$SPY
This is looking like Déjà vu 👀
SPY closed this week at 672.38, below the 21 EMA (677) on the weekly chart.
A similar setup to the week of March 3, 2025 when price closed at 575.92 beneath its 21 EMA (589).
That breakdown led to further selling.
History rhyming?
👀 #SPY #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis
Markets at a crossroads ahead of the Fed
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat. September CPI rose 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August and hotter than the 3.6% economists expected, with gas and fuel oil explaining the headline jump.
That has the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting in focus, where policymakers will decide whether to hike again to 4.00–4.25% or hold at the current 3.75–4.00%.
The charts show markets bracing for it.
$SPY ($760) has slipped below its 8, 21 and 50-day EMAs and is sitting right on support around $759–762, about 3% off its $781 high.
$QQQ looks weaker: it’s broken its rising trendline from the April low and is testing $703–706 support, with tech leading the selling. VIX has jumped from the mid-teens to 19.5, still far below March’s 35 spike but clearly waking up.
The dollar ($UUP) is grinding near its highs above all its moving averages, and gold has been the casualty.
$GLD is down nearly 30% from its $510 blow-off peak and leaning on $363–373 support.
Long bonds are the wildcard: $TLT has bounced sharply off October’s $76 low but is still stuck under its 100 and 200-day EMAs.
The setup is simple: if SPY’s $759 and QQQ’s $703 levels hold through the Fed, this is a routine pullback. If they break, the 100-day EMA ($755 SPY) and the 200-day ($731 SPY, $684 QQQ) come into play.
Proud dad moment tonight. 🏈
My son came up with not one but two pick-sixes in tonight's game.
Two times he read the quarterback, jumped the route, and took it all the way back. I'm not sure my heart has recovered yet.
What makes it even sweeter is watching him finally find his spot on this team.
He's put in the work, stayed patient, and kept showing up, and tonight it all paid off under the lights.
At 15, he's 6'3" and running a 4.9 forty, and he's still growing into himself.
This is just the beginning, and I couldn't be prouder to be his dad.
Keep working, son. The best is yet to come.