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[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

Nominal retail sales keep hitting new highs, BUT-

Inflation-adjusted retail sales peaked years ago.

Americans are spending more, but not necessarily buying more goods.

A large portion of the “growth” since 2021 has simply been inflation.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

AI concentration is now reaching the same levels seen during some of the biggest market bubbles in history.

• Railroads bubble: 63% concentration
• Japan bubble: 44%
• Dot-com bubble: 41%
• Today’s AI trade: 40%

The “AI Big 10” now make up ~40% of the S&P 500.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

According to Gallup-

55% of Americans see their financial situation getting worse.

That number has grown 5 years in a row.

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Target rate probabilities by December:

- 71.7% chance of no change
- 13.9% chance of a rate hike
- 13% chance of a rate cut

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

@dividendology Indeed it is!

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

How can a married couple living in California making $200k maximize their fixed income?

A 4.20% in-state CA municipal bond is the equivalent of earning 6.11% on a taxable bond, because it's exempt from BOTH federal and CA state tax.

Even a 30Y Treasury at 4.97% only gets you to a 5.48% TEY.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

🚨 BREAKING:

The U.S. National Debt has officially surpassed the size of the entire economy.

For the first time in decades, publicly held debt has climbed above 100% of GDP, a threshold once considered unthinkable.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

The S&P 500 dividend yield just hit ~1.08%, one of the lowest levels in history.

Meanwhile:

- U.S. Treasuries are paying 4–5%+ with essentially zero credit risk
- MAG7 corporate bonds have yields of 6%+
- Investment-grade municipal bonds offer 3–5% tax-free (often 5–7%+ taxable equivalent)

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

🚨 THE 30 YEAR TREASURY NOW SITS RIGHT AT 5%-

UP NEARLY 200% FROM 2021 LOWS!

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The performance of the S&P 500 under each Fed Chair since 1970:

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

Notice a pattern?

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

🚨 BREAKING: For the first time since 1946, U.S. national debt has officially exceeded 100% of GDP.

Translation for the 10-year Treasury:

Investors will demand a premium to hold more risk.

Fixed income rates will go higher.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

How much risk are you willing to take on to achieve your desired yield?

It's amazing how much more yield you can get in the corporate bond space with investment grade companies vs U.S Treasury's.

U.S. Treasury 3 YR: 3.93%
Corp A+ 3 YR: 7.80%

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

There's a reason the market has shifted from expecting 3 rate cuts in 2026, to now a potential rate hike by the end of year.

Inflation is sticky, and sky high oil prices due to the Iran conflict only add to that stickiness.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed started cutting rates in Sep 2024 with the 30-year Treasury yield below 4%.

They cut rates 175 bps and the 30-year yield is now approaching 5%.

The Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

🚨 BREAKING:

After the Fed meeting today, target rate probabilities are now showing an 84.6% chance of no rate cuts this year-

And an 11.8% chance of a rate HIKE.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

Today is officially Jerome Powell's last meeting as the chair of the Federal Reserve.

During his tenure, he navigated:

• The fastest market crash in history (COVID)
• Trillions in stimulus + zero interest rates
• The highest inflation in 40+ years
• The most aggressive rate hiking cycle in decades
• A regional banking crisis

How would you grade his performance?

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

@dividendology Very true.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

We've seen a huge shift in the yield curve in the last few months.

The yield curve is no longer inverted.

Short-term rates: ~3.5%
Long-term rates: ~5%

The bond market is now pricing in persistent inflation + higher-for-longer rates.

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

Two deep-discount bonds the market sleeps on:

MSFT 2.675% trading at $56.
NVDA 3.70% trading at $73.

Yes, they're "callable", but only in the final 6 months before maturity. So Yield to Worst ≈ Yield to Maturity at ~5.5%.

Hold to 2060 and you also pocket the upside:

• MSFT: +77% capital gain
• NVDA: +37% capital gain

[TreasuryBonds.com @Treasury__Bonds]

The highest yielding bond offerings for the MAG7 stocks:

Some of the these bond offerings have significant upside on top of their high yield.

Which do you think is most attractive?