Transition Protocol

Geopolitics, De-Dollarization & the New World Order | Hosted by Zulfiqar Ali ft. Pepe Escobar & Larry C. Johnson |

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Brent: -16.4% in the week to Nov 6, -5.85% Monday, $91.49 Tuesday. Lowest since Aug 31.

Hormuz transits: still about 65% below pre-conflict (UKMTO).

The market is pricing a deal. The strait is pricing a war. One of them is wrong.

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There is no Iran deal in force. Tehran's half is public: Araghchi says the two-day proposal still stands.

Washington's yes is missing, and the blockade stays. Oil is pricing a deal anyway.

https://t.co/nVbzYUyp0y

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Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, after the planned Doha talks fell apart: "I think the likelihood now of renewed kinetic strikes by the United States on Iran is quite high."

His read: Washington is preparing the public narrative. Full episode: https://t.co/V8MYz45dRv

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Why Would Russia Risk Its Ships Over Iran?

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China’s Demand. Iran’s Answer. Who Killed the Deal?

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Rubio’s Secret G7 Message: No Deal, No Strikes?

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The source's words, as Ali relays them: "We will take action to break out of this situation." Full conversation with Pepe Escobar — the Qatari plan, the Pakistan channel, and why Escobar says it won't hold: https://t.co/zjVqNaLKq4

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Iran will act to break the "no war, no peace" stalemate if the Qatar-backed talks fail — that is what a source in Mohsen Rezaee's office told Zulfiqar Ali hours before air.

Asked if that means a preemptive attack, Ali: "Correct."

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Iran Will Win? Escobar and Ali Disagree on What Comes Next

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Russia, China… Pakistan? Who Will Stand With Iran?

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The $8 Billion Iran Deal — What’s the Catch?

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Dates to watch:
Nov 16: EASA’s conflict-zone bulletin for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman runs out unless renewed.
Mid-Nov: USS Theodore Roosevelt due, to relieve the George Washington. Rotation, not surge.

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Marco Rubio called Iran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous.” Trump told CNN strikes are “highly unlikely” while talks continue.
One statement rules out a quick deal. The other rules out a quick war. Neither says yes.

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Oil through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 4.9 million barrels a day in Q2, from 21.6 million (US EIA data, via AFP).
A deal would reopen the strait. It would not refill it.

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67 of Israel’s 120 lawmakers recommended Gadi Eisenkot. President Herzog gave him the mandate on November 8.
A mandate is not a coalition. Until a government forms, Netanyahu stays caretaker, with authority over Israel’s military.

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Tehran believes it has a deal with Washington. Washington has not said yes.
On our reporting: the US lifts the blockade and releases about $8 billion held in Qatar. Then Iran reopens Hormuz.
Neither government has confirmed it.

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Johnson: if Washington agrees, it is "the first indicator that the prospects for war are dissipating."

Still open: whether Iran keeps its Hormuz tolls. Full conversation: https://t.co/VElfnUOIp9

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An Iranian source close to Mohsen Rezaee tells Transition Protocol that Tehran believes a deal with Washington is in place:
- up to $8B in frozen assets via Qatar
- US naval blockade lifted
- Iran reopens Hormuz
Not confirmed by the US. Ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson explains

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$8 Billion for Iran — Is This the Deal to Reopen Hormuz?

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Is the Iran Deal Already Done? Tehran’s Source Speaks