Market update video just posted! Not a ton has changed since my last video, but I thought since it's been a couple months I'd do a refresher.
https://t.co/ymD0rm2Iln
Lots of weekly timeframe bullish divergence in the crypto market! If you haven't been dollar cost averaging into your favorite long term holds, I'd say it's a great time to do so. This is the time where you can stack up cheap and then just chill during the upswing with a great average price.
Just longed CRV seeing as it made fresh lows, this is the exact same setup as my previous long that got stopped at breakeven so just a reentry at a better price. I still maintain my bearish stance on Bitcoin until it reclaims some bullish structure but as I've covered BTC Dominance was expected to tank and it has now started tanking so there's some hope for alt relief.
Decent reaction so far on the CRV long, this will make 5 weekly swing failure patterns down here if this holds up on close. Clearly there's a lot of demand down here to get this many swing failures on the weekly.
Just longed CRV seeing as it made fresh lows, this is the exact same setup as my previous long that got stopped at breakeven so just a reentry at a better price. I still maintain my bearish stance on Bitcoin until it reclaims some bullish structure but as I've covered BTC Dominance was expected to tank and it has now started tanking so there's some hope for alt relief.
@zipe888 Because we have different strategies, go ahead and do whatever your strat says but I don't even use volume as any part of mine and this is not a 4 hour tf trade, much htf.
I want to stay forever with a temporary break when I have kids for schooling them in New Zealand or the US (I am a dual citizen). Generally, it is very safe as long as you don't make yourself an obvious target. There's a reason every well known person in the Philippines goes everywhere with a whole motorcade of security. I can't give up my daily skimboarding/surfing here and California is ultra ultra expensive so not going to be an option if I want to live on the beach.
Market update video just posted! Not a ton has changed since my last video, but I thought since it's been a couple months I'd do a refresher.
https://t.co/ymD0rm2Iln
There's a new level to hold this ltf downtrend now that there's more follow through. Still tracking the same downtrend here while we sit in htf bearish structure as well. No reason to look for upside unless at least the ltf downtrend breaks bullish.
Just like on Bitcoins move up with the ltf uptrend we can now follow the ltf local downtrend here. Unless it changes the structure on close at the current marked level we maintain the local downtrend.
There's a super unfortunate reason why we aren't doing life updates anymore for our own safety. Our expat friends here were murdered over a relatively small amount of money due to local Filipinos knowing them and luring them only to end up as an ambush and robbery turned double homicide. My wife and I don't want to become targets so that's why we stay private now. It sucks!
Others maintain strength while Bitcoin broke down from its ltf uptrend. Bitcoin dominance also keeps dropping the last 4 weeks and looks like the bearish weekly structure may be ready to continue down. Interesting developments on both htf and ltf charts with altcoins holding htf bullish structure. I think there's something brewing and altcoins should not be written off. It's been a weird and difficult market for altcoins the last few years, but when people lose hope is when the next run begins.
In my previous post I mentioned how total3 and others interestingly maintain their htf bullish structure unlike Bitcoin which might point to something more bullish brewing than meets the eye if just covering Bitcoin alone. Some additional things marked in my charts like hidden bull div, and oversold resets also signal the potential for some unexpected bullish action with altcoins. Something else that supports this possibility is the Bitcoin dominance chart which is also set up perfectly to continue down on high timeframes. When these charts both line up like this it's certainly worth taking a look and considering a more bullish view.
Just like on Bitcoins move up with the ltf uptrend we can now follow the ltf local downtrend here. Unless it changes the structure on close at the current marked level we maintain the local downtrend.
Not a great look for Bitcoin losing the ltf uptrend this pullback had formed. It's even worse that we sit in bearish structure on most timeframes. I'd be very careful here and not surprised if this begins a move back to $60k lows.
As Bitcoin has spent quite a while moving up now, I see the sentiment for a bear market bottom being in gaining traction. There's definitely not enough strong evidence to make that call yet imo. The most important level bulls need to take out and close over to make that call with any level of confidence is marked, this level is so significant because it holds the daily, 3 day, and weekly bearish structure intact. Without this level being taken out first or this bear market stretching out to a more normal duration based on the past cycles it is hard to make an educated call for a bottom being in. That being said there's a different more bullish story being told with the structure on the total3 and others charts which might be hinting at a different more bullish path for this bear market compared to previous times. I'm ready for a change in cycle behavior if that's what we get this time.
In my previous post I mentioned how total3 and others interestingly maintain their htf bullish structure unlike Bitcoin which might point to something more bullish brewing than meets the eye if just covering Bitcoin alone. Some additional things marked in my charts like hidden bull div, and oversold resets also signal the potential for some unexpected bullish action with altcoins. Something else that supports this possibility is the Bitcoin dominance chart which is also set up perfectly to continue down on high timeframes. When these charts both line up like this it's certainly worth taking a look and considering a more bullish view.
@Lucifer1072 I personally don't think it takes 0.18 but of course I can always be wrong. I think with the way things are looking a lot of alts are forming major bottoms and could take off at any point in the coming weeks/months
Yea going based on market structure it's objectively bearish on most important timeframes. That doesn't mean market structure can't fail and flip bullish at any point but it certainly hasn't happened yet so let's not get too hyped up prematurely. It would be a welcomed surprise to just rip straight back into full bull mode but I wouldn't put all my money on it yet.
As Bitcoin has spent quite a while moving up now, I see the sentiment for a bear market bottom being in gaining traction. There's definitely not enough strong evidence to make that call yet imo. The most important level bulls need to take out and close over to make that call with any level of confidence is marked, this level is so significant because it holds the daily, 3 day, and weekly bearish structure intact. Without this level being taken out first or this bear market stretching out to a more normal duration based on the past cycles it is hard to make an educated call for a bottom being in. That being said there's a different more bullish story being told with the structure on the total3 and others charts which might be hinting at a different more bullish path for this bear market compared to previous times. I'm ready for a change in cycle behavior if that's what we get this time.