TraderJane

Swing Trader’s Playbook: Turning Dips into Dollars. Insights, Not Advice. DYOR. I have no courses (nothing) to sell, no Telegram group. I will not DM you first.

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

Someone posted this on X yesterday, this looks great on paper. Below are my and my AI's take.👇

"I’m buying in stages.

Every $5000 that Bitcoin drops, I will add another LEAPS contract. My target is January, 2028.

Strikes of both $200 and $400.

This is where the money is made."

If this scenario plays out like Willy Woo's calls, it'll be catastrophic for LEAPS-heavy portfolios.

🧸 Bear trend likely ends in Q4 → $45k–$54k zone
🧸 $45k = textbook bear market bottom
🧸 Global macro fully breaks?
⚠️ → $30k support
⚠️ → $16k ultimate bull-trend line defense
🐂 Next leg up: Late 2026 / 2027 (assuming no new black swan like country A nukes country B, etc.)

The anti‑LEAPS death strategy

If the above scenario plays out... slow bleed → macro break → late recovery... then the optimal structure is:

A. Reduce LEAPS exposure

Not eliminate — reduce. A healthy range is:

→ 25% LEAPS
→ 75% $IBIT shares

This gives me:

→ Convexity if bitcoin:native surprises to the upside
→ Survivability if bitcoin:native grinds down
→ No theta bleed on the majority of my capital

B. Use LEAPS only at deep discounts

If bitcoin:native hits:

$45k → $IBIT ≈ $25
$30k → $IBIT ≈ $17
$16k → $IBIT ≈ $9

At those levels, LEAPS become asymmetric again.

Buying LEAPS at bitcoin:native $60k–$70k is suicide in the above scenario.

So, the rule becomes:

→ Only buy LEAPS when bitcoin:native is in the capitulation zone*. Not during the slow bleed.

*The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index is one metric I use to get an idea what capitulation looks like. See the latest F&G index (screenshot) at time of posting.

C. Use shares as the “carry vehicle”

Shares don’t decay. Shares don’t care about IV. Shares don’t care about path.

If bitcoin:native goes:

$70k → $45k → $30k → $16k → $100k

Shares survive the entire journey.

LEAPS don’t.

🌟 My take:

→ If no Iran peace deal
→ NACHO → Not a Chance Hormuz Opens
→ global macro fully breaks → $45k → $30k → $16k

NFA. DYOR.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #WillyWoo #Macro

[Ron Shillman @shillman1]

@Nostre_damus

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@21WIRE My guess... after November midterms, boots on the ground. I sincerely hope I am wrong.

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@Ms_Iranian Boo hoo hoo

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@SJosephBurns No, no, no! I will not have a losing trade. Ever.

[Arch Public @tryarchpublic]

Top 10 Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies

1. @Strategy - 845,256
2. @twentyone - 43,514
3. @Metaplanet - 40,177
4.@MARA - 35,303
5. Bitcoin Standard Treasury Co - 30,021
6. @Bullish - 24,300
7. @Strive - 19,032
8.@SpaceX - 18,712
9. @coinbase - 16,492
10. @RiotPlatforms - 15,680

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@TheIranianzg3z What a shock! I thought 40th time is the charm.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

How likely is this scenario? 👀

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@RT_com Monsanto is NOT going to like this, they'll have convinced Trump's USA that this farm is very, very close to having multiple nukes!

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@DougAMacgregor What? I thought the 40th time "we are very, very close to a deal" is the charm, no?

[Andrew @AP_Abacus]

SpaceX holds more Bitcoin on their balance sheet than Coinbase.

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@DougAMacgregor @911NewsBreaks Looks like 🌮 to make Mexico the 52nd or is it the 53rd state now 😆

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@MacroScope17 How high do you think BTC will climb

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@SJosephBurns Hey, what about fake it till you make it? 😆

[David Senra @davidsenra]

.@danawhite says one of the keys to longevity is to block out all negativity:

“There's this Bruce Lee quote where he says, ‘Never say negative things about yourself or what you're working on even if you're joking, because your body doesn't know the difference.’”

“I never take in any negativity.”

“It never even crosses my mind that something's not going to work. I just keep going until it does work.”

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@DougAMacgregor What a shock! https://t.co/sIAa5I8Dtw

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@KobeissiLetter I'd rather trust someone like Bernie Madoff than 🌮 .

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@nicrypto If you still trust Bernie Madoff, then sure. A deal is in the bag, take that to the bank. 🤣

[TraderJane @TraderJane8]

@EricLDaugh Nobel peace prize for this war pig?

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

“Buy the first pullback after a new high, sell the first rally after a new low.” Linda Raschke:

[Coinage ♻️ @coinage_media]

@SeanMFarrell watch our full interview:

https://t.co/7iMqe2r7NS