Swing_King

High conviction swing trades in high-growth stocks, crypto, and emerging technology ~ Not financial advice, just personal observations

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

When you learn what the magician knows, it’s not magic anymore. 🪄🎩

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

Buy the dip 

[Whale Insider @WhaleInsider]

JUST IN: $193,000,000 worth of long positions liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours.

[Whale Insider @WhaleInsider]

JUST IN: $193,000,000 worth of long positions liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours.

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

@kevinxu Accurate.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️The marginal Fed hike looks like a mistake.

The problem is that the transmission mechanism has become badly mismatched to the economy.

The biggest new source of investment demand, AI, compute, power, data centers, chips, transmission, is strategically compelled. The expected payoff is so large that a few hundred basis points of financing cost does not shut it down. The hyperscalers keep building.

Meanwhile the sectors that are exquisitely sensitive to rates get crushed first.

Housing.

Commercial real estate.

Small business.

Startups.

Leveraged companies.

Anyone refinancing.

So the Fed can keep raising rates and destroy increasingly large pieces of the ordinary economy while the very investment boom keeping aggregate demand strong continues almost untouched.

That is the fracture.

Then the second-order effects start fighting the Fed.

Higher rates raise Treasury interest payments.

Those payments become income for bondholders, money-market funds, wealthy households, and cash-rich corporations.

Higher rates make new housing and infrastructure more expensive to build.

Higher rates raise the hurdle rate for new power generation, transmission, factories, and other supply-expanding investment.

So the Fed can simultaneously weaken demand in fragile sectors, increase income flowing to capital owners, and make future supply more expensive.

That is a very different economy from the textbook model.

And the energy shock makes the mismatch worse.

If diesel, gasoline, crude, electricity, or other physical inputs are pushing prices higher, rate hikes do not manufacture energy. They mainly destroy enough unrelated demand elsewhere to offset the supply shock.

That is an extraordinarily expensive way to fight inflation.

The deeper danger is this:

AI can keep the economy looking strong long enough for the Fed to overtighten everything outside AI.

That delays the visible break.

GDP holds up.

Capex holds up.

Mega-cap earnings hold up.

The Fed interprets resilience as room to keep tightening.

But underneath the aggregate numbers, housing freezes, credit deteriorates, hiring weakens, refinancing pain compounds, and fiscal interest expense accelerates.

Then eventually the thing breaks somewhere the Fed was not trying to break.

That is the setup.

Ackman’s most important insight is that the economy is no longer responding uniformly to the price of money.

There are now two monetary sensitivities living inside one GDP number.

One side is strategically compelled to spend.

The other side is getting strangled by the cost of capital.

That means the Fed has to apply more pressure to produce the same aggregate slowdown.

More pressure means more collateral damage.

And eventually the policy becomes self-defeating because the sovereign itself starts absorbing more and more of the cost through interest expense.

So the highest-coherence path is:

AI capex stays strong.

The Fed remains tighter than the ordinary economy can comfortably bear.

Housing and credit weaken further.

The fiscal interest burden keeps rising.

Inflation falls more slowly than expected because energy and supply constraints remain alive.

The Fed stays restrictive too long.

Then the deterioration finally becomes broad enough that policy has to reverse harder than it otherwise would have.

That is when real yields roll over and the repression thesis moves from theory toward policy reality.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

https://t.co/vu7R8yuXjD

[Simple Mining @simpleminingio]

Every cycle someone asks what happens to Bitcoin if the biggest exchange goes under.

We have already run this experiment, twice: Mt. Gox in 2014 and FTX in 2022.

Bitcoin's protocol uptime through both: 100%.

The exchange was never the asset.

Hold your own keys.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.

But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.

Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?

And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.

But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?

I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong?

[flyingtulip.com @flyingtulip_]

Introducing ssftUSD, the auto-compounding ftUSD.

Unlike sftUSD, which pays yield in bought back FT, ssftUSD automatically converts its share of the yield into more ftUSD and adds it back to the vault.

As rewards compound over time, each ssftUSD becomes redeemable for more ftUSD.

Links below 👇

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

$NTSK - strong company with a positive change in momentum and fits the up coming cyber security narrative

[Alex Becker 🍊🏆🥇 @ZssBecker]

If you stuck it out through this crypto bear.

Congrats. You deserve more than literally anyone in the history of anything to "make it".

You're a psycho. A fucking psycho.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

HOW I PLAN TO RETIRE EARLY FROM THE AI CYCLE IN 5 YEARS

This is the buildout. KEEP this.

Here’s how I’m positioning:

1. OWN THE COMPUTE

AI Chips: $NVDA $AMD

Foundries / Semi Equipment: $ASML $AMAT

Memory / HBM: $MU $SNDK

Networking / Connectivity: $CRDO $ALAB

Photonics / Optics: $LITE $AAOI

Edge AI: $QCOM $ARM

2. OWN THE INFRASTRUCTURE

Data Centers / AI Compute: $IREN $CIFR

Cooling / Thermal: $VRT

Servers / Hardware: $SMCI $DELL $HPE

Storage: $PSTG

GPU Cloud: $CRWV $NBIS

Digital Infrastructure: $EQIX

Cybersecurity: $CRWD $FTNT

3. OWN THE POWER

Grid Infrastructure: $PWR

Electrical Equipment: $NVT

Power Producers: $NEE

Gas / Turbines: $GEV

On-Site / Backup Power: $BE

Energy Storage: $EOSE

Nuclear: $OKLO

Uranium / Nuclear Fuel: $UUUU $CCJ

4. OWN THE RAW MATERIALS

Copper: $FCX

Critical Minerals: $ALB

Rare Earths: $MP

5. OWN THE PHYSICAL AI REVOLUTION

AI Applications: $PLTR $NOW

Robotics: $TSLA $SYM

Industrial Automation: $DE

Autonomy: $ACHR $JOBY

Drones: $AVAV $ONDS

Defense Tech: $KTOS

Space: $RKLB $ASTS

Quantum: $IONQ

AI Healthcare / Biotech: $TEM

Most people will chase whatever is already moving.

We will be positioning around what AI will require next.

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

Time for ripple:native to pop off

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

@coinbureau 420…. Sweet

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

@Stat_Cult Colombia in Miami 🤔

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

@Lara_0xo What is going on in India??

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

@PeterSchiff Haters gonna hate

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Let’s raise rates and then inject free money into the system a few days later.

What a complete cluster.

What’s the point in hiking rates if you’re just going to keep printing money?

Complete clown show.

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

Sell the gold, buy the BTC.

Price at screenshot :

1 Bitcoin: $76,500 (17.6x)
1 troy ounce of gold: $4,300

[Swing_King @Trade_Thesis]

Only one thing happens after this, it goes up

$MSTR

[Cup @cryptocupra]

EVERYTHING IS PLAYING OUT EXACTLY AS I TOLD YOU.

I CALLED $58,000 THE BOTTOM.

BITCOIN ALREADY RIPPED TO $81,000 SINCE THEN.

THAT’S NEARLY +40% WHILE EVERYONE ELSE WAS STILL SCREAMING BEAR MARKET.

I CALLED THE $16K BOTTOM.
I CALLED THE $126K TOP.
I CALLED $58K.

NOW I’M TELLING YOU THE NEXT MOVE WILL MAKE +40% LOOK SMALL.

THE PARABOLIC PHASE IS STILL AHEAD.

MISS MY NEXT CALL AND YOU’LL BE WATCHING FROM THE SIDELINES AGAIN.

TURN NOTIFICATIONS ON.