths, rejecting further government expansion in healthcare.
Bernie. Bernie, Bernie, Bernie.
Let me get this straight, because I want to make sure I am reading your economics homework correctly, and I did not eat a bowl of alphabet soup this morning so bear with me. You just listed UnitedHealth's $5.48 billion quarterly profit as proof of corporate greed. Cute. Except that profit happened WHILE the Affordable Care Act — the law that guarantees these insurers a captive, subsidized, taxpayer-fed customer base — has been the law of the land for fifteen years. You are not exposing corporate greed, Senator. You are reading me the receipt for your own bill. The ACA did not shrink the insurance industry. It turned it into a government-guaranteed cash cow, and now you are shocked, SHOCKED, that the cow got fat. Eats soup with a fork, this one.
And here is the part that should really sting. Your own party just finished a 43-day shutdown demanding MORE money be poured into that exact system, because the temporary COVID subsidies YOUR PARTY wrote into the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 — zero Republican votes on either bill, by the way — expired right on schedule, exactly as YOU designed them to. Not a single Republican voted to end those subsidies. You did. Then you shut down the government to admit, out loud, on the record, that a law literally named the AFFORDABLE Care Act cannot survive without emergency pandemic cash. That is not an insult from me. That is a confession from you.
So now the solution is Medicare for All. Naturally. Because when a fifteen-year-old government program made the insurance companies richer, the answer is obviously MORE government program, just bigger. If ignorance is bliss you must be the happiest man in the Senate. Independent estimates put full single-payer implementation at somewhere between forty and sixty percent of the ENTIRE federal budget. Forty to sixty percent, Senator. Larger than Social Security. Larger than defense. You want me to hand over half the country's checkbook to the same apparatus that just admitted its last healthcare experiment doesn't work without a subsidy IV drip.
Let's talk about who's asking. You have served in the United States government for something like forty years between the House and Senate, and by my count the bills you personally got across the finish line as lead sponsor could be counted on one hand, mostly involving the naming of federal buildings. Somewhere out there is a tree tirelessly producing oxygen for you, Senator, and it owes itself an apology for the return on investment. This is also the same man who, as a young idealist, tried out communal living on a hippie commune and did not exactly stick around long enough to collect a pension from it. Now you want the reins to fifty percent of the national budget. I keep hearing "tax the rich" out of a man worth several million dollars who charters private jets on his "Fighting Oligarchy" tour because, in his own words, he isn't waiting in line at United with the rest of us peasants. Bless your heart. That is rich even by Congressional standards. Couldn't pour water out of a boot with instructions on the heel, but sure, hand him the checkbook.
And before you tell me capitalism failed and it's finally socialism's turn — how's that working out for your ideological younger brother in New York? Zohran Mamdani just announced a THIRTY MILLION DOLLAR government grocery store in a city his own comptroller says is worse than broke. Kansas City tried this. Erie, Kansas tried this. That is not a hunch, Senator, that is a lab result, and I am a science teacher, so let me walk you through the peer review.
An experiment only counts as science if it has been REPLICATED. Not run once. Run again. And again. Under different conditions, different continents, different decades, different "well THIS time we'll do it right" true believers standing at the podium. So let's replicate it together, shall we, because apparently nobody handed you the lab notes.
Trial one: the USSR, 1920s and 1930s. Stalin seized the farms, collectivized the kulaks, and centrally planned the harvest. Result: the Holodomor, a man-made famine in Ukraine that starved somewhere between five and ten million people to death while grain was actively being EXPORTED past their starving bodies. That is not a rounding error. That is a control group that died.
Trial two: Cuba, 1959 onward. Castro nationalized every business, every farm, every bank on the island. Sugar production, once the envy of the hemisphere, collapsed. The economy shrank thirty-five percent in a single decade when the Soviet training wheels came off. Extreme poverty today sits near eighty-eight percent. Same experiment. Same result.
Trial three: Venezuela, sitting on some of the largest oil reserves on the PLANET, nationalized its oil industry and ran the socialist playbook to the letter. Production collapsed from three and a half million barrels a day to under one million. Hyperinflation peaked past sixty-three THOUSAND percent. Nine million people fled. You cannot bribe your way out of the results with oil money. We tried. It's in the data.
Trial four, and this one should make every teacher in America wince: China's Great Leap Forward, 1958 to 1962. Mao abolished private farming, herded peasants into communes, melted down their pots and pans for backyard steel that was too low-grade to use for anything. Somewhere between fifteen and forty-five million people starved. Some regions saw cannibalism. That is not a typo. That is what happens when central planners replace the price system with a five-year plan and a slogan.
Trial five: North Korea, present day, running the same command economy with the Juche twist. Famine in the 1990s killed hundreds of thousands to over a million. Markets are technically illegal and thrive anyway in the shadows, because human beings will trade even when their government threatens to shoot them for it.
Trial six is my personal favorite because it is the cleanest natural experiment in the history of economics: East versus West Germany. Same people. Same language. Same culture. Same starting point in 1945. One half got markets, one half got the Stasi and collectivized industry. East German productivity settled at roughly thirty to seventy-five percent of the West's, and the population had to build a WALL to stop its own citizens from swimming, tunneling, and hot-air-ballooning their way out. Nobody builds a wall to keep people from fleeing prosperity, Senator.
Trial seven: Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge, 1975 to 1979. They abolished money entirely. No markets. No private property. Total state control, straight out of the textbook you apparently keep on your nightstand. One point seven to three million people, roughly a quarter of the country, died of starvation, overwork, and execution in FOUR YEARS.
And for the extra credit column: Ethiopia's Derg collectivization, Tanzania's Ujamaa villages, Yugoslavia's market-socialism ceiling, Vietnam before it finally abandoned the model, India's decades of License Raj stagnation, and Poland and the rest of the Eastern Bloc running factories that burned three times the steel per unit of output compared to the free market next door. Every single trial, same hypothesis, same result. I have seen middle schoolers design better controlled experiments during a volcano science fair.
That is not one anecdote, Bernie. That is a stack of peer-reviewed, historically documented, independently verified trials spanning four continents and a full century, and the conclusion section reads the same every time: shortages, queues, corruption, and a body count north of a hundred million people once you tally every collectivized farm, every purged kulak, and every commune that ran out of rice. If an experiment fails this many times in this many labs, a real scientist stops blaming the equipment and starts questioning the hypothesis. You, apparently, would rather run trial number eight on 340 million Americans and call it "finally getting it right." Trying to reason with some folks really is like trying to baptize a cat.
Quinn's First Law of Liberalism: liberalism always generates the exact opposite of its stated intent. You want cheaper healthcare, you get record insurer profits. You want affordable food, you get a thirty-million-dollar failed grocery store. You want to fight the oligarchy, you fly private. Every single time. Set your watch by it.
I keep asking Democrats this question and I never get an answer: what have YOU actually done to help people, versus just handing out someone else's money? Because handouts without a ladder out is not compassion. It is a leash. And I think deep down you know that, Senator, or you wouldn't need the private jet to get away from the people you claim to be fighting for. You're about as useful as a screen door on a submarine when it comes to actually running anything, but boy can you point fingers.
You are the human version of period cramps on this topic, Bernie, and I mean that with the utmost respect for a man who has spent forty years discovering new ways to spend money he didn't earn. Has a leak in the think tank if he genuinely believes THIS is the moment socialism finally works. Unless your name is Google, Senator, you need to stop acting like you know everything about running an economy you have personally never had to run.
But what do I know. I am only a medically retired Army combat medic and a science teacher who actually reads the Congressional Budget Office numbers before I open my mouth about a trillion-dollar healthcare takeover.
@JoJoFromJerz @atrupar @TheYoungTurks #MAGA #Veterans #Trump
A billionaire trader has spent 40 years trying to delete a one-hour documentary. It shows him making $100 million in a single afternoon. He predicted the crash that made it possible three months in advance. He has never explained why he wants the film gone. His name is Paul Tudor Jones. The film is on YouTube.
The documentary is called "Trader." PBS filmed it in 1987, three months before Black Monday. Jones was 32 years old, working from a small New York office, wearing shorts and a t-shirt, yelling at his phones, throwing paper across the room, and sleeping under his desk. The film captures him and his research partner Peter Borish overlaying a chart of the 1929 market on 1987, month by month. The two charts tracked within one percent. Borish said this is exactly what happened in 1929. Jones said if the analog holds, October is when it breaks.
On October 19, 1987, the Dow fell 22.6 percent in a single day. It remains the largest one-day percentage loss in stock market history. That afternoon, Tudor Jones covered his shorts and made roughly $100 million. He was 33 years old. He was one of the very few traders on the street who came out ahead.
He tried to bury the tape because it made him look reckless in a professional world that punished swagger. Twenty years of legal effort did not delete it. Someone kept a copy. It is on YouTube. It has fewer views than most makeup tutorials.
The film is not really about a crash. It is about a specific philosophy of trading. Jones is shown building conviction slowly, sizing carefully, then striking hard when the setup arrives. He is never once shown making a random bet. He is shown doing the same thing five times a day, every day, for three months.
His signature line, repeated across a 45-year career:
"The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense."
He does not try to be right. He tries not to lose. He sets stops tight, cuts positions fast, and never averages down on a loser. Every trade in the film follows this template.
Tudor Investment Corp, the fund he founded in 1980, has compounded at roughly 19 percent a year for 45 years. He is 71 years old and still trading. His method has not changed since the film.
The lesson: greatness in markets is a refusal, not a talent. Refusal to be reckless. Refusal to be certain. Refusal to average down. Refusal to trust yourself in a drawdown. Tudor Jones has refused those refusals for 45 years.
The tape is free. The philosophy is repeated in every trade. Most traders will never watch it.
$BTC: Report of the Century:
Today I am making one of the biggest announcements since I sold the top in September 2025. I am taking profit on every single crypto short. The Bitcoin short built between $115,000 and $125,000 is closed now with a gigantic gain. The $80,500 short, built between $79,000 and $82,000, is closed with another massive profit. The 100+ altcoin shorts I opened over the last several months are also closed, locking in another enormous win on top. The time of drinking tea is over. Congratulations to everyone who ignored the noise, trusted the framework and followed me from September 2025 until today.
Buying Bitcoin Spot:
For the first time since September 2025, I am buying Bitcoin spot again. Today, I entered at $64,000 for the absolute long term. For the first time since 9 Months I am buying Bitcoin for the long term! It is the beginning of a structured accumulation strategy, and I will execute it with the same discipline that allowed me to sell the top.
The Accumulation Strategy
Everyone who followed my strategy at $115,000–$125,000 remembers exactly how it worked. Every day Bitcoin traded inside that zone, I sold 10% of my spot position and added shorts. I did not care whether BTC was at $116,000, $120,000 or $124,000. Now I am doing the exact same thing in reverse. Every day Bitcoin remains between $54,000 and $64,000, I will buy 5% of my allocated capital in spot Bitcoin. Not 10% this time, but 5%, because I want to spread the accumulation across a wider period! If Bitcoin stays at $62,000, I buy. If it falls to $58,000, I buy. If it drops to $56,000, I buy. If it wicks into $54,000, I become more aggressive. If it returns to $64,000, I still buy. As long as Bitcoin remains inside this zone of 54-64k I am buying every day with 5% of my entire capital limited to 20 days.
The Technical Zone and Sentiment Shift
The legendary weekly MA200 sits in this region and is now being tested from below. Bitcoin already reached the lower section of this area last week. The top of the 2024 consolidation box also aligns with it. More importantly, sentiment has completely flipped. And I need to say, there are more bears, much more bears than bulls outside, and I dislike being one of many. The same people who were screaming for $150,000 at the top are now desperately waiting for $40,000. X is flooded with targets of $50,000, $45,000, $42,000 and $38,000. Retail is once again standing on one side of the boat, convinced the market owes them the perfect entry.
Front-Running the Herd
Since I announced the 50-40k region as my deeper bear-market target, most of crypto X has copied the same narrative. They copied everything, The market is not blind. The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below $50,000. They know people are terrified to buy at $64,000 because they have convinced themselves they will receive Bitcoin at $40,000. I am not going to stand behind the herd and beg the market for the same price as everyone else. I am front-running them. And the next that is following is also going to increase the price and so on, and the chain will be continued and those who are waiting for lower can stay there waiting forever.
Just because the four-year cycle worked at the top does not mean it will work at the bottom. Right now, everyone is waiting for September or October as if the market has already programmed the bottom into the calendar. Do you understand how insane that is? Ask anyone when they plan to buy and they will tell you September or October. Ask them why and they will repeat the same answer: because of the four-year cycle. That is the 1+1 herd behavior. What if the real cycle is not exactly four years? What if it is three years and nine or ten months? What if the market bottoms before the date the entire crowd is waiting for? Bulls are waiting, bears are waiting, and everyone is using the same indicator to justify the same timing. That alone shold cause panic to all waiting for the 4 years cycle to happen. Markets do not reward the masses for memorizing a calendar. I am betting against the four-year-cycle bottom. It is not happening. The bottom comes earlier.
The Structural Shift Around Bitcoin
The deeper reason for the change is not technical. It is structural. The environment around Bitcoin is shifting at a speed most people still do not understand. Regulatory clarity, tokenization infrastructure and institutional adoption are all moving forward at the same time, and the legal framework being built right now has the potential to unlock trillions of dollars of institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines or parked in the stock market waiting for certainty. Combine that with Coinbase's institutional buildout and BlackRock's fully operational ETF ecosystem, and we are no longer looking at the same Bitcoin market that existed six months ago. The CLARITY Act could go through on August 10 depending on the Senate, and that is not a small event. There is a reason the entire world is now racing to regulate crypto with full speed.
BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the New York Stock Exchange are already inside the DTCC live tokenization pilot. Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ and US Treasuries are being tested as tokenized securities right now, with the official launch planned for October. Stocks, ETFs and Treasuries are moving on-chain, and the largest institutions in the world are adopting blockchain rails while retail is still debating whether the bear market is over. On top of that, Citadel just invested $400 million directly into https://t.co/R0aEy9w9Rx at a $20 billion valuation. The biggest players are deploying capital now, at scale, before the crowd understands what is happening. The infrastructure is being built directly in front of everyone, and I move my capital when the biggest capital in the world starts moving, not after
In Regards of the Stock Market Crash:
I am keeping every single SP500 short open. Bitcoin and the stock market are not the same trade, and they are not at the same point in their cycle. The crypto bear market began in October 2025 and continued for nine months while the stock market refused to fall. Bitcoin dropped 52% from 125k to 60k. In the same window the SP500 made new all-time highs. Crypto has already been repriced while stocks remain over valued. Therefore there is a very high probability that the Crypto Market will benefit from a Stock Market crash, as profits will move from over valued assets into under valued assets, and in times of Tokenization Hype, Stablecoin talk and the Clarity Act, these funds will very likely move into the Crypto Market.
One More Thing: I called 40-50k as the target and I was clear about it, I called 60k when Bitcoin was at 120k, and at 60k I said 40-50k is coming, But when the entire crowd on X starts waiting for the exact same level, the market almost never delivers it. Six months ago nobody was calling for sub-50k. Today every single account is. That is exactly when the target gets taken off the table. I now believe we will not see 40-50k at all this cycle. The setup that would have delivered that level is dissolving in front of the tokenization revolution, the CLARITY Act, and the biggest capital in the world moving in. Changing my view when the facts change is what a good trader should do. It is exactly why I made massive profits shorting from 120k, and it is why I am accumulating now while others are still waiting for a bottom that will not come the way they want it.
That is why I am buying now. The crowd has become aggressively bearish and the conditions required for a much deeper collapse are beginning to weaken in front of the regulatory and tokenization revolution. I would rather begin building a position before the crowd understands the shift than chase Bitcoin after confirmation at much higher prices. Buy earlier before the mass starts to understand.
This is how I think about hype cycles in markets. It is basic, but that’s the point (frameworks shouldn’t be overly complex, I think).
Investors are always either discounting the promise of the future or the reality of the present. And they are never equally weighting them.
During the early part of a hype cycle, leading up to and directly following a technological advancement, investors are typically discounting the future while focusing on the present. A good example for this is Nvidia at the end of 2022: investors were solely focused on the headwinds presented by the crypto GPU glut, the anemic gaming PC market and the recent rise in rates causing fears about a near term recession.
Then, as the cycle begins, investors begin to shift to incorporate the future - they stop focusing so much on the present and see the promise. They move out in terms of valuing away from last twelve months current price / current earnings to next twelve months. Then, as price climbs and the technology becomes more exciting, their imagination takes hold. At a certain point they begin discounting the present much more heavily and the future becomes the only thing that matters. Valuation metrics over the next twelve months become useless in favor of 2, 3 or 5 years forward.
At the peak, the present is not considered at all, it is 100% driven by an imagined future (even when that imagination doesn’t necessarily align with a bullish outcome for the stocks driving the rally). Analysts aggressively raise estimates in ways that, at the time, seem fundamentally justifiable (if you take the assumptions at face value - for example, “everyone in the world will have two cell phones” was a good one from the mobile phone hype cycle). Capital is sucked in which ultimately forces performance chasing and crowds stocks with money that doesn’t really believe in the thesis. “A twilight period where people continue to play the game, but no longer believe in the rules” emerges, as Soros put it.
The valuation of SaaS stocks in mid-2021 is a great example of what happens when the future is overvalued relative to the present - nobody cared about climbing inflation, that rates had nowhere to go but up, that these companies were reliant on ZIRP or that software could become more competitive.
Then, a negative catalyst occurs - this can but doesn’t have to be related to the technology, macro, credit, underwhelming earnings. The estimates start to seem unattainable, and the present begins to matter more when the future seems more uncertain. That exact mechanism that drove future optimism to unsustainable heights mechanically reverses, everyone needs out. The future begins to be discounted until it results in a sense of disillusionment with not just the stocks but the technology itself. This overshoots to the downside, investors eventually become disillusioned and seemingly allergic to anything having to do with the technology. This happens in a very asymmetric manner to the climb (“stairs up, elevator down”).
This is the crucible in markets for truly transformative tech. If advancements persist, another opportunity to get long presents itself before capital once again begins flowing into the companies (the internet, for example). If they don’t - not necessarily “the tech goes away” but rather that it ceases to advance once the capital isn’t free or plateaus or the economics prove to be unfavorable - the cycle will still start again, just with a new technology.
Or maybe not…maybe this time is different.
Want money, security, & a predictable life?
Get a job.
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None are wrong.
Just know what game you’re playing.
@TheMarketRaven This one hit. Every alert-spammer profits when we overtrade; you're the only one telling us to trade LESS. 90 mins and done, 20 names max changed how I operate. Retail needed this wake-up. 🐦⬛
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