Smit Shah

📊 Technical Analysis • Price Action • Chart Studies
🎯 Sharing market setups & educational insights
⚠️ Not SEBI Registered • DYOR

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

🎉 Starting this New Year, I'll be sharing my market outlook every night for the next trading day.

Expect my personal analysis, key levels and market insights that you won't usually find in daily financial news.

Stay tuned!

#StockMarket #Nifty

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

India approved a new transmission corridor for renewable power.

The next thing I’m watching is who wins the grid equipment orders. Hitachi Energy India and Siemens Energy India are on my watchlist.

#PowerSector

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Oil tanker rates are roughly half their October peaks. That can make Brazilian and African crude cheaper to bring to India.

I’d watch whether IOC, BPCL and HPCL change where they buy crude and whether cheaper freight improves refining margins.

#Oil

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

India’s life insurers collected ₹42,914 cr in new-business premiums in October, up 26% YoY.

I’d check if SBI Life and HDFC Life are earning more from new policies. A jump in one-time premiums can make the headline look stronger than it is.

#Insurance

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Power Grid raised FY27 capex guidance to ₹37,000–40,000 cr.

For KEC and Kalpataru Projects, I’d watch actual transmission awards and the margins on new work. A bigger order book can still bring in less profit per rupee of sales.

#PowerGrid

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Nifty is starting to show signs of a correction.

Today's opening gap appears to be filled, but another gap remains below.

If selling pressure continues, we could see Nifty move towards 24,300 to fill that gap.

#Nifty50 #StockMarket

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Update on Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar.

The board has approved the sale of its Singapore subsidiary for around ₹60 cr.

This could bring in some much-needed cash, but the bigger question remains. Will it help improve the company's financial position?

#BAJAJHIND

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar’s Q2 revenue fell 16% YoY to ₹968 cr. EBITDA loss narrowed to ₹42.5 cr, while net loss widened to ₹121 cr.

My view: I’d check what drove the wider loss below EBITDA before reading this as a turnaround.

#BajajHind

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

India's inflation data is due tomorrow.

If #CPI comes in higher than expected, my first stock to watch for selling would be #BAJFINANCE.

Higher inflation could keep interest rates elevated, putting pressure on NBFC margins and loan demand.

I'd wait for price confirmation.

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Bajaj Finance could launch its ₹11,700 cr institutional share sale as early as this week.

My view: I’d watch the issue price. A steep discount to the market price could weigh on the stock even as the raise gives it more capital to lend.

#BajajFinance

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Bajaj Finance could launch its ₹11,700 cr institutional share sale as early as this week.

My view: I’d watch the issue price. A steep discount to the market price could weigh on the stock even as the raise gives it more capital to lend.

#BajajFinance

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar’s Q2 revenue fell 16% YoY to ₹968 cr. EBITDA loss narrowed to ₹42.5 cr, while net loss widened to ₹121 cr.

My view: I’d check what drove the wider loss below EBITDA before reading this as a turnaround.

#BajajHind

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Adani plans roughly $120B in capex over five years, with about 70% earmarked for energy.

I’m watching for disclosed cable and grid equipment orders at Polycab, KEI and CG Power. That’s where the plan could start showing up in supplier earnings.

#Capex

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

A private capex recovery can show up in order books before it reaches earnings.

I’d watch Siemens, ABB India and Cummins India for new private-sector orders. If orders rise but execution margins slip, I’d temper my earnings expectations.

#CapitalGoods

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

US firms can spend more on AI while cutting back on traditional IT work.

For TCS and Infosys, I’d watch how much AI work turns into revenue and whether it can replace slower legacy work without squeezing margins.

#NiftyIT

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Brent can fall in dollars while oil gets costlier in rupees.

I’d track Brent in INR for Asian Paints and jet fuel in INR for IndiGo. If both stay high, I’d check whether price hikes or higher fares are enough to protect margins.

#IndianMarkets

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

US CPI rose 0.4% in October, down from 0.6% in September but above the 0.3% forecast. Core CPI held at 0.3%.

My view: I’m watching the US 2-year yield. If it stays elevated, I’d watch for dollar strength to put more pressure on the rupee.

#USCPI #USDINR

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Banking liquidity can be in surplus while funding gets pricier.

I’m watching deposit and CD rates at HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI. If funding costs rise faster than loan yields, strong loan growth can still come with thinner margins.

#BankNifty

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

#KalyanJewellers jumped 10% today.

Q2 profit rose 64%, though underlying growth was closer to 36% after adjusting for one-time gains.

Revenue grew 31%, while margins slipped slightly.

Strong numbers, but I wouldn't chase this rally. I'd wait for a pullback.

DYOR

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Banking stocks are gaining momentum in the current bullish market. 📈

Here are the top 5 performing banking stocks leading the rally.

Which bank do you think can sustain this momentum?

#BankNifty #StockMarket

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

Data Patterns jumped about 9% Monday.

I’d mark Monday’s high and compare the first hour’s volume with its usual first-hour volume. If it clears that high on light volume and slips back below it, I’d leave the breakout alone.

#DataPatterns

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

PSU banks jumped nearly 4% Monday. Nifty IT fell 1.22%.

After the first hour, I’d count how many PSU banks are above Monday’s close. If most are below it while the index stays green, I’d hold off on calling it a broad rally.

#Nifty

[Smit Shah @TraderValleyHQ]

MRF’s sales grew sharply, but higher raw material costs squeezed profit.

My next check is Apollo Tyres and CEAT. If their margins held up, I’d look at MRF’s pricing and product mix before calling it a sector-wide squeeze.

#MRF