Trades Trending

Equities, futures, currencies & options, focusing on analysis and trading using high probability price action strategies

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Citadel: systematic funds have plenty of firepower left to buy equities and will likely keep doing so if volatility stays subdued ... systematic positioning could max out in September and may be vulnerable to any downside shocks across US equities

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Most of the post Liberation Day gains in the S&P 500 have occurred in US trading hours suggesting a predominantly domestic buy-in to the US story while the RoW sits more on the sidelines

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

As tempting as it is to get swept up in the summer rally and poolside optimism, August has historically been a month of outflows and challenged seasonality. Since 1996, August has seen a median of >10bps of outflows as a total of AUM

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

We may be moving towards later innings of the short covering given the magnitude of these moves.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Big moves in individual stocks are happening at a historically high rate. Chart shows the percent of Russell 3000 stocks that have moved up more than 20% in a single day over the past 252 trading days

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) strategies, which are momentum and trend followers, have plenty of room to add equity exposure. Positioning from this cohort is not stretched and has capacity to add exposure over the next month.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Last week, the Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator, which uses options data to quantify investors’ giddiness, jumped to its highest level since late December.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Japan won’t need to purchase as many Treasuries and other foreign bonds and stocks over the longer term after its trade deal with the US … it’s likely going to result in Japan having a smaller trade surplus with the US … That would mean Japan has less capital to recycle abroad

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Vol moved lower y-day and skew flattened out on the rally. As we break through the highs, the VIX roll down is one of the steepest roll downs we've seen in the last 3-4 yrs.

NDX notched its 62 consecutive day above the 20-dma.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Over past week, flows into U.S. large-cap ETFs soared by nearly $10B ... investment-grade bonds saw largest outflows, followed by U.S. small caps

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Prime book positioning in [Semis] is at the highs (consistent with market sentiment around the group)

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

**Global economies continue to hum**

Major U.S. equity indices ascended to a fresh weekly closing high as signs of economic strength and positive corporate earnings reports overshadowed the increased pressure from....

READ MORE...https://t.co/njTt7leNaq

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Global Industrials stocks saw the largest net buying in over 5 years and 2nd largest on our record. The Prime book is now over-weight Industrials vs. the MSCI World Index by +5.8%, which is hovering 5-year highs in the 99th percentile. (Goldman Sachs)

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Our measure of equity positioning rose again this week to turn overweight for the first time since late February (Deutsche Bank)

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Compared to the long-term z-score fund managers remain very long EUR and utilities. Meanwhile they continue to avoid the USD as well as energy. In commodities we see now a slightly positive positioning.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

$65M Coinbase Sell-Off

Plus, one Congressman exits a key AI name and a fund trims its position in a surging small-cap builder...

READ MORE: https://t.co/wCcezecyZC

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Retail's share of trading volume has gotten back to above 20% recently which it hadn't done outside of immediately after the pandemic and the 2021 meme-stock craze

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

🤝 You’re Not Alone—Learn What Works from 30 Market Pros (July 22-24)

If you’ve ever felt like you’re trading in a vacuum—piecing together strategies, juggling tools, and wondering why your results feel inconsistent—you’re not alone.

https://t.co/r0qYLz6yHL

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

OPEX

With recent quad-witching opex events still fresh in mind, today’s $2.8 trillion option expiration — made up of $1.5 trillion in SPX options and around $660 billion in single stock options — is shaping up to be fairly uneventful.

[Trades Trending @Trade_Seasonals]

Since 1990, the S&P 500 was higher a year after an all-time high 82.4% of the time and up a median return of a very impressive 13.5%