You don't need to catch the whole move.
I try to take a defined piece out of the middle, with the same rules. The traders who need the top AND the bottom donate to the ones who don't.
$SPY Game Plan, Monday, Aug 10
A break below the put wall at 767 is what opens it up; until then the call wall at 780 caps the upside. Flip sits at 775. The 5-point expected move frames how far a clean break should carry. The play I'm watching: SPY Aug 11 773C or 772P works. This vol zone is where my numbers run thin, so I'm sized down and picky today. And with dealers pinning this range, I'd rather trade the edges of the box than chase the middle.
$SPY Game Plan, Friday, Aug 7
LEVELS
Support: 771, 769.6, 767.3, 766.1
Resistance: 772.5, 775.1, 776.7, 778.3
Dealer levels: put wall 758, gamma flip 775, call wall 775
THE PLAN
A break below the put wall at 758 is what opens it up; until then the call wall at 775 caps the upside. The 6-point expected move frames how far a clean break should carry. The play I'm watching: SPY 772C
Or 771P if it gives way.
TRADE PLAN for Thursday Aug 6th
$SPY 767.3 is the line to defend, 778.3 the next test above; walls 762 and 775. Options pricing a 0.6% move by Aug 6. Calls on a clean push through the upside, puts if the lower line goes. Nothing new until one of them actually breaks
SPY and $QQQ are positive gamma into tomorrow, so rips there tend to get faded
$NVDA (+3.4%) and $AAPL (+0.5%) lead my list into tomorrow. A gap up that takes out the opening-range high in the first 90 minutes is the buy, same-week call near the money, $LLY and $ALNY closed strong off the multi-day rotation list, strength that holds gets this-week calls
See you tomorrow!
TRADE PLAN for Tuesday Aug 4th
$SPY And $QQQ are positive gamma into tomorrow, so rips there tend to get faded and I keep those trades on a shorter leash.
$ORCL (+9.2%) and $META (+6.0%) lead my list into tomorrow. A gap up that takes out the opening-range high in the first 90 minutes is the buy, same-week call near the money. $ARES and $ALNY closed strong off the multi-day rotation list, strength that holds gets this-week calls, half off at the first push, the rest rides. Index side stays SPY and QQQ, momentum after the open decides, nothing pre-committed.
Good luck tomorrow.
TRADE PLAN for Monday Aug 3rd
$SPY closed up 5.34 at 747.03 and reclaimed 741.8. 741.8 is the line to defend, 747.4 the next test above; walls 730 and 749. Options pricing a 0.6% move by Aug 3. Calls on a clean push through the upside, puts if the lower line goes.
This vol zone runs thin for me, so that trade is sized down tomorrow
$AMZN (+15.3%, over 272) and $GOOGL (+6.7%, over 356) went out strong. Both are in play on a new high after the open, liking calls on the first strike over it.
On to tomorrow.