🇪🇺 🇷🇺 There’s been a change in how European governments speak about the Russian threat. Within 48 hours, a wave of statements and mobilization across NATO’s eastern flank has coalesced into a clear and worrying pattern.
🇵🇱 Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says intelligence shared by Poland, Ukraine and NATO indicates Russia could eventually conduct drone or missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine while attempting to portray them as accidents.
🇫🇷 In Paris, Emmanuel Macron emerged from a three-hour meeting with France's intelligence chiefs and political leaders warning that the Russian hybrid threat has intensified. France is reinforcing protection of critical infrastructure and defense-production sites.
🇩🇪 Those warnings are not emerging in a vacuum. Germany has formally attributed the attempted explosive-drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia, with subsequent investigations reportedly tracing the operation toward Russian military intelligence. German authorities are also investigating a professionally prepared weapons cache discovered in woodland near Berlin, two handguns and ammunition that officials say were intended for future attacks, including possible links to a foreign intelligence service.
🇪🇪 Further north, Estonia's security cabinet is preparing for another contingency: a possible Russian general mobilization. Prime Minister Kristen Michal says such a move could change Estonia's threat assessment sufficiently for Tallinn to close its border with Russia immediately.
🇱🇹 Lithuania, meanwhile, has detailed evacuation planning for a major military emergency. One of the evacuation routes from Vilnius leads toward Poland, where authorities in Podlaskie are preparing the region to serve as a transit corridor for evacuees from the Baltic states.
That planning predates this week's warnings and should not be interpreted as evidence that an attack is believed to be imminent.
But the regional context has deteriorated.
🇧🇾 Belarus is currently conducting military exercises near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, including areas around the strategically critical Suwałki Gap.
And earlier this week, a NATO fighter shot down a suspected Russian attack drone after it entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus.
None of this establishes that European governments expect a Russian attack in the immediate future. What it does show is something more concrete: governments from Warsaw to Paris to Tallinn are publicly preparing their populations and institutions for contingencies that until recently largely remained inside military planning documents.
BREAKING: Iran is seriously considering a ground incursion into Kuwait to seize U.S. military bases, including Camp Buehring and either Camp Arifjan or Ali Al Salem Air Base, if Washington continues its military campaign against Tehran, according to Prominent Iranian journalist and analyst Mahdi Khanalizadeh and former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.
Mahdi Khanalizadeh: "Kuwait is considered one of Iran's principal options for a potential ground incursion aimed at seizing the two U.S. military bases located within the country."
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki previously said Iran could launch a ground operation to capture U.S. troops and take them as prisoners to Iran if necessary, while Iranian officials have warned that "no political border will be safe" and that Tehran would shift to a "full-scale offensive" if U.S. strikes continue.
Pictures show the total loss of 81-0005, an E-3G “Sentry” Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft with the U.S. Air Force’s 552nd Air Control Wing based out of Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, following yesterday’s Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The strike appears to have purposefully targeted the most important part of the E-3, that being rear of the aircraft which holds its rotating radar dome, containing several sensitive instruments including antennas for the E-3’s AN/APY-2 Surveillance Radar System.
CNN has confirmed reports that Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles, likely Khorramshahr-4s, at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean on Friday, over 2,300 miles from Iran, with neither missile impacting the joint American-British military base, according to a U.S. official.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has issued a warning to law enforcement agencies in California stating that they have recent intelligence that indicates “Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the U.S. conducted strikes against Iran,” according to reporting from ABC News.
You are at the beach in the UAE and see a Shahed-136 flying overhead, and later a UAEAF F-16 firing a Sidewinder to shoot down the drone. That’s how crazy the war in the Gulf region is nowadays.
Another US MQ-9 Reaper UCAV was shot down by IRGC Aerospace Force air defense over Hormozgan province. Some sources write that this is an Israeli Hermes-900, but this is clearly US MQ-9 with Hellfire missiles
According to three U.S. officials who spoke to the Washington Post, Russia has provided Iran with intelligence on locations of U.S. ships, aircraft, personnel and assets in the Middle East in what has been described as a "pretty comprehensive effort." When asked earlier this week about the influence of China or Russia in the conflict with Iran, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth responded "they're not really a factor here."
Britain’s allies in the Gulf and Cyprus have accused Sir Keir Starmer of failing to do enough to protect the region and UK citizens from Iranian missile strikes.
Cyprus’s high commissioner to the UK said the “least” his country expected was for the government to provide a robust defence of the island that is home to two British bases - The Times
Pretty Interesting RAF activity around Cyprus this evening.
-2 Voyager Tankers just launching
-1 Voyager Tanker returning from station over Jordan
-MQ-9 Protector UAV On Station
-Gov Falcon Inbound somewhere
Confirmed the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was damaged by Iran, thanks to an incredible image from our friends @planet
Debris from the damaged face has fallen on the roof of the main building and there is water runoff from the firefighting effort
⚠️ 𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 ⚠️
🇮🇷🇺🇸 | American Pilot Rescued in Kuwait…
Footage of Kuwaiti locals approaching one of the shot down American pilots this morning.
“Are you OK? Thank you for helping us.”
🚨🇨🇾 WATCH: The moment a fighter jet scrambles from RAF Akrotiri
It comes after air raid sirens sounded across the area and the Cypriot government issued a mandatory evacuation order for Akrotiri
A local Cypriot newspaper claims that an unknown object has struck inside the fenced area at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.
The same article claims no known injuries, but that Cyprus and UK forces are on alert for a possible further "strike"
https://t.co/djijJr58Nu
Thick black smoke seen rising from the site of Iranian drone and/or missile strike on Camp de la Paix, a French naval base in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.