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Futures & Options trader. Daily pre-market trade plans built on market profile, orderflow & institutional macro → Substack: Trader Alpha. Not advice.

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Built a Sierra Chart indicator that fixes the 3 problems every large-print study has:

→ Bubbles at actual execution price, not bar high
→ Fixed threshold sizing, consistent every day
→ 500ms aggregation filters algo order-splitting

Bonus: Large Print Net Delta line with Globex session support.
Free for Substack subscribers. https://t.co/Oj7nyXAMC6

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Big short movie in 2026 🤣

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/v50tNp0LVD

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$SPCX $SPY $QQQ Hypo 11th June:
Overnight traded mostly above the prior settle 29464, so the counter-auction is short. We open near the highs but inside the prior range, and there's a prior-day spike in play too, so spike rules apply alongside the balanced guidelines. Watch whether that overnight strength holds or gets faded straight back into value.
Macro backdrop is a serious relief rally after the Iran de-escalation headlines, with positioning already coiled into it. US tactical positioning had dipped below -2z this week and the high beta momentum basket ripped 7.86%, its best day since March 2021, but the combined positioning and performance score still isn't at levels that have marked durable lows before. Today's SPACEX IPO adds another wrinkle, with some of the recent flow pulled from other names to fund allocation into it. AI infrastructure names remain the standout of the squeeze, trading at the richest multiple since the ChatGPT launch even as software sits near half its prior peak.
Fading the overnight strength back into value, or trusting the spike and waiting for continuation?
Full Hypo, ES & NQ Key Levels and Macro on Substack. Link in reply ↓

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

🇺🇸 US sells $22B in 30-Year Bond Auction 📊

📈 High Yield: 5.020% (prev 5.046%, six-auction avg 4.835%)
📉 Tail: +1.2bps (prev +0.5bps, six-auction avg -0.2bps)
✅ Bid to Cover: 2.33x (prev 2.30x, six-auction avg 2.41x)

🏦 Primary Dealers: 14.7% (prev 11.7%, six-auction avg10.7%)
🎯 Direct Bidders: 25.3% (prev 21.7%, six-auction avg 22.6%)
🌍 Indirect Bidders: 59.95% (prev 66.6%, six-auction avg 66.7%)

Tail widened to 1.2bps, well above the six-auction average. Indirects dropped sharply from 66.6% to 59.95%, dealers had to absorb well above their average. Directs held up but couldn't offset the foreign demand weakness. Weak auction.

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/Ddtekcpqk3

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$QQQ $SPY Hypo 11th June:
Overnight traded mostly above prior settle, counter-auction is short. Balanced guidelines apply. Two live wires today: negative dealer gamma at a six-month extreme and ORCL cloud miss adding pressure on semis at the open.
ECB decision at 8:15 am ET: 25 bp hike delivered. PPI came in hot (+1.1% m/m, +6.5% y/y), goods-led. Goldman's short and medium-trend CTA signals are both at multi-month lows. Thin liquidity, wide ranges likely.
C/a lower or waiting for the gamma-driven flush first?
Free read today, link in reply ↓

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

🇺🇸 US sells $39B in 10-Year Note auction 📊

📈 High Yield: 4.538% (prev 4.468%, 6-auction avg 4.232%)
📉 Tail: -0.1bps (prev +0.4bps, six-auction avg +0.6bps)
✅ Bid to Cover: 2.57x (prev 2.40x, six-auction avg 2.44x)

🏦 Primary Dealers: 9.5% (prev 12.0%, six-auction avg 11.4%)
🎯 Direct Bidders: 12.3% (prev 24.1%, six-auction avg 21.1%)
🌍 Indirect Bidders: 78.2% (prev 64.0%, six-auction avg 67.6%)

Stopped through. Indirects surged to 78.2%, well above their average, dealers took the least in months. Strong auction

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/BCxLC1zaPZ

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$QQQ $SPY Hypo 10th June:
Market traded entirely below prior settle 29117 overnight, counter-auction is long. We open inside range, balanced day guidelines apply. CPI came in softer than expected at 0.2% core m/m, but headline is 4.2% Y/Y, and the structure coming into this print was fragile.
Gross leverage near the 99th percentile, CTA equity positioning at peaks, and options pricing the highest 0DTE straddle since late 2025. Non-dealer Russell 2k shorts were rebuilding into month-end. Soft print shifts that. $ORCL reports tonight.
Does a soft CPI hold the c/a long, or does the broader positioning fragility cap the rally?
Full Hypo, ES & NQ Key Levels and Macro on Substack. Link in reply ↓

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/LfYwWljSR0

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$QQQ $SPY the
NQ traded mostly above prior settle 29454 overnight, c/a is short. We open inside the prior range, so balanced guidelines apply. Overnight was quiet, but CPI tomorrow at 8:30 am ET is the real session driver.
JPM's desk puts 30% odds on a core print above 0.30% m/m that takes SPX down 75bp-3%. Goldman pushed the last two Fed cuts back to 2027. Core CPI has risen three months straight.
Hot or soft tomorrow. Where's your lean into the number?
Full Hypo, ES & NQ Key Levels and Macro on Substack. Link in reply ↓

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/vVeMVfaiQ6

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$QQQ $SPY Hypo 8th June:
Asia caught down hard overnight. KOSPI circuit-breaker, Nikkei -3.8%. Friday's -5% Nasdaq close was a mechanical cascade, not panic selling. Counter-auction is short; gap guidelines apply at the open.

CPI Wednesday is the session binary this week. Goldman pushed Fed cuts to mid-2027. JPM sees Core CPI at 2.9% Y/Y. A hot print is likely to extend the pullback. Iran/Lebanon escalation resumed over the weekend, with the odds of SoH reopening falling to 29%.

Fading this open or waiting to see if the c/a holds before committing?

Free read today; link in reply ↓

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/tTKZgA4En9

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$QQQ $SPY Hypo 5th June:
Overnight traded entirely below the prior settle 30488, so the counter-auction is long. We open with a small gap, keeping gap guidelines in play. NFP just printed 172k against an 85k consensus, more than double expectations.
Event day. NFP at 08:30 ET. A reaccelerating labour market with unemployment steady at 4.3% sharpens the stakes for CPI on June 10th and the first Warsh FOMC on June 17th. Goldman Prime data shows HFs net short NDX futures while Momentum factor exposure sits at all-time highs. That divergence rarely stays quiet.
Gap-and-go on the c/a, or does the strong NFP print bring bond yields into the picture?
Full Hypo, ES & NQ Key Levels and Macro on Substack. Link in reply ↓

[LuxAlgo @LuxAlgo]

🚨 The S&P just announced they will NOT change eligibility requirements to 'fast track' index inclusion for megacap stocks such as the upcoming SpaceX or Anthropic IPOs.

Looks like $SPCX will just have to settle for joining the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ.

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

Substack: https://t.co/q9Mln1FqaE

[Trader Alpha @TraderAlpha_]

$AVGO $QQQ $SPY Hypo 4th June 2026:
NQ traded entirely below prior settle 30633 overnight, so counter-auction is long. We open with a gap down; gap trading guidelines apply. AVGO's AI chip guide missed the bar on a stock priced for upgrades, pulling semis and the broader AI complex lower.
NFP tomorrow (street 85k). Iran confirmed no progress in talks overnight; Trump floated Labour Day as the blockade timeline. Global oil inventories are tracking toward operational stress levels in June and the floor in September, per JPM commodity data. HF gross leverage hit all-time highs into June with CTAs near max long at the 95th percentile.
Gap-and-go c/a, or does the open get faded back toward prior settle?
Full Hypo, ES & NQ Key Levels and Macro on Substack. Free read today, link in reply ↓