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[Traders Community @TradersCom]

📊 Cautious Investor Market Weekly #22
The $8 Trillion Cash Mountain and the Rising Cost of Risk
🏦 US & European sovereign debt stress
💵 $8T in cash — No rate cuts, no cash cuts
⚡ Oil, Ukraine & the inflation shock
🤖 AI's growing financing burden
🌏 The evolving global carry trade
13 @KnovaWave charts covering bonds, FX, energy, gold & semiconductors.
Markets don't lack money. They face increasingly expensive competition for it.
https://t.co/rwPXsIL2jq #Markets #Bonds #Macro #Oil #AI

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

The key is whether the French problem starts spreading to Italy, Spain and other eurozone sovereign markets.
If German Bunds rally while French and Italian spreads both widen, that would suggest a broader fragmentation trade.
But if Italian and Spanish spreads remain relatively contained while French OATs continue selling off, this is predominantly a France-specific political and fiscal credibility problem.
There's another interesting angle here. France's debt is approaching 120% of GDP, yet unlike the US, it doesn't independently control the currency in which its sovereign debt is issued.

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

Paris burning continues …
#France 10-year OAT 5.142%
Highest since 2002
OAT–Bund spread 173 bp
Widest since 2011
France–US 10-year spread has just crossed into positive territory for the first time since 2013 but to us the real story is the OAT–Bund spread.
In mid-September it was roughly 95 basis points. Now we're talking about 173 basis points.
That's an extraordinary repricing in just over a month.

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@gamesblazer06 it deepens my friend

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

Remember punters time and price is everything in trading - something delusional self important overpaid tech grifters missed in their f’ the public handbook - oh well

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Anthropic to publicly file for IPO as early as Friday, per YF

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@jedimarkus77 Maybe open a franc franc account at SocGen - oh wait

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@apanalis @MiguelSCompton @YoungerBolling @ThePitBoss16 @B_SandhuLondon @VKNGenergy 🥹😉

[Susan Sakmar @SusanSakmar]

📣 USLNG exporter @Cheniere signs deal to supply @qatarenergy with LNG as Qatar’s production remains disrupted by the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz. 🚢

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@epictrades1 Yep be what you are rather than say what you are

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@JoshYoung 😂 I thought we would go halves on it 😆 maybe we use one of the bloody loan approvals that get spammed everyday

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@LongTplexTrader My Irish grand ma says téigh trasna ort féin

[Julie Wade @julie_wade]

VIX Gapped down to lower Daily 1 and BOUNCED. On the line.

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@marquisletigre Is that the AI bubble pumpkin - don’t pop it 😏

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@WAR527 Monty Python 101

[Chuck Yates @nimblephatty]

And I thought buying Haynesville at $25k/acre was all the money in the world

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@jedimarkus77 Wonder what they come up with next - I guess they reached into the bottom drawer

[Shariq Khan @shariqindubai]

Personal news: thrilled to announce I joined Bloomberg News as a Middle East oil reporter in Dubai this week. Look forward to taking on the challenge of covering the biggest energy crisis with some of the best in the biz.

Thanks to all who made the Reuters journey memorable.

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@shariqindubai Awesomeness - look forward to hearing from you - stay safe over there mate 🙏

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@200pipss What about my gold plated Berreta?

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

Gold, silver and copper: an important warning
#Gold$4,065.14−1.83%
#Silver$55.77−3.77%
#Copper$6.36−2.74%
We shouldn't ignore the fact that gold is falling while Treasury yields decline and equities weaken.
Normally that combination could be supportive of gold.
Instead, silver and copper are being hit considerably harder, suggesting liquidation, profit-taking or a repricing of industrial demand is taking precedence over the traditional safe-haven narrative.
For our gold-miner trading framework, I would watch whether $NEM and $GDX demonstrate relative strength against bullion before considering another tactical $GDXU entry.
Gold miners holding up while gold declines would be constructive. Miners underperforming bullion would suggest the correction still has work to do.

[Traders Community @TradersCom]

@MPelletierCIO Energy down a surprise - anything specific ? Haven't had time to look given oil and natty and French bonds taking all my attention this week