Hey @grok what was the single biggest catalyst that triggered the dot-com bubble crash in 2000?
Are we seeing similar warning signs today and what could trigger a big correction or crash?
Be brutally honest
I’ve seen this advice being given to young people lately:
“You need to drink more alcohol and socialize”
No, you don’t
Socialize more? Yes. But you don’t need alcohol to do it
If you enjoy a drink here and there with friends, fair enough
But if you’re uncomfortable in your own skin, feel like you need to get drunk to socialize, or use alcohol as an excuse to make bad decisions…
That points to something deeper.
And alcohol isn’t going to solve it.
I’ve seen this advice being given to young people lately:
“You need to drink more alcohol and socialize”
No, you don’t
Socialize more? Yes. But you don’t need alcohol to do it
If you enjoy a drink here and there with friends, fair enough
But if you’re uncomfortable in your own skin, feel like you need to get drunk to socialize, or use alcohol as an excuse to make bad decisions…
That points to something deeper.
And alcohol isn’t going to solve it.
I was investing in 2000 (43 yo managing a $200m venture fund). I was investing in 2008 (51 yo managing a private hedge fund). I was investing in 2020 (63 yo managing a mining stock fund). Each represented the bursting of a bubble. Thursday, November 5, 2026 was deja vu for me. I have seen this movie three times.
Party is over. Consequences of ZIRP, and free money driven "Everything Bubble" are coming home. Persistent inflation is the pin. Stock bulls better rethink their buy the dip strategy IMO. It's a long way down.
@Roveniq The number of young people drinking has been near historic lows so they’re already doing the right thing. Don’t need older generations telling them to pick up a bad habit
BLOWS my mind how bullish people were despite ALL the signs of VIOLENT correction
Now start getting ready to buy b/c GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES are arising
Those that have been patient and sitting on some cash will be HEAVILY rewarded
Things are setting up for a VIOLENT market correction:
-Ai bubble fears & leaders screaming for regulation
-10Y at ~5%
-Oil > $100
-Inflation risk back in play
-Fed rate hike fears
-Buffett indicator near historic extremes
-Real estate cracking in major metros
-30Y mortgage at ~7%
-Speculative leverage showing cracks
-Election uncertainty
So we've got...
Expensive stocks + 5% risk free + $100 oil + sticky inflation + Ai bubble fears + leverage + election uncertainty
Buckle up cause it might get VERY bumpy...
BLOWS my mind how bullish people were despite ALL the signs of VIOLENT correction
Now start getting ready to buy b/c GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES are arising
Those that have been patient and sitting on some cash will be HEAVILY rewarded
I can’t shake the feeling that selling your high-beta tech stocks already down 40-70%, to buy low/no growth consumer names at 30-100x earnings…might not be so smart, either.
@x9178391 QQQ is down 13% from its high. Could definitely drop further but some would say that it'd be sensible to nibble as it's very difficult to time the market.
A meaningful part of my portfolio is comprised of index funds but the rest are individuals stocks. In terms of the biggest opportunities, I'm looking toward high quality tech companies I've been wanting/looking to buy that are getting to levels where they are becoming 'attractive.'
@ConnorCMcEvoy You don't. For most investors, dollar cost averaging into US index funds is the most sensible thing to do. Nibble when there's big drawdowns.