Traders obsess about conceptualizing market behavior into specific setups, therefore, missing the forest for the trees. Leading them to be too rigid, about specific criteria, sabotaging their ability to take advantage of various presentations of specific market behavior.
I say, focus on understanding the components of specific market behavior, not one variation of specific market behavior. One would argue that it decreases the edge of a trader because it is being too broad.
I’d argue otherwise, I’d argue that it allows a trader to understand the market in a deeper, more nuanced way, and express trades when different varieties of the studied market behavior appear.
In a world where traders mostly conceptualize market behavior into specific setup and set of rules, doing the opposite provides a mental-framework type of edge.
I see countless traders sharing about shorting small caps, expressing their trade via the First Red Day setup. I see none sharing about the countless mean-reversion opportunities in larger cap companies.
Why is that I ask? Because there is a lack of understanding the inherent dynamic of upside overextension - a specific market behavior.
Traders fail to acknowledge that a mid/large cap name trending higher for a couple of legs, making a 150% in a month is similar in dynamic to a small-cap pushing higher hundreds of percent in a matter of days. The market behavior is the same, the expression differentiating. Therefore, being too focused on how the market behavior expressed in small-caps leads a trader to miss quality mean-reversion shorts in bigger, liquid names.
That is an insight, seeking to understand a specific market behavior, to see the forest. Instead of seeking to understand one variety of expression of specific market behavior - don’t miss the forest for the trees.
I'm going to be a loud appreciative.
Ever since came across you which was about a year ago, I see every YouTube video you upload and study relentlessly from MO as an Elite member.
I see you as an inspiration and a gold mine; a market wizard putting his heart and soul into creating helpful free and paid content to elevate retail traders.
Anyone who doubts you and has negative comments probably has an internal conflict; can't accept that successful people are willing to give back so openly and willingly.
You're a legend Lance, a great authentic guy, I learn and will continue to learn a ton from you.
Thanks for all you do man.
(Can't wait for the signed copy).
Hi Lukas.
I'm currently trading with same bet sizing for all my trades (not yet consistently profitable).
Let's say I achieved consistent profitability with a specific setup. How would you recommend making the transition to dynamic bet sizing? My thought process is to first of all make sure that I am grading accurately the setups I trade; meaning that my A/A+ actually has higher expectancy than B (not taking C's).
But from that comes another issue, how many data points would be sufficient? i.e let's say 20 data points, considering A+ setups are happening around once or twice a month, it'll take long time to get reliable quantitative prove that I'm grading accurately A+ setups.
So in general, does my thought process makes sense? How would you approach it?
Expecting your Substack writings.
Decent post, I'm not a statistics guy be have a little bit of background.
Your conclusions really connects to my approach following price and volume action as the main tools for managing a position.
One can never know what is the potential of the trade, the only indicators that can get one closer to assess it is following price and volume.
Doing so, can allow to ride the outliers when they arrive.
You are a true inspiration Lance, a legendary trader, sharing endless valuable free content and built an exceptional course which I learn tons from and glad to be a member of its community.
Along all the giving back you do in the trading sphere you're also doing so with @Impact_Comp helping local non-profits.
As a guy who works in a non-profit (until I'll become full-time trader :) ) I know how challenging it can be, facing serious issues with limited resources and how operational efficiency can change things for the better.
So just want to wish you and the student participating best of luck. Thanks for all you do man.
Many know for the last 8 years I’ve been running a non-profit, @Impact_Comp.
We fund competitions at universities and challenge students to help solve the issues facing local non-profits. Winning teams get cash prizes and seed money to implement their ideas and see real change in their communities.
Until you attend one of these competitions, it’s impossible to explain how inspiring and motivating it is to be a part of. These students genuinely care about their communities and helping these orgs.
I jokingly always say that me attending these is like that scene in 22 Jump Street when Channing Tatum goes back to school and it’s suddenly cool to care about the world you.
Yesterday, I was at @UHouston for their 3rd annual competition which sought to help @impacthubHOU.
We all see traders using AI to empower their work, but it’s incredible seeing students using AI to empower positive change.
Nobody knows what the future holds. There will be bumps. But as long as we have our best and brightest students around the world using tech to make the world a better place, I’m bullish on our future ☀️🌎🙏
Care to help out? Spread the good word or simply follow us at @Impact_Comp here or impact_competition on Insta!
Since my day one as a trader I always was attracted to focusing on price and volume action, studying the naunces of the chart through them.
Nowadays, later in my trading journey I find them as the most valuable tools for me as a trader. They are the only indicators on my chart; this allows me to be as attentive as possible to those only leading indicators.
Moreover, time and time again, they appear to be the best way to manage a position. Therefore, I stick to them as my main and almost exclusive way to manage my trades.
Today I had a trade where I override this management rule and found myself leaving 4R on the table but reminding myself the importance and power of following price and volume action.