Trader Amir

For the gods perceive things In the future, ordinary people things in the present, but the wise perceive things about to happen

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

I will use statistics and inductive methods to make aggressive bets, but I will not use them to manage my risk and exposure

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@TraderMorin This is the tough part of the game where levels of variance kicks in

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@ExitLiqCapital Ray dallio approves

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@PolishQuant @TheFlowHorse No skin in the game

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@TraderMorin https://t.co/POryKjf1Or

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

bitcoin:native

Aggro shorts piling in late at a swing low being heavily absorbed by passive bids - all that effort with no reward to push further down

Its a range until proven otherwise

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

bitcoin:native

Aggro shorts piling in late at a swing low being heavily absorbed by passive bids - all that effort with no reward to push further down

Its a range until proven otherwise

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

knife catchers on every dip pulling up at coinbase headquarters $btc

[Happy Punch @HappyPunch]

Dustin Poirier got kicked off his flight and tried to fight a cop before getting arrested

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@RobSchneider Working in Hollywood and alienating 2 billion people is certainly a choice

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@Stoiiic Appreciate the insight and response, thank you 🤝

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@Stoiiic I guess in simple terms. discerning between noise and signal

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

Yeah no way around that unfortunately, don't let it discourage these posts I look forward to more.

Taleb has a quote “More data – such as paying attention to the eye colours of the people around when crossing the street – can make you miss the big truck."

Question for you, how do you find the balance of taking in all this information and still being able to execute without missing the " big truck "

[Cred @CryptoCred]

As someone who loves trading technicals

I think learning about markets via technicals (like I did) is one of the worst ways to start

It’s a rigid framework where grown men argue with each other about the exact Japanese name for a specific candlestick or a box they’ve drawn on an arbitrary time frame

It doesn’t teach you the foundations - why markets move, different types of participants, microstructure, order types and their impact, perps vs spot, and all that stuff - market ‘plumbing’ as a category

One of the biggest issues with being hyperfocused on technicals is that they don’t teach you principles and market effects

Most technical setups can be decomposed into broad buckets which are well-established (trend, mean reversion, momentum, order flow / price impact, vol clustering etc.)

A lot of technical analysis is an often unknowing attempt to map those broad market effects into a recognisable pattern

But even a technical-first view is better served by understanding the underlying market effect first and then decomposing it, as opposed to focusing on the specific pattern without ever looking at what’s happening under the hood

“This type of triangle tends to go up” is a lot less useful than “this type of flow tends to resolve higher over N time frame”, even if you use the same triangle to identify it

Another example: if you’re drawing a support level and buying it, you’re assuming some version of buyers being more aggressive than sellers in that area over a given time frame and predicting a higher price as a result - but what does that mean?

Shorts closing / taking profit, allowing for mean reversion? Aggressive sellers being absorbed by passive buyers? Some price insensitive buyer predictably stepping in at a value area? Sellers getting margin called and forcibly trading at bad prices/causing a dislocation? Clustering of orders creating some sort of imbalance? And so on.

There’s definitely a risk of overthinking this stuff, and you can make money from charts alone

But if you haven’t thought about the underlying market effects and ‘plumbing’ for your setups you’ll likely be stuck in rigid pattern matching that doesn’t generalise and isn’t subject to deeper investigation and more nuanced application

Even if your main lens remains TA-focused, there is no harm in understanding the stuff you’re trading on a product level (eg perp contract specs, OI, funding, mark/last/index etc) and on a foundational level (why and how markets move)

Especially now that you can jam this stuff into an LLM and keep saying “dumb it down” until you get it, no excuse not to do your homework

This is something I really wish I did much earlier in my trading life, so hopefully it resonates with a fellow trader stuck in TA psychosis spending his mum’s credit card on a fourth Udemy candlestick course

Anyway GM

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

B Shape + significant volume

Open interest rising, cvd declining

On lower tf price then needs to respect that level

Ideally Spot cvd to then step in with strength

^ tracking this at a key level is important otherwise it’s more noise then it signal.

Prior to this, market regime and context has to be identified to determine whether we are in a

Pro trend vs counter trend environment on the relevant time frames

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@rasmr_eth Nice bots lol

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@docXBT Interesting, appreciate the insight.

Helpful content as always 🤝

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@FabrizioRomano Good signing

They needed someone in the middle who didn’t treat the ball like a grenade

[Trader Amir @TraderAmir_]

@tradermatt Og eps used to be the best

Nowadays they talk about being a comedian as if they work in the underground mines lol

[David Icke @davidicke]

Says the man who funded Trump to the tune of some $300 million to get him elected to trigger the mayhem that now engulfs the world. He's still trying to divide and rule you because that's his job while answering to the very network behind the open border agenda in Europe that has led to horrors in Ireland and elsewhere.
Meanwhile, he directs your attention away from his AI/digital, data centre, hive mind, surveillance, agenda constantly advanced by him and his billionaire mates like Peter Thiel and co. The man's a monumental fraud and he's playing you. So is Robinson, the promotor of the Israeli government - the very people behind the open borders in Europe.