SPACEX JOINS U.S. MEGA-CAP RANKING
At a valuation of $2.12 trillion, SpaceX would rank among the largest U.S. companies:
🔸 Nvidia — $4.96T
🔸 Alphabet — $4.40T
🔸 Apple — $4.29T
🔸 Microsoft — $2.88T
🔸 Amazon — $2.54T
🔸 SpaceX — $2.12T
🔸 Broadcom — $1.80T
🔸 Meta — $1.44T
🔸 Tesla — $1.22T
🔸 Micron — $1.11T
$SPCX - SPACEX IPO: THE BIGGEST BET IN MARKET HISTORY
SpaceX is really three businesses under one stock:
Starlink is the profit engine, generating $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating profit in 2025. Subscribers grew from 2.3M in 2023 to over 10M by early 2026.
SpaceX Launches generated $4.1B in revenue but lost money due to massive investment in Starship, the rocket intended to dramatically lower launch costs.
AI (xAI + X) generated $3.2B in revenue but lost $6.4B in 2025, consuming all of Starlink's profits and more.
Without AI, SpaceX was profitable. With AI, it lost nearly $5B in 2025 and another $4.3B in Q1 2026 alone.
The IPO values SpaceX at $1.77 trillion, but only 4.3% of shares will trade initially. That limited float could drive strong early demand and volatility while making true price discovery difficult.
Retail investors are getting access to just 1.3% of the company, while insiders and major funds remain largely locked up. Those restrictions begin easing within months, potentially increasing selling pressure.
SpaceX will not immediately join the S&P 500, as it currently fails key inclusion requirements, delaying an estimated $14B of passive index-fund buying.
The biggest risk is valuation. At roughly 90x sales, SpaceX is trading at a premium far above the largest technology companies. Historical IPO research shows that highly valued, low-float, unprofitable IPOs often deliver strong first-day gains but weaker long-term returns.
The bullish case is simple: SpaceX dominates satellite internet and commercial launches, and Starship could reshape the economics of space. The bearish case is that investors are paying an unprecedented price today for profits that may arrive years from now.
Bottom line: SpaceX may become one of the most important companies of the century. But this IPO looks designed to maximize demand in the short term, while much of the future selling pressure arrives later. For retail investors, the excitement is obvious—the risk is whether today's valuation already prices in most of the future success.
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