The general. Portfolio Manager. In my Hamptons Guest House blunt in hand, probably trading futures. Contrarian Hedge Fund Trader NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE $es trader
Month 5 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
This month’s free bet is on a music market on Kalshi:
When will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album?
I’m betting NO before August.
Let’s keep stacking these free bets. 📈
Month 4 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is complete.
June P&L: +$175
March P&L: +$1,537
April P&L: +$1,937
May P&L: +$702
June P&L: +$175
Total P&L: +$4,351
Free bets posted: +$2,222.88 profit
Slower month. Still green.
Almost $5k profit 4 months in!
Month 3 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is complete.
May P&L: +$702
March: +$1,537
April: +$1,937
May: +$702
Total P&L: +$4,176
Free bets posted: +$1,694.62
Not my best month, but green is green.
Survived a tougher tape and kept the account moving higher
Month 4 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Back again with an event-driven market on Kalshi:
When will EA’s take-private acquisition close?
I’m betting NO before July 1, 2026.
Let’s keep stacking these free bets.
Month 4 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Back again with an event-driven market on Kalshi:
When will EA’s take-private acquisition close?
I’m betting NO before July 1, 2026.
Let’s keep stacking these free bets.
Month 3 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is complete.
May P&L: +$702
March: +$1,537
April: +$1,937
May: +$702
Total P&L: +$4,176
Free bets posted: +$1,694.62
Not my best month, but green is green.
Survived a tougher tape and kept the account moving higher
Month 2 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is complete.
March P&L: +$1,537
April P&L: +$1,937
Total P&L: +$3,474
Free bets posted: +$1,283.64 profit
Gave back $3k of PNL in the last 3 days of the month, but still another strong one.
Long way to go.
Month 3 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Back again with another Culture category market from Kalshi:
When will Lil Uzi Very release a new album?
I’m betting NO before June.
Let’s keep the ball rolling on these free bets.
Month 3 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Back again with another Culture category market from Kalshi:
When will Lil Uzi Very release a new album?
I’m betting NO before June.
Let’s keep the ball rolling on these free bets.
@bernardbulletin with his lawsuit with UMG, his lack of promotion over the last few months and the price action. it was a little bit of luck, but i felt that if he was going to be releasing an album of his stature he would have been promoting it a bit more.
PRINT IT.
Drake to release ICEMAN before May — NO
$1,310.10 invested
+$1,283.64 profit (+97.98% return)
Easy return on a “free bet” because people refused to accept the obvious.
5K → 25K challenge continues.
Month 2 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Opening with a Culture category market from Kalshi:
When will Drake release Iceman?
I’m betting NO before May.
This looks like a classic market misprice driven by hype, bad timing assumptions, and rollout noise.
Explanation to follow.
Month 2 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is complete.
March P&L: +$1,537
April P&L: +$1,937
Total P&L: +$3,474
Free bets posted: +$1,283.64 profit
Gave back $3k of PNL in the last 3 days of the month, but still another strong one.
Long way to go.
Month 1 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is officially complete.
March P&L: +$1,537
2 free bets I posted also both cashed:
+$359.35 combined profit
Drake before April: +$108.03
Shutdown 43+ days: +$251.32
Strong first month. Long way to go. Staying disciplined
Month 2 of the $5K → $25K Challenge
Opening with a Culture category market from Kalshi:
When will Drake release Iceman?
I’m betting NO before May.
This looks like a classic market misprice driven by hype, bad timing assumptions, and rollout noise.
Explanation to follow.
CASH EM!
2 free bets that cashed from March
Drake before April — NO
$386.97 in (7.7% of portfolio)
+$108.03 profit (2.16% of $5K)
Shutdown 43+ — YES
$524.80 in (10.5% of portfolio)
+$251.32 profit (5.03% of $5K)
Combined: $911.77 deployed (18.2%)
+$359.35 profit (7.19% of $5K)
first two bets id like to showcase for my kalshi 5k-25k challenge
analysis to come
“ how long will the government shut down last?” Yes At Least 43 Days
“ when will Drake release iceman?” No Before April
Month 1 of the $5K → $25K prediction market challenge is officially complete.
March P&L: +$1,537
2 free bets I posted also both cashed:
+$359.35 combined profit
Drake before April: +$108.03
Shutdown 43+ days: +$251.32
Strong first month. Long way to go. Staying disciplined
Meet Wall Street's baby-faced new finance bros - they flash $10K Rolex watches, wear Celine suits and say life in NYC costs too much https://t.co/lWyJiT4RH8
first two bets id like to showcase for my kalshi 5k-25k challenge
analysis to come
“ how long will the government shut down last?” Yes At Least 43 Days
“ when will Drake release iceman?” No Before April
first two bets id like to showcase for my kalshi 5k-25k challenge
analysis to come
“ how long will the government shut down last?” Yes At Least 43 Days
“ when will Drake release iceman?” No Before April
@kmedved they promoted this because it was breaking news .. next time people should read the rules on a market. they had a clause that said “paid out at last price prior to death”.. it’s pretty black and white