Traumanomics

Trauma and Economics

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@ELuttwak ... by the sword of Arabs to say 'La ilaha illallah'."

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@ELuttwak You can add to it making apostasy punishable by death. Said Shojaeddin Shafa: "An Iranian Muslim is a Muslim only because his father was a Muslim, and his father was also a Muslim for the same reason. And the end of this chain reaches a tortured Zoroastrian, who was forced ...

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@MauriceFit24931 @ELuttwak Well, and Bibi might turn out to be right about Iran, but just as voters in 1945 were war weary, Israel’s allies are also war weary.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@Ofer_binshtok 2/ It is highly likely they might consider backing off from their commitment for elimination if Israel, now that Khamenei is gone, and thereby wind down their investment in Hezbollah considering their missiles now credibly affords them deterrence.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@Ofer_binshtok My understanding is that if Israel alone attacks Iran, they will retaliate by attacking the US bases in the Gulf and Gulf nations' infrastructure. Naturally US will not want Israel to attack. That Iran has only one card left: MAD vis-a-vis Gulf nations weakens them substantially.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@Ofer_binshtok Furthermore, there would have been retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries' critical infrastructure including oil infrastructure. Which is why Trump recalibrated and negotiated this settlement and cut his losses.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@Ofer_binshtok Complete victory required bombing Iran's critical infrastructure, and even then needing troops on the ground. The arming of Kurds strategy, if it resulted in a decade long civil war, would have left US reputation in tatters. Victory at that cost is not worth it for the US.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@majid_hatamian This is a good take. I doubt IRGC will have an appetite to restart the war once some money starts flowing in. They may even agree to stop arming proxies such as Hezbollah as they have been able to demonstrate deterrence with their missile program. https://t.co/ZIkzyQUzRU

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@ConceptualJames US bombed Iran twice in 12 months and with Israel assassinated their supreme leader and now are about to directly negotiate with them since the revolution. This is a major achievement. Trump wants Iran to go from being anti US to neutral or even pro US over time, away from China.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@RobertJThomas1 @ConceptualJames McConnell is retiring at the end of this year - he's gone no matter what!

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@ConceptualJames US bombed Iran twice in 12 months and with Israel assassinated their supreme leader and now are about to directly negotiate with them since the revolution. This is a major achievement. Trump wants Iran to go from being anti US to neutral or even pro US over time, away from China.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@sardesairajdeep It is Modi's hardline position that nudged Pakistan to play a positive role for a change - they had no other path open! One day Pakistan will award Modi their most prestigious award for saving them.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@sardesairajdeep Our enemies will win sometimes and we will face setbacks. That by itself does not mean anything. If Pakistan finds a way to be relevant to powers that be and have something to live for, maybe they'll see the value of lowering the temperature with India.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@CorneliusW69773 @TheOfficerTatum My point is 14 yr olds are immature and will do stupid a$$ things, which is why they must not carry a gun. A gun makes others nervous and people do what they have to do to neutralize the threat.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@CorneliusW69773 @TheOfficerTatum I was responding to "Who runs away from non cops with a fuckin gun use your logic." As per Rick Chow's testimony that was consistent from the 911 call onwards, the kid pointed the gun at Rick' son, which is why Rick shot him.Try being less emotional and think logically/rationally

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@CorneliusW69773 @TheOfficerTatum 14 year olds. The kid should not have had a gun.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@DanielBShapiro Even if the final nuclear deal looks like JCPOA it would be still a lot better end result because the US and Israel have severely weakened IRGC and its proxies. Now, IRGC knows that if it arms Hezbollah aggressively like before they could end up in a war with Israel.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@Mr_Andrew_Fox I think IRGC hardliners are unhappy with the deal and are trying to sabotage it by having Hezbollah fire missiles and inviting Israeli counter attack. At some point the US and Iran might agree to wash their hands off their respective allies and let them manage their differences.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@MazMHussain Israel neutralized many of those threats (Hamas, Hezbollah, nuclear program), and were hoping a permanent change through regime change. That would lead to a longer term peace in the middle east.

[Traumanomics @Traumanomics]

@MazMHussain It is a democracy and they'll self correct. For 40 years they have seen Iran committed to destruction of Israel, build a powerful proxy, Hezbollah, on its northern border armed with thousands of missiles, armed Hamas and building a nuclear weapon.