#MACROJ
Stocks ended higher on a shortened trading day thanks to a strong jobs report. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose, signaling the market is seeing less likelihood of a July rate cut.
Oil fell ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, where production is expected to increase
#BTC.D does not seem to want to go down, we are waiting for lateral movements for confirmation. Breaking 66% with force would take us up to 70% and for altcoins it could be one of the worst moments. Zoom out, the decline is not over.. contrary to those who already call it altseason
BEWARE OF MARKET DISSONANCE
The S&P 500 seems ready to hit new highs… but there is tension beneath the surface.
Iran and the US have entered into conflict, the Fed is at a standstill, the risk of global recession increases, and only a few tariff agreements have been signed. However, investors seem to ignore everything and are still banking on AI & Big Tech.
The market recovery is almost entirely thanks to tech stocks: Nvidia +11.57% Year To Date Palantir +90.05% YTD But sectors such as consumer discretionary and healthcare are still struggling, and small-cap stocks are below pre-tariff levels.
Consumer confidence also falls: Conference Board Index from 98.4 to 93 in a month.
As UBS writes: “Tariff tensions still weigh on sentiment.”
Watch out for the next shock.
#Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino recently reviewed the initial plans for the construction of Tether Tower in El Salvador.
This marks a significant milestone in Tether’s partnership with the Salvadoran government to boost the Latin American country’s digital economy.
The tower, which will be one of the tallest skyscrapers in Central America, is designed to embody Tether’s mission to integrate blockchain technology into El Salvador’s economic and urban infrastructure.
MACRO DATA:
• Weekly Jobless Claims: -10,000 (now at 236,000)
• Continued Unemployment: +37,000 (1.97 million, highest since 2021)
• Q1 GDP revised: -0.2% to -0.5% - worrying
• Durable Goods Orders: +16.4% (thanks to 303 Boeings sold in May!)
• Trade Deficit: +11.1% to $96.6 billion
• Negative GDP marks first contraction in 3 years, due to weaker-than-expected consumption.
#Geopolitics
Ceasefire in the Middle East → Despite some clashes, investors are banking on the truce holding. The markets are celebrating.
#Economy
Trump vs Powell → The president attacks the Fed, but Powell holds his ground: “Controlling the purchase remains the priority”. Rate forecasts → Economist Sløk predicts only one rate cut in 2025, despite Wall Street expectations.
#Commodities
Oil down 5% → Pushed down by the truce and new US openings to China to buy Iranian crude. Gold down → Investors are looking for yield, not safety.
#PEACE (?)
Donald Trump, with his usual emphasis, had announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, lighting a flame of hope for peace. However, the truce was immediately compromised by the Israeli bombing of Tehran. Iran, while denying provocations, was involved in a clash that saw a missile graze a US base in Qatar, fueling already high tensions.
Trump, visibly irritated by the evolution of the situation, accused both nations of violating the agreement and urged them to withdraw the Israeli pilots. His words, strong and direct, were intended to restore order, but the chaos continued on the ground, demonstrating that diplomacy can be fragile.
#Attacks on Iran
Israel and the United States have inflicted severe damage on Iran, but it remains to be seen if and how Tehran will respond. The critical point to monitor is the Strait of Hormuz, which passes through a large share of global oil exports.
The Iranian parliament has voted to close it, but the final decision rests with Supreme Leader Khamenei.
On statistics sites and polls, the chances of Iran closing the Strait:
before July: 36%
by the end of the year: 53%