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Attached an example with $SNDK so you can see the red line (200 EMA) acting as support on yesterday's dip
The more hype and posts I see about this $HPE setup, the more I expect a major shakeout. A retest of its high AVWAP or even its YTD AVWAP (the two pink lines on the chart)
Yesterday was a tough one. Got stopped out right at the open on what was actually one of my best executed entries to date. Chart Breakdown (5m):
On Friday, I bought the intraday reversal following $AXTI’s earnings gap after spotting the first support candle signaling a turn. I took an 80% position with a 2.5% stop at LOD
Mid-day, it formed a VCP pattern and broke out above its opening AVWAP on volume, a level that had already acted as resistance three times. That’s where I added the remaining 20%
Then came yesterday’s open: a massive gap down/flush that hit my stop loss, slipping by 3% (it opened down -15%!). Right after shaking me out, it reclaimed and launched a massive +35% rally from that low (by the way, volatility is back in full force pre-market today. Not sure how this ends. It just swung from +16% all the way to -5%)
Honestly, this has been the hardest trade to digest since I started active trading. Watching the chart all day, hoping for a re-entry that never came as it printed green candle after green candle, only added to the frustration
My psychology is usually pretty solid, but yesterday tested me. I took the loss on this one
If there’s one win here, it’s that I stuck strictly to my rules and didn't chase price out of emotion. I’ll take that
Head is clearer today. Even seeing it continue to climb, I’ve accepted it. It’s all part of the game
That’s what you’ll find on this account. While everyone else posts their winning screenshots, I’ll keep showing the reality. The losses and the psychology that most traders hide just to maintain an image and sell courses
Over 12 years of investing, but only 164 days into active trading
I’m still discovering which style best fits my personality. I started with consolidation breakouts (Minervini style), but I quickly realized they don't happen that often, and their success rate depends entirely on market conditions. The same goes for Power Plays or High Tight Flags
Knowing my own psychology, losing more trades than I win doesn't destroy my mental game. I could lose 20 trades in a row and stay calm because I manage risk strictly and prioritize capital preservation above all else. I risk very little per trade
Because I can handle lower win rates, I’m comfortable taking lower-probability setups as long as the upside significantly outplays the losses
Lately, I’ve been feeling really comfortable with two main setups:
1. Pullbacks in Stage 2 uptrend stocks bouncing off key MAs or AVWAPs that have historically respected those levels.
2. Anticipation trades in strong uptrending stocks when volume dries up and price tighten
Both allow me to use tiny stop losses and risk almost nothing. I'm also testing Episodic Pivots, constantly refining my entry rules for them
Across all these setups, my favorite execution is waiting for the typical intraday fade (often around mid-day or after the open) for a reversal entry. I prefer entering after the market has swept weak hands and I see intraday strength reacting off technical levels
Finding what clicks takes time, but focusing on tiny risk and asymmetric reward feels right for me
Lucky me
$SNDK held my stop yesterday, and I just moved it to breakeven. Hoping for some follow-through over the next few days. Since I have a cushion now, I prefer to sit back and let it play out
Nightmares of a trader: my $SNDK experience yesterday...
I was watching Sandisk closely all day as it approached its YTD AVWAP and the 200 EMA. On the 5m chart, I saw it hold support around $1000 with buyers stepping in on volume, so I took the entry on the breakout of that 5m candle. Stop was placed slightly below $1000 (2.4%)
At first, it was pure perfection. I literally caught the bottom, and after the FOMC release and Warsh’s speech, I was up +9%. I let my guard down, stepped away to grab a bite, and came back to absolute carnage: held position through close, currently down 0.3%
Good chance I get stopped out today. But that's the game. Sizing remains super light, hardly trading these days
Still learning, still losing, just losing less amount now. PnL for the year just flipped into the red, but it is what it is
If you’re struggling in this market, if you’re losing money, don’t throw in the towel. Use it to learn from your mistakes. It’s the best masterclass you’ll ever get
If you can keep managing risk right now: sizing down, no revenge trading, no overtrading, keeping tight stops... you’re already ahead of most. In a healthy market, you’ll make it all back as long as you stay calm
Nightmares of a trader: my $SNDK experience yesterday...
I was watching Sandisk closely all day as it approached its YTD AVWAP and the 200 EMA. On the 5m chart, I saw it hold support around $1000 with buyers stepping in on volume, so I took the entry on the breakout of that 5m candle. Stop was placed slightly below $1000 (2.4%)
At first, it was pure perfection. I literally caught the bottom, and after the FOMC release and Warsh’s speech, I was up +9%. I let my guard down, stepped away to grab a bite, and came back to absolute carnage: held position through close, currently down 0.3%
Good chance I get stopped out today. But that's the game. Sizing remains super light, hardly trading these days
Still learning, still losing, just losing less amount now. PnL for the year just flipped into the red, but it is what it is
If you’re struggling in this market, if you’re losing money, don’t throw in the towel. Use it to learn from your mistakes. It’s the best masterclass you’ll ever get
If you can keep managing risk right now: sizing down, no revenge trading, no overtrading, keeping tight stops... you’re already ahead of most. In a healthy market, you’ll make it all back as long as you stay calm
Haven't posted in a while, been practically inactive in this market. Right now, capital preservation is key, so my position sizes are tiny with super tight stops. Taking this chop as a break to keep studying and working on my process
I'm trying to refine a system that actually makes money in these conditions, allows for proper risk management, and lets me scale in progressively
I want setups that appear multiple times a day, textbook VCPs or consolidation breakouts only work in a healthy market and are way too rare right now
For now, buying reversals and reclaiming key EMAs or AVWAP is where I feel most comfortable. Focusing my study there and I'll share what I learn if it pays off
Yesterday I took a tiny test position on $CNC's earnings reversal as it reclaimed its AVWAP and 50EMA. It gave me a tight 3.3% stop. Between the tight risk and small sizing, I'm risking less than 0.3% of my account. Negligible risk, but it lets me stay engaged and test the tape
Looking at the old leaders, $DELL and $AMD have the best setups on my radar. Holding up solid despite market conditions
$DELL is just 6% from highs, holding above its 9 & 21 EMAs, and $AMD is around 10%. Meanwhile, $SNDK, $MU, and $STX are taking deeper cuts, down 25%+ from their peaks
Boring days for me
The market isn't giving me any setups. Over the past few days, I've only taken two trades: one in $DDOG where I got stopped out quickly with a tight stop under 2% on an AVWAP reclaim setup, and I tried the same with $TGTX, which is holding up so far with a 0.85% stop
Between my tiny sizing due to my losing streak and my tight stops, this is basically paper trading just to feed my market addiction
My portfolio is not looking good right now. I only have two active positions left: $KRYS and $PACS, after getting stopped out of all my other stocks
All the A+ setups I had are falling apart, but new ones that held up better are starting to emerge. I'm seeing strength in Cybersecurity like $PANW, and consumer names like $SN. Software seems to be holding up well too, and there's an IPO I really like: $PTRN
It's time to size down, just like I did during my last losing streak. My main priority is preserving capital, and if I have to trade with half my usual size, I'll do exactly that until things improve
@RichardMoglen I’d be surprised if we don’t see some sort of shakeout in the coming days after a +12% run from there. Just a gut feeling after seeing so many failed breakouts and quick reversals lately