The SwingTrading Guy

Banker 💼 | Financial Planner 📈 | Swing Trader 🔄 | CMT Level 3 Cleared | Tweets are not reco's !!

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

Thanks to FCNR(B) deposit problem is cleared to an extent but these are like bulk deposit rates shrinks margins!!

#banknifty #hdfcbank #nbfc

[Aequitas Investments @AequitasL]

For the past two years, patience itself was an investment decision. As we begin re-entering Indian equities, our approach remains the same – selective, gradual and grounded in valuation discipline.
• What changed enough for us to re-enter?
• Why are we still cautious, not bullish?
• What are we looking for before deploying capital?

Our latest note from the House of Aequitas explores exactly that:
📄Re-entering Indian Equities: Selectively, Gradually, With Valuation Discipline

We are investing again — but with the same valuation discipline that led us to step away in the first place.

To get Aequitas insights on the go, download Aequitas Lens – The App. https://t.co/YsadIGj8Ff

#StayInformedStayAhead
#ValueInvesting #AequitasInvestments

[Muthukrishnan Dhandapani @dmuthuk]

Yesterday I tweeted about why the price we pay, the valuations at which we buy, matters so much.

A move from 10 PE to 100 PE can multiply wealth 10x.

A move from 100 PE to 10 PE can wipe out 90% of your capital.

I said this applies to quality companies as well.

Nike, a quality company, has fallen about 80% from its all time high.

If you bought at the top, most of that capital would have been wiped out by now.

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

Long gravita

1644

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

Balaji amines

Great relative strength in these market conditions

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

6. JINDRILL

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

Setups worth tracking(September)

1. Arvind

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

5. Manorama

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

2. EMMVEE

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

🔥 H-Acid → Bodal / AksharChem / Kiri 📷 TDI → GNFC 📷 Battery Electrolytes → Neogen 📷 Carbon Black → PCBL 📷 Battery Solvents → Balaji Amines ⭐⭐

[Sachin Mishra @SSachinKMishra]

🧪 GLOBAL CHEMICAL CYCLE — ARE WE AT THE BEGINNING OF A TURN? 🔥

Middle East supply disruption + shipping bottlenecks + capacity shutdowns + buyers looking for alternative suppliers = a potential reset in global chemical trade.

The Middle East is a major global petrochemical export hub. Current disruptions around Hormuz/Red Sea have already restricted normal flows, increased freight/logistics complexity and tightened availability in several products.

SABIC itself reported 41% lower sales volumes YoY but 39% higher average selling prices in Q2 amid war-related supply-chain disruption.

Earlier this year, disruption to Middle Eastern petrochemical flows pushed some plastic prices to four-year highs, with the region accounting for more than 40% of global polyethylene exports in 2025.

🔥 Chemicals showing strong signals

1️⃣ H-ACID — Sharp price-cycle reversal

Recent industry reports indicate a sharp H-Acid price increase after prolonged weakness.

Indian listed exposure:

👉 Bodal Chemicals
👉 AksharChem India
👉 Kiri Industries

Watch: price sustainability + utilization + downstream reactive-dye pricing.

---

2️⃣ TDI / MDI — GLOBAL SUPPLY TIGHTENING

Global producers have announced price increases amid plant shutdowns, maintenance and capacity rationalisation.

For India:

🔥 GNFC = clearest listed domestic TDI manufacturing exposure

MDI has an attractive global setup too, but India currently lacks an equally clean listed domestic manufacturing proxy.

---

3️⃣ CARBON BLACK — PRICING POWER RETURNING

Global carbon-black producers have announced price increases as feedstock and operating costs rise.

But the bigger opportunity may be in:

Specialty Carbon Black → Conductive Carbon → Battery Materials

Indian beneficiaries:

👉 Himadri Speciality Chemical
👉 PCBL Chemical

---

4️⃣ BATTERY CHEMICALS — STRUCTURAL DEMAND, NOT JUST A CYCLE 🔋

This could become much bigger.

India's ₹18,100 Cr ACC Battery PLI targets 50 GWh domestic capacity, while companies outside the scheme have announced another ~178 GWh over the coming five years.

That creates demand for:

Electrolytes
Lithium salts
Additives
Cathode materials
Anode materials
Battery solvents

Companies to research:

🔥 Neogen Chemicals
🔥 Balaji Amines

---

5️⃣ ACETYL / SPECIALTY INTERMEDIATES

Watch:

👉 Jubilant Ingrevia
👉 Laxmi Organic

As global producers rationalise capacity, India's integrated specialty manufacturers can potentially gain through import substitution + exports + better utilization.

---

🇮🇳 AND NOW INDIA HAS A POLICY TRIGGER

The Government has approved the BHAVYA Rasayan Scheme.

💰 ₹3,030 Cr outlay
🏭 3 dedicated Chemical Parks
💰 Up to ₹1,000 Cr Central grant per park
⏳ FY27–FY31 implementation.

The objective is important:

Integrated infrastructure + lower logistics/manufacturing costs + import substitution + globally competitive Indian chemical clusters.

Meanwhile, the government has opened bidding for the remaining 10 GWh of ACC manufacturing capacity specifically for grid-scale storage.

🎯 THIS IS THE REAL THESIS

Don't simply buy a stock because “chemical prices are rising.”

Find the intersection of:

GLOBAL SUPPLY EXIT
+
DEMAND RECOVERY / STRUCTURAL GROWTH
+
PRICE HIKE
+
INDIA IMPORT SUBSTITUTION
+
NEW DOMESTIC CAPACITY
+
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

= 🔥 POTENTIAL CHEMICAL CYCLE WINNERS

My current research radar:

🔥 H-Acid → Bodal / AksharChem / Kiri
🔥 TDI → GNFC
🔥 Specialty Carbon → Himadri
🔥 Battery Electrolytes → Neogen
⭐ Carbon Black → PCBL
⭐ Acetyl Chain → Jubilant Ingrevia / Laxmi Organic
⭐ Battery Solvents → Balaji Amines

The opportunity isn't “chemicals are back.”

👉 The opportunity is identifying which molecule turns first — and which Indian producer has spare capacity when prices turn.

That is where operating leverage can become explosive. 🔥

Research thesis only. Not investment advice.

@caniravkaria
@vivbajaj
@sunilgurjar01
@drprashantmish6
@iamrakeshbansal
@suryachaudhary1
@LuckyInvest_ARK

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

@Sharad9Dubey Woww... what a fantastic call!

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

@Sharad9Dubey Slow down is also due to increase in prices of smart phone due to DRAM...apart from battery newly released phones has compromise on specs. AI second order effects

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

SKIPPER: CO WINS ORDER WORTH RUPEES 1305 CR || CO'S M.CAP IS 6800 CR

[The SwingTrading Guy @TradeJotter]

Kalyan Jewelers!

[Patterns @Patterns0001]

FUN FACT: Coal India is now trading at the same price it was trading at 16 years ago

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

While demand for copper is set to explode over the coming years... supply is set to decline.

We are barely making any new discoveries.

And the time from exploration to first production has risen to ~20 years.

There is no quick fix for the coming copper supply shortfall.

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 CRYPTO VOLATILITY IS EXTREME RIGHT NOW.

In a matter of just a few minutes, $BTC dropped 2.85%, $ETH fell 5.72%, and $XRP plunged a staggering 21%.

We haven’t seen volatility like this since October 2025.

The crypto market is moving at lightning speed right now.

[Katusa Research @KatusaResearch]

Smelters are PAYING copper miners

Get this…

Most mines never sell finished copper.

They sell concentrate, a powder about one-quarter copper, and smelters charge a fee to turn it into metal.

That fee is a live reading on how much mine supply exists. Plenty of concentrate, high fee.

Scarce concentrate, and smelters cut their price to win every tonne.

In 2015, the benchmark fee sat at $107 a tonne.

By 2024, it had fallen to $80,

And last year it hit $21.

This year it hit zero, the LOWEST on record.

And in the spot market the fee has gone negative:

Meaning, some smelters now pay miners just to keep their furnaces fed.

By June, the spot fee sat at negative $127 a tonne.