@Reformed_Trader It may be down in part because investors fear a near term static test for falcon 9 like the one that blue origin blew up and perhaps also the first batch launch with 3 satellites at once. That and an insider sold 40k shares.
@WhiteGirl1776 This happed to me in 2nd grade in the Dominican Republic in the early 80s a Dominican jumped on my diamond back silver streak because bike I brought over from the US and he took it. Savages
$ASTS with Amazon’s Kuiper constellation /Amazon Leo now seemingly out of the picture as adjacent competition to AST isn’t that good news for AST as now we can diversify laterally into that space along with data centers adding to the TAM? Or be a bigger BO target?
🚨 JUST NOW: Jeff Bezos’ New Glenn rocket has EXPLODED into a MASSIVE fireball on the launchpad at Cape Canaveral in Florida
It literally looks like a NUCLEAR BOMB went off.
@ElonMusk responded: “Most unfortunate. Rockets are hard.”
Insane to watch.
I stand corrected. $ASTS was indeed mentioned in the SpaceX S-1. Named as a competitor in the largest IPO in stock market history.
But more importantly, @SpaceX just told the SEC that Starlink Mobile -- their D2D satellite-to-phone business -- is a $740 billion total addressable market.
Not my number. Not an analyst estimate. SpaceX's number. Filed with the SEC. Legally binding.
$740 billion. For the market that $ASTS is the only public pure-play in.
Let me put this in context.
SpaceX S-1 breaks down their Connectivity TAM as:
Starlink Broadband: $870B
Starlink Mobile (D2D): $740B
Total Connectivity: $1.6 trillion
Their Connectivity segment today:
$11.4B revenue at 63% EBITDA margins.
The most profitable satellite business ever built.
Their D2D today:
650 mobile satellites, 7.4 million monthly unique devices, ~30 countries.
T-Mobile's CFO calls it "low usage, geographically contained."
SpaceX next-gen broadband D2D (V2 Mobile): deploying on Starship in 2027. Needs Starship flying commercial payloads reliably, 3GPP Band n252 finalized, phone OEMs adding chipset support, and 1,200 new satellites built. 2027 is ambitious. 2028-2029 is realistic.
$ASTS launches broadband D2D next month.
Now the repricing math using SpaceX's own $740B TAM:
$ASTS at $89 today = ~$34B market cap.
That's pricing ASTS at 4.6% of the TAM that SpaceX itself just validated.
SpaceX paid $17B for 65 MHz of D2D spectrum alone. Just the entry ticket to this $740B market. No satellites for it. No phones support it. No service.
ASTS costs $34B and you get: satellites in orbit, 33 more in production, 98.9 Mbps proven, custom ASIC in production, $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog, 60 carrier partners, all three US carriers forming a JV around it, and the only low-band indoor D2D spectrum access on Earth.
Even at modest market capture:
1% of $740B = $7.4B revenue → at 15x = $111B → ~$290/share
2% of $740B = $14.8B revenue → at 12x = $178B → ~$466/share
3% of $740B = $22.2B revenue → at 10x = $222B → ~$581/share
SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T valuation on $18.7B total revenue across Space, Connectivity, and AI. That's a 94x revenue multiple. The market is willing to pay for TAM capture.
ASTS at $34B on a $740B TAM with confirmed technology, carrier partnerships, and a launch next month? That's not speculation. That's a mispricing.
63% EBITDA margins at scale. SpaceX just proved satellite connectivity prints money. The same business model applies to ASTS.
When the repricing happens:
This week -- analysts pull apart the S-1. ASTS named in the competitor section.
The $740B D2D TAM enters institutional models for the first time.
Next 2 weeks -- Goldman, Morgan Stanley publish SpaceX models. Every D2D valuation needs a public comparable. SpaceX just named one.
June 8-12 -- SpaceX roadshow. Every financial network in America talks space. The only public D2D pure-play rides the wave.
Mid-June -- BB8-10 launch on Falcon 9. $ASTS puts broadband hardware in orbit while SpaceX V2 Mobile is still on a roadmap.
Late June -- Russell rebalancing. SpaceX IPO capital rotates into the space sector.
SpaceX validated the TAM at $740B. Validated 63% margins. Named the competitor. And their broadband D2D is years away.
The repricing clock started today.
$ASTS 🛰️