The Traders Spread

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[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Romania's next-PM market prices the loser of the nomination at 33.3%, the designate at 17.85%.

Nazare fell 52.85% to 12.35% in eight hours, then came back.

His three parties hold 170 of the 233 votes needed
PSD voted against on 21 Sep
$3.96m matched

https://t.co/7o4JcH9ZL8

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

StatCan cut Canada's oat crop 22.7% and oats settled at $4.16.

The weather did almost none of it.

Yield down just 3.5%, 4th highest on record
Harvested area down 19.9%
20 reportable traders hold 3,132 lots

Farmers planted less. That is the shortage.

https://t.co/IuIQjeGLsZ

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

ZAMA doubled to $0.0955 in a week, not on the day the vaults opened.

15 and 16 September printed identical.

+64% between 18 and 20 September
Turnover $13m to $147m
$54.6m in the four confidential-only vaults

Fees burn, but 5% a year is still minted.

https://t.co/dmSIqKE8Eo

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$WBD closed at $30.80, 20 cents under the $31.00 cash price.

That meter is why Paramount settled Monday.

$0.00277778 per share per day after 30 Sep
~$6.97m a day across 2.51bn shares
234.1m shares, ~11x average

The spread is a calendar, not a view.

https://t.co/3zMnbyTWcO

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

The BoJ hiked to 1.25% on Friday and AUD/JPY went up 1.5%.

The carry gap did not narrow, it widened.

RBA-BoJ spread 2.85pp on 1 Jan, 3.10pp from 24 Sep
112.25 Monday fix, +15.1% in a year
167 of 184 fixes above the 2007 peak

The hike cut the wrong way.

https://t.co/26K0d1kWQF

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

BoJ hiked to 1.25%. EUR/JPY had its biggest up-day since March.

+1.23% on the 18 Sep fix, 178.75 to 180.94
Real-rate gap: roughly zero (-0.70 vs -0.65)
MoF yen buying this year: ¥27.1tn

Carry can't explain a 180 handle. Tokyo explains the ceiling.

https://t.co/fALtgtC6hb

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$OP rose 31.9% in the week Upgrade 20 passed. The upgrade is not why.

Arbitrum, no upgrade, no vote: +27.4%
Voters: 156 addresses
Against: 0.13% of voting power vs a 20% veto line

This was a Layer 2 beta trade that landed in an upgrade week.

https://t.co/PgnpfPY16V

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

CDU at 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Polymarket prices Merz out by year-end at 23.5%.

The risk is in the wrong month.

19 of 23.5 pts placed before 31 Oct
Only 4.5 pts for Nov-Dec
Budget final vote: 27 Nov

Our fair value for the year-end leg: 16%.

https://t.co/553OoZM5fw

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Feedlot placements hit the lowest August on record. Cattle on feed still rose.

Placements: 1.617m head, -9.2%
On feed 1 Sep: 11.163m, +0.7%
Cash steers: $222.82/cwt vs $262.85 in May

Cattle are held longer, come out heavier. Fewer head, not less beef.

https://t.co/ff8vZdgGqE

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Lock-ups are supposed to sink a stock. $SPCX rose through three of them.

41.0% gain since 5 Aug
~1/3 of the lock-up pool freed
$6.5bn Valor hand-out on 11 Sep, tape barely moved

Fourth release lands Thursday. 183m more shares sit in Valor's plan.

https://t.co/5zTAwEXqNB

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Zinc's backwardation was $217 on 27 August. It's $79 now.

LME stocks rose 32.04% over the same stretch.

+27,725t since 18 Aug, 18,500t on two days
Refined H1 surplus: 120,000t
Mine output -2.6%

$217 was 21.13% annualised on no directional risk.

https://t.co/zpJIrMI4mV

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

ECB hiked to 2.50% on 10 Sep. BoE held at 3.75% a day later.

Policy gap 125bp. The 2y spread prices 152.9bp.

2y gilt 4.7617%, Schatz 3.2332%
UK 2y: +101.2bp over Bank Rate
Bund 2y: +73.3bp over deposit

Sterling is paid for 28bp the BoE hasn't done.

https://t.co/Tuh2cAHqw9

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

FedEx retired $4.86bn of bonds in July at 85c on the dollar.

In September it sold $3.36bn of new notes.

Retired: 4.098% coupon, 2044 avg
New: 4.752%, due 2030–2036
$FDX debt: $14.24bn → $17.64bn

71 cents of every dollar came back 65bp dearer.

https://t.co/R03Hxmz3F0

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Ondo rose 11.1% in 31 hours on the SEC's "innovation exemption."

Tier 1 tokenized stock is capped at 0.25% of a symbol's monthly volume.

$ONDO: $0.3283 → $0.3857
Global Markets collateral: $934.58m
Peak: $1,203.09m, 1 June

None of it is covered.

https://t.co/o5Gfi2gPrb

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Polymarket's TIME Person of the Year board: $50,269 of lifetime volume.

Four legs took $378 of that — and set 24.8 of the board's 158.2 points.

Midpoints sum to 158.2%
Best offers, 214.5%
Best bids, 101.9%

0.75% of the money sets 15.7% of the board.

https://t.co/Chew62IEUC

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Polymarket has Harry Kane at 56.35% for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

He shed 4.55 points after Yamal's third straight brace on 13 September.

Voting closed 19 July 2026
Kalshi 57c/58c
De-vigged bookie median 54.45%

The market is repricing a sealed ballot.

https://t.co/Oz8p0pjYYX

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

The CAC 40 is flat on 2026. The STOXX 600 is up 7.58%.

Everyone blames the budget. We regressed it.

CAC vs OAT-Bund spread
2025: -0.19, 254 sessions
2026: -0.04, 178 sessions

LVMH, Hermes, EssilorLuxottica: ~250bn euro gone.

Luxury, not politics.

https://t.co/BWbeIUfgQ2

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

Jakarta keeps cutting nickel ore quotas. LME stock hit 278,790t, the highest since May.

Quotas squeeze Class 2 output. The LME settles 99.8% Class 1 metal.

Stock +23.1% y/y, cash +5.6%
7 Jan spike: +20,088t in a day

Premium in the wrong contract.

https://t.co/Ei4bC6ltgj

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

A Korean broker adopting Avalanche added ~$208M of market cap in two days.

What that adoption pays the protocol, per its own arithmetic:

P-Chain fee 512 nAVAX/sec
~1.33 AVAX a month per validator
10 validators = ~$100/mo

$AVAX: $7.59 to $8.07 to $7.51.

https://t.co/81rXIQndlM

[The Traders Spread @TradersSpread]

$ADBE printed its best quarter ever and fell 12.3% anyway.

The FY26 ARR growth target has not moved since December, when it excluded Semrush.

Q3 revenue $6.76B, +13%
Semrush adds ~$480M ARR
Implied organic ~8.3%, not 10.2%

Adobe never called it a cut.

https://t.co/EEVjTRFspH