Ferg

Full-time trader for 9 years now. Have a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are "uninvestable"

[Catt Calls @CattCalls]

China is paying a premium for #Platinum and the physical metal is moving East.

It's a dynamic we’ve already seen with #Gold and #Silver.

“The Chinese couldn't actually get large stakes in the #PGM refiners. So what they've done is they've just bought up the metal they can.”

The result?

@trader_ferg thinks it points to “some pretty disorderly pricing somewhere out in the future.”

Full discussion:
https://t.co/7Pcjo9GdU9

#ValterraPlatinum #SibanyeStillwater #Mining

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The @IEA has once again revised historical annual data for oil consumption (it does so every August), resulting in some significant upgrades to global demand.

The net result is that 20025 oil consumption is now estimated at 104.8m b/d (that's ~300,000 b/d higher than the last estimate, and ***a huge 1.1m b/d higher*** than where the IEA pegged a year ago 2025 demand).

Despite the huge revision to demand forecasts, the IEA still sees the market last year as oversupplied, with supply running at 106.3m b/d on average.

The changes also mean that the 105.7m b/d of oil consumption that the IEA now anticipates for 2027 is **higher** than the absolute peak oil demand it forecast a year ago (when it said that global oil consumption would peak in 2029 at 105.6m b/d).

[Fin @FinMaclaren]

@CattCalls @trader_ferg Full Episode here:
https://t.co/Jn3bvdnGHx

[Lyall Taylor @LT3000Lyall]

You say: "CoreWeave raised prices about 25% across the board in July and that came after margins were already improving. They didn't need to raise prices to hit a number, they did it because demand let them. That's the opposite of how a commodity business behaves because it tells you compute supply still isn't catching up to AI demand..."

That's exactly how a commodity business behaves. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. And when supply exceeds demand, prices go down.

You are making a bet that demand will always exceed supply. To my knowledge, in the history of capitalism, that has never sustainably happened in any industry. Cyclically yes, structurally no. Supply always eventually catches up with demand. There is a first time for everything as they say, but I severely doubt GPU clusters proves to be.

[Catt Calls @CattCalls]

“There's going to be more #inflation coming...there’s going to be an exodus of capital out of the US.”

Where are the anti-Dollar trades?

Latest discussion with @Trader_Ferg covers where he's positioned as the #USDollar weakens from #EmergingMarkets to #Commodities.

Episode now live: https://t.co/L66nzsSdiF

[Ferg @trader_ferg]

@MikeFritzell How on earth is New Zealand the third most expensive?!

[Value Consultant @ValueConU308]

Just chop some wood so you can keep the stove going in winter, people!
Europe’s Next Energy Crisis? Trader Ferg on LNG, Platinum and Uranium https://t.co/4qF38hYtKd via @YouTube

[Value Consultant @ValueConU308]

#NaturalGas #LNG #GasStorage #TTF #Energy We could be facing a big problem in the Netherlands this coming winter! Following my interview with @trader_ferg (watch the video!), I went looking for information about the Dutch gas supply. I was shocked by what I found...

[Rho Rider @RhoRider]

Bessent’s daily routine..

5am: Wake up. Check 10 year yield.

5:05am: Check Truth Social to see if Trump fired me in the night

5:10am: Send message to group chat of all my commodities hedge fund buddies: “Hormuz deal coming today - max short 🛢️! 3==D🚀”

5:15am: Check 10 year yield

5:30am: Call the SPR guy: “I got your voicemail, I don’t care if the caverns collapsed…get a shovel and release the barrels motherfucker.”

5:45am: Call Kevin Warsh and just breathe heavily on the phone

6:00am: Send message to Japanese PM- “I know you’re awake if I find out you sold a single bond we’ll make Hiroshima look like a grocery store firecracker.”

6:15am: Check the 10 year yield

6:30am: Accidentally pocket dial Yellen. Neither of us hangs up. 30 minutes of silence.

7am: Text Barak Ravid “Hi this is anonymous source again war is over today, Iran begging for a deal. Print it.”

7:05am: Read WSJ…schedule rage tweet at a journalist who accused me of manipulating Japanese currency

7:15am: Buy $10B more Yen

7:30am: Record CNBC interview: “We’re not manipulating Yen. Also Hormuz is definitely opening today.”

7:37am: Check 10 year yield

8am-10am: Stare blankly at the Treasury auction schedule while a tear slowly rolls down my face

10:15am - Trump: “Yessir, I did do the Warsh heavy breathing call”

10:17am - Day is over, time to return to my sarcophagus before the sun gets too bright…Set alarm for 2am to check Japan opened correctly. They know what happens if they didn’t listen ☢️

11:27am - snap awake in cold sweat and quickly check 10 Year Yield

[Louis-Vincent Gave @gave_vincent]

HK has always been a bridge between China and the West. As the global financial system that has endured since 1971 starts to fracture, HK’s role should turn out to be more important than ever.
I recently published a piece on this very issue with my friend and colleague @RomainMetivet. Asked the Gavekal editors to remove the paywall on this one:

https://t.co/dXKXkq2NMs

[Matt Warder @mfwarder]

$CNR releasing earnings like…

#CoalTwitter

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Glencore CEO: "The tailwind for coal is very strong"

[Harrison H. Smith ✞ @HarrisonHSmith]

So the tariff costs were passed on to the consumers, but the refund went straight to the corporations.

Lol

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Trump is now selling market-moving information to institutions and hedge funds in advance of the public for $100,000/month…

So blatantly corrupt, he deserves the coming impeachment after they lose the midterms.

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

An LNG tanker carrying a shipment from Qatar was struck by a projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz 🚢⚠️

Security consultancies Vanguard Tech and Marisks identified the ship as the Gaslog Shanghai LNG tanker

The ship had picked up a cargo from Qatar last week

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇦🇷 Milei just dropped a bomb on Argentina's politicians

His new "grillete fiscal" law brings in a shutdown mechanism if the country runs a persistent fiscal deficit, halting non-essential spending

The kicker is that if Congress fails to restore balance within weeks, the President, Vice President, ministers, and all national legislators would stop receiving salaries while essential services like pensions, health, security, and defense remain protected

That's a surefire way to get them to sort it out

Source: @JMilei / Writer: Ian

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

Qatari LNG shipment bound for Pakistan suddenly u-turns 🚢🤔

Pakistan had negotiated with Iran for its safe passage through Hormuz

It isn't clear why the ship paused the journey (I must note that it is normal for ships to sometimes tread water ahead of scheduled delivery)

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

COMMODITY TRADING: Glencore says its trading division made underlying profits of $3.3 billion in 1H 2026, nearly as much as it typically makes during a full year. At the current pace, its annual trading earnings may surpass the record high set in 2022 (when it made $6.4 billion)

[Ferg @trader_ferg]

@Steve3fhyp Yeh they were definitely betting on Ras Laffan coming back on August/Sept which doesn't look to be happening: https://t.co/IF1FqeVjmB

[Ferg @trader_ferg]

Bit early for optimism... unless JKM trades below TTF so EU can secure the flexible destination US LNG

[Stephen Stapczynski @SStapczynski]

European natural gas prices drop the most in over a month after the US paused strikes on Iran over the weekend 🇪🇺📉

🚢 The move is building optimism that LNG flows through Hormuz could resume
⚠️ TTF down as much as 9% (!!) today

[Ferg @trader_ferg]

@Steve3fhyp This was a decent article: https://t.co/7De2yY9H7v

[Ferg @trader_ferg]

@Steve3fhyp Correct higher net-back wins would have been cleaner way to state it as include the $1.5-2 voyage cost. The premium has been fluctuating but its been enough of a JKM premium to pull a decent chunk of the cargos EU assumed it it would get.