$KOLD - Two ranked trades arrived today, suggesting institutions are closing their $natgas shorts once again. Nothing of consequence has printed in $UNG or $BOIL.
50/50 we get one more nominal high in $KOLD before a meaningful reversal.
Typically, the chain of events would unfold like this:
1 - Large $KOLD positions closed.
2 - The F-you wave to trip stops and scare everybody out of $natgas longs.
3 - $UNG blocks start to arrive at/near the low.
4 - $BOIL blocks start to arrive after the first rally/pullback at a higher low.
Step 2 is optional. I suppose all of these steps are optional. But this is what I'll be looking for.
Of course, all of these ETFs are dependent on futures so they might just choose to deal with all of it in the middle of the night.
The primary takeaway for me is that these trades that arrived today are exit signals. They are *not* invitations to take long positions in $natgas, though I'm sure some will. Most of all, they're suggesting that a transition is in progress and to stay alert.
One last detail - institutions *love* to gap in both directions on Sunday nights. I'll be looking for $UNG to arrive with size sometime after the close tomorrow. Anything 1M shares or more is worth minding.
Gas ETFs are part of the Natural Resources VL lite package.
https://t.co/i5V7d5Evfk